August 21, 2015 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On August 21^st, 1810, Lady Granville wrote to her sister, Lady Morpeth:

Sandon [home of Lord Granville’s sister, Lady Harrowby] is a very modern place with young plantations but the ground lying very prettily and the woods are all well bestowed.  Of comforts and luxuries I never had an idea before – the rooms are so full of couches, armchairs, flowers, books footstools etc. that one’s difficulty is where to settle in the midst of so much possibility of enjoyment.  The flower garden to which everything opens is beautiful, and a greenhouse with sofas in it . . . the very sight of which would make my grandmother [Lady Spencer] and Miss Trimmer [her governess] faint away.  Lady Harrowby is perfectly kind and amiable, but I do not think her quite well – she is oppressed with her situation [pregnancy] and I do think an eighth Ryder [the family name] must incline one to sing á quoi bon. –from The Book of Days.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Visitors admire a display at the Southport Flower Show in Southport, England. The show, first held in 1924, is held annually for four days in August and is the largest independent flower show in Britain. Andrew Yates/Reuters

People interact with ‘Pixel Wave 2015,’ a projection art installation by France’s Miguel Chevalier and local designers Carolyn Kan and Depression, during the Singapore Night Festival at the Singapore Design Center Friday. ‘Pixel Wave 2015’ features geometric patterns that react to movements and interactions of people. The festival features local and international light installations and performances. Edgar Su/Reuters

Market Closes for August 21^st, 2015

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

When you have only two pennies left in the world, buy a loaf of bread with one and a lily with the other. –Chinese Proverb.

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks slumped a fifth day, closing at the lowest level in almost two years, as global markets plunged with commodities amid growing concern economic growth is slowing.

     Equities tumbled the most since September 2011 this week, after manufacturing data from China slowed to the weakest since the global financial crisis. Energy producers, the worst- performing industry in the Canadian benchmark this year, plunged 8.9 percent this week, trading at a March 2009 low. Crude prices capped an eighth straight week of losses, the longest slump since 1986, and dipped to less than $40 a barrel in New York for the first time since 2009.

     Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender, tumbled 1.7 percent as financial services companies retreated 2 percent. Canada’s largest banks begin reporting third-quarter earnings Aug. 25.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 263.33 points, or 1.9 percent, to 13,473.67 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, a December 2013 low. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has fallen 5.6 percent this week, the worst drop since September 2011.

     “China and the emerging markets are starting to slow significantly,” said James Thorne, a fund manager at Caldwell Investment Management in Toronto. His firm manages about C$1 billion ($759 million). “It’s on the forefront of everybody’s minds. Canada is viewed as a commodity-based economy and international investors are pulling money out of Canada.”

     The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 3.1 percent into a correction and the S&P 500 fell 3.2 percent in New York, the biggest decline since November 2011.

     The MSCI All-Country World Index of developed and developing markets sank 2.7 percent, the most in almost two years. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased 4.3 percent as global markets retreated. European shares tumbled into a correction while equities in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Taiwan entered bear markets.                      

     The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index for China from Caixin Media and Markit Economics was at 47.1 in August, compared with a median estimate of 48.2 and the final reading of 47.8 the previous month. Numbers less than 50 indicate contraction. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner.

     Energy producers are the worst-performing industry in the S&P/TSX this year pacing declines with a 23 percent drop. Crude has slumped more than 30 percent from this year’s June peak amid concern global growth is slowing.

     Baytex Energy Corp. plunged 10 percent after the company said it will suspend its dividend and cut capital spending plans for 2016.

     The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks a basket of 22 resources from crude to gold, sank 1.6 percent to a 2002 low. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. plunged 7.4 percent as copper retreated.

     Eldorