April 11, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

April 11, 1814 Napoleon Bonaparte abdicated as emperor of France and was banished to the island of Elba. Go to article
April 11. 1900: the first modern submarine, designed and built by John Philip Holland, USS Holland, is acquired by the U.S. Navy, marking a major advancement in naval warfare.
April 11, 1945: Liberation of Buchenwald.
April 11, 1968: Civil Rights Act signed into law.

Coming soon: More details about assassinations
The Trump administration plans to release additional files related to the 1968 assassinations of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, the late father of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., in the coming days.

Welcome to the neutral phase
La Niña has come to an end after just a few months and its counterpart, El Niño, hasn’t bothered to step up as the next global weather influencer. This neutral phase is forecast to last into at least early fall.

Italian fashion houses to merge
Prada struck a deal to buy rival Versace for $1.375 billion on Thursday. The price tag was a substantial discount from the roughly $2.15 billion, including debt, that Capri (then known as Michael Kors) paid for Versace in 2018.

Archaeologists may have discovered the birthplace of Alexander the Great’s grandmother

Elusive neutrinos’ mass just got halved — and it could mean physicists are close to solving a major cosmic mystery

La Niña finished after just a few months

Largest-ever brain ‘connectome’ built by having a mouse watch ‘The Matrix’ and ‘Star Wars’

What are mRNA vaccines, and how do they work?

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Up in arms … two Père David’s deer squabble at a nature reserve in Yancheng, eastern China
Photograph: AFP/Getty

Skagit Valley, US
‘Snow geese warming up for the return trip to Wrangel Island, Russia, where they spend their summers, after wintering in the Skagit Valley, Washington.’
Photograph: Edmund Lowe

