December 17, 2021 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
Full moon this weekend: Known as the Cold Moon, so-called because this is how December’s full moon was known by Native American tribes.  It is the final full moon of 2021, reaching its peak fullness at 4.35am on 19 December. It comes just three days before the Winter Solstice, which marks the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.

On Dec. 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright made the first successful man-powered airplane flight, near Kitty Hawk, N.C. Go to article »

SATURNALIA, December 17-23: Roman Masters served their slaves.
1790-Aztec calendar stone discovered.

Betty White is turning 100 and we’re all invited.  Long live the queen!

The first true millipede has been discovered in Australia. It has the most legs of any living animal.  We’re running out of days to say it so … #NOSCARYBUGS2021!!!

There’s a reason we can’t help but love holiday songs. They’re basically scientifically engineered ear worms. 
 PHOTOS OF THE DAY
The sun rises behind a cargo ship off the north-east coast of England
CREDIT: Owen Humphreys/PA
Marte Leinan Lund of Norway leaps during a trial jump for the FIS Nordic Combined World Cup
CREDIT: Christian Bruna/EPA
A man relaxes against a lighthouse with his bicycle on the French Caribbean island
CREDIT: Christophe Archambault/AFP/Getty Images

Market Closes for December 17^th, 2021

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
     Whatever method you use to pick stocks, your ultimate success or failure will depend o your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed.  It isn’t the head but the stomach that determines the fate of the stock picker. -Peter Lynch, Fidelity Investments, Beating the Street, 1994.
Canada:
By Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian financial and energy stocks fell Friday, and those drops in Canada’s two largest industry sectors weighed on the market as the S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 20,739.01 in Toronto. Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.5%. Enghouse Systems Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 6.7%. Today, 87 of 233 shares fell, while 143 rose; 3 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financial stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, poised for the best year since 2019
* This quarter, the index rose 3.3%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.7%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.9% below its 52-week high on Nov. 16, 2021 and 19.9% above its low on Jan. 29, 2021
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.31t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.02% compared with 14.13% in the previous session and the average of 12.30% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Financials | -50.3197| -0.7| 7/21
* Energy | -25.0659| -1.0| 6/17
* Industrials | -4.1594| -0.2| 19/11
* Health Care | 4.3679| 2.7| 9/0
* Consumer Discretionary | 6.0286| 0.8| 11/2
* Consumer Staples | 6.3752| 0.8| 9/4
* Real Estate | 7.4364| 1.2| 22/1
* Materials | 9.0213| 0.4| 29/24
* Communication Services | 10.4599| 1.1| 6/1
* Utilities | 11.9587| 1.3| 14/2
* Information Technology | 23.3115| 1.1| 11/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* TD Bank | -18.0600| -1.5| 98.5| 30.9
* Bank of Montreal | -11.5500| -1.9| 126.4| 38.6
* Canadian Natural Resources | -9.0660| -2.2| -5.4| 63.1
* BCE | 3.4920| 0.9| 111.3| 20.7
* Rogers Communications| 4.1740| 3.0| 30.6| -0.5
* Shopify | 9.0770| 0.7| 116.1| 18.6

US:
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Volatility gripped financial markets, with stock moves magnified by the quarterly expiration of options and futures. In a session of heavy trading volume, the S&P 500 extended its weekly slide. With the holidays fast approaching, it could have been the last day of 2021 with enough liquidity for investors to trade in and out of large positions.  The dollar climbed after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rates could rise as early as March, following a decision to end asset purchases sooner than planned.  The Treasury curve flattened, with the spread between five and 30-year bonds near Friday’s lows. In the last couple of days, central banks in the U.S. and Europe have pivoted –- at varying speeds — toward tighter policy. They now see reining in prices as a higher priority than protecting output and employment from further pandemic fallout. Some analysts have warned that the Fed might need to end its upcoming hiking cycle sooner rather than later, with the recent plunge in long-term yields suggesting economic growth could be at risk. Such backdrop has investors questioning whether stocks are due for a rougher patch, following the surge from pandemic lows. It has also put highly valued shares such as tech companies on the spotlight. The cohort of marquee names like Apple Inc., Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. has faced intense gyrations, surging in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed decision, tumbling on the next day and posting mild losses Friday.

Comments:
* “Even though we’re coming from a place of very liquid markets and a lot of accommodation, the directional change and the pull forward in the taper schedule and the potential rate-hike schedule… this is a velocity change that we’re seeing and that’s really what the market is digesting,” Anna Han, equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, told Bloomberg Television.
* “Our advice to investors is to stay invested, but be cautious.  While it’s generally a wise idea to stay invested through any downturns or periods of volatility, it’s also important for investors to know their own risk tolerance,” said Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management.
* “The cyclical value sectors such as energy, materials and industrials have historically done well leading up to the start of Fed rate hikes. We wouldn’t be surprised to see value stocks make another run as the economy picks up some speed after the latest waves of Covid-19 variants fade — hopefully soon,” said Jeffrey Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial.

In another sign that investors are wary about the impacts of tighter policy on frothier industries, the MSCI World Growth Index of companies with stronger earnings expansion has underperformed its value counterpart this month. The old stock market adage of “buy the first hike, sell the penultimate rate hike” could go wrong this time with inflation running hot, according to Bank of America Corp. “Little cracks” were appearing in megacap tech before tightening even began, Michael Hartnett, BofA’s chief investment strategist, wrote in a note. He remains bearish until investor positioning “shows full-blown capitulation” or a credit event on Wall Street causes central banks to announce a reversal of tightening.

Corporate highlights:
* Elon Musk offloaded a second batch of Tesla Inc. shares in a matter of days and is now three-quarters of the way done selling 10% of his stake in the company.
* FedEx Corp. jumped after raising its outlook and posting earnings that handily beat analysts’ estimates.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. slumped after the electric-truck maker’s debut earnings report revealed a slower-than-expected increase in production.
* Darden Restaurants Inc., the operator of Olive Garden restaurants, dropped after its forecast fell short of estimates and the company said its chief executive officer will retire next year.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.8% to $1.1239
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.3234
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 113.74 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 1.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to -0.38%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.7% to $70.45 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
–With assistance from Sunil Jagtiani, Abigail Moses, Peyton Forte and Emily Graffeo.
Have  a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
When he shall die, take him and cut him out in little stars, and he will make the face of heaven so fine
that all the world will be in love with night, and pay no worship to the garish sun. –William Shakespeare, 1564-1616.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com