​​​​​​​Kyoto, Japan
‘Visitors enjoy the plum blossom at Kitano Tenmangū. The shrine grounds are home to a large number of ume (plum) trees, and are one of the most famous spots for ume-mi (plum-viewing).’
Photograph: Hugo Anaya
Market Closes for April 11^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Those who cannot love want power.  -Guggenbuhl-Craig.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 2.5%, with 11 of 11 sectors higher, led by materials stocks.
As of market close, 173 of 218 stocks fell, while 44 rose.
Tilray Brands Inc. led the declines, falling 2.9%, while Seabridge Gold Inc. increased 11%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 2.5% to 23,588
* 11 of 11 sectors rose
** Materials gained, up 4.8%
** Energy gained, up 3.1%
* Crude oil rose 2.5% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 0.1% to $3.55/mmbtu
* Gold rose 2.4% to $3,232/oz
* Silver rose 4.6% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA CN) +11%: Gold Mining Stocks Climb as Bullion Rises on Flight to Havens
* Novagold Resources Inc. (NG CN) +11%
* Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG CN) +11%: Torex Prelim. 1Q Payable Output 59,630 Gold-Equivalent Ounces
* Energy Fuels Inc/Canada (EFR CN) +8%
* Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN CN) +7.9% Decliners:
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) -2.9%: Global X Marijuana Life Falls 4.5%; Tilray Brands Leads Loss
* Power Corp. of Canada (POW CN) -2.7%
* Quebecor Inc. (QBR/B CN) -1.8%
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP CN) -1.6%: Trump Tariff Surcharges Are Now Getting Added to Customer Bills
* First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCR-U CN) -1.5%
The Toronto Stock Exchange got back to winning ways again Friday, but investors cannot be blamed if they are wary about this continuing into next week given the wild fluctuations in equity markets across North America in recent days amid inflation and growth concerns amid trade wars and some negative technical analysis on commodities.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up 572.93 points, or 2.5%, to 23,587.80. Of sectors today, the biggest gainers were Base Metals, up 4%, and Energy, up 3%.
Gold traded at a fresh record high late afternoon on Friday as the dollar continued to plunge amid an escalating tariff between the United States and China, while another U.S. inflation measure weakened last month.
Gold for June delivery was last seen up $71.30 to US$3,248.80 per ounce, rising off Thursday’s record close of $3,177.50.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Friday after a report U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump Administration could force the suspension of Iran’s oil exports, even as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies intensified, threatening to slow global growth and weaken demand as supply is on the rise.
WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up $1.43 to settle at US$61.50 per barrel, while June Brent crude was last seen up $1.39 to US$64.72.
This week’s issue of ‘Technicals with Dave’ from Rosenberg Research focuses on commodities, and is not optimistic about the outlook for WTI crude oil or gold.
On WTI oil, Rosenberg Research said for many months it has been keeping a “weather eye” on the trading range that oil has been engaged in since late 2022.
“Time and again, sell-offs were rebuffed by support on either side of US$63 per barrel. This time might be different,” it added.
In recent days, the research noted WTI crude oil has traded as low as US$55.12 per barrel before recovering, and the breakdown had occurred even as the weekly Coppock Curve was already in a confirmed downtrend.
Rosenberg said that, plus the expectation that the indicator will remain weak into late April/early May, allows for still lower lows.
That scenario bolsters the notion that the breakdown is “decisive”.
Previous support at US$63.57 to US$71.25 per barrel, and particularly US$63.57 – US$67.71, should now be regarded as “potentially formidable resistance”, it added.
As for potential downside risk, the research said US$54.40 to US$50.33 per barrel is an important Fibonacci target, with the upper part of that range a 61.8% retracement of the 2020-2022 uptrend.
The lower level is where the current downtrend from January’s high will be 50% of the length of the 2022-2023 downdraft. If that range is violated, we would look to US$43.78, it added.
In the same note, Rosenberg said “some of the shine appears to be coming off gold”, noting the multi-month rally has carried gold to just below long-standing resistance of US$3,200 to US$3,300 per ounce.
“At this point, however, the weekly Coppock Curve is overbought and peaking. In that regard, the indicator should move into a confirmed downtrend by the end of this month and potentially remain under pressure through June. This suggests that any test of the recent highs will run the risk of creating a bearish divergence with weekly indicators.”
According to the research, the resulting pressures would be expected to at least consolidate the gains from last November’s low.
However, it said, the risk is that a correction will be a Fibonacci retracement of the larger rally from the October 2023 low at US$1,809 to the recent US$3,164 high.
For example, it cited a US$2,647 to US$2,328 per ounce range on a chart that
encompasses a 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the 2023-2025 rally.
At the lower end of that Fibonacci range, there is a fair amount of chart support in the US$2,450 to US$2,286 per ounce range, it added, Meanwhile, in terms of economic factors behind inflation and bear market concerns, Rosenberg Research in a separate noted said the “recession label” was all over today’s “horrible” University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
“Job and income views took another very big hit,” it added in noting the preliminary reading on the headline index sagged badly in April to 50.8 from 57.0 in March and under the consensus call of 53.8.
“Every income cohort saw sentiment decline sharply — the high end consumer, which had been keeping the glue together, has given up, sliding to its lowest level since June 2022.”
This came towards the end of a week that saw a trade war between the U.S. and China in particular escalate quickly, and Treasury yields move higher like they did in the market turmoil of March 2020.
As Douglas Porter Chief Economist at BMO Economics noted, the net result of an eventful week is that “reality caught up with the TSX”, holding it about flat this week (as of Friday morning), after faring better than most last week.
According to Porter, the Bank of Canada now has a “delicate” decision to make around whether or not to cut its benchmark interest rate again next Wednesday, especially with the April 28 federal election due less than two weeks after.
“Canada has gone from the forefront of the trade war to backstage, and we estimate the average weighted U.S. tariff on the economy is now “only” a bit less than 5% (for now).
Since we had built in something much heavier into our forecast initially, we are making a small, almost technical, upward adjustment to GDP this week (from 0.5% growth this year and next to 0.7% and 1.0%), albeit still with two quarters of declining activity this year in Q2 and Q3.
Make no mistake, that’s still a very soft performance and is below consensus, but it’s probably just firm enough to prompt the Bank to hold next week,” Porter wrote.
In contrast, an reflecting market uncertainties, Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said given the balance of risks on growth and inflation, he sees a case for a rate cut next week, and hopes the BoC judges it the same way.
“Truth be told, the decision could go the other way, given that the economic consequences of waiting until June would not be material. The advantage of moving now is that the accompanying Monetary Policy Report can’t avoid talking about the downside risks to growth. With that gloomy backdrop, we could all use a little cheer from a 25 basis point Easter present from our central bankers.”
US
By Rita Nazareth, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s gyrations shook markets anew, with stocks wiping out losses to extend their best weekly rally since 2023.
The rebound came as a selloff in longer-term Treasuries and the dollar abated, following a few chaotic days that underscored fears foreign investors are beating a retreat from American assets.
Volatility shows little signs of easing as concerns that President Donald Trump’s fast-evolving trade policy is not only shaking the global economy, but threatening the US status as the world’s safe haven.
The S&P 500 jumped about 2% on a report that a Federal Reserve official said the central bank is ready to help stabilize markets, if needed. US 30-year yields dropped, while still remaining up by 45 basis points since last Friday.
“Markets remain emotionally charged,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Markets are still searching for footing amid unresolved trade tensions, earnings uncertainty, and macroeconomic headwinds. While this week’s gains are encouraging, they shouldn’t be mistaken for a clear turning point.”
Not since the pandemic has there been this little clarity on the outlook for economies, markets and businesses, with China unleashing retaliatory measures and Trump pausing some levies only hours after they took effect.
Variations of “uncertainty,” “unknowns” and “turbulence” arose again and again as three of the biggest US banks kicked off the industry’s earnings reports on Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he expects “a kerfuffle” in Treasuries that prompts a Fed intervention.
If conditions become disorderly, the central bank “would absolutely be prepared” to help stabilize financial markets, Boston Fed President Susan Collins told the Financial Times.
For now, she noted markets are continuing to function well, with no liquidity concerns overall.
“Fed put in play. That should ease some anxiety for now,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park.
“The volatility itself is not a healthy sign. The sharp intraday rallies may seem comforting on the surface, but the whipsaws are a manifestation of overarching uncertainty.”
The S&P 500’s more than 10% intra intraweek trading range rivals the sharp price swings of the depths of the pandemic.
“Roller coaster is not a technical term, but it is probably the best adjective to describe price action across equity markets this week,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
“While there has been some recent technical progress, we recognize uncertainty and risks remain high, but argue it comes with the territory of any major market low.”
Signs of a capitulation were evident over the last week as momentum and breadth indicators reached levels commensurate with other major turning points in equity markets, he noted.
But this doesn’t imply stocks will immediately shoot higher or that the period of high volatility is over, Turnquist said.
“Sentiment is the main market driver as there is little visibility,” said Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments.
“The tariff pause raised hopes for a path to negotiated resolutions and that the administration is paying attention to the markets. Now we wait to see what some of these trade deals look like.”
Despite President Trump’s pause on broad tariffs, investors are still looking to shun US assets in favor of Europe and other developed markets, according to the latest MLIV Pulse survey.
Of the 203 respondents to a poll conducted April 9-11, after Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on levies for most countries, 81% plan to either keep their exposure to US assets the same or decrease it.
More than a quarter of respondents said they’re curbing their investment more than they had anticipated before the president unveiled global tariffs of as much as 50% earlier this month.
Investors should sell any stock rallies until the US and China de-escalate the trade war and the Fed steps in, said Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist said Trump’s tariffs and the resulting market turmoil were turning US exceptionalism into “US repudiation.”
He recommends a short position on stocks — until the S&P 500 hits 4,800 points — and a long bet on two-year Treasuries.
“There’s a decent chance the bottom is in,” said Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL Financial.
“There’s plenty of evidence of a washout. But following the sharp rally off the lows, the risk-reward trade-off doesn’t look all that compelling, especially with the intensifying trade war with China.”
US first-quarter earnings season kicked off on Friday, with big banks reporting mixed results.
JPMorgan’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, but CEO Dimon struck a cautious tone about prospects for the US economy.
Wells Fargo & Co. missed analysts’ estimates for net interest income in the first quarter.
Morgan Stanley’s stock-traders delivered first-quarter revenue that exceeded analyst predictions.
To Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays Plc, until Treasuries stabilize and start to behave normally, risk assets will struggle.
While the rout in bonds eased somewhat on Friday, longer-dated yields saw one their biggest weekly jumps since the 1980s.
The rout, which was set off by the US trade war that’s shaken global markets, is threatening to deal another hit to the economy by pushing up borrowing costs more broadly.
It also cast doubt on Treasuries’ status as the world’s safe haven as they slid along with the stock market this week, sending investors into other assets like the Swiss franc, gold and the Japanese yen.
Several Wall Street economists maintained their forecasts for a sharp slowdown in US economic growth and warned recession risk is still elevated despite the Trump administration’s decision this week to delay major tariffs on a wide range of trading partners.
The lingering pessimism among economists contrasts somewhat with the signal from the stock market, which has rallied since Trump announced Wednesday that he was implementing a 90-day pause on previously announced “reciprocal” tariffs for countries other than China and raising the duty on Chinese imports to a whopping 145%.
In fact, Friday brought a fresh signal that consumers were queasy even before Wednesday’s policy shift, with a plunge in sentiment as inflation expectations soared to multi-decades highs.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1%
* The euro rose 1.2% to $1.1340
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3075
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 143.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.9% to $83,782.45
* Ether rose 2.2% to $1,563.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.47%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $61.50 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.7% to $3,231.73 an ounce

–With assistance from Robert Brand, Julien Ponthus and Anand
Krishnamoorthy.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Burdens are for shoulders strong enough to carry them. –Margaret Mitchell, 1900-1949.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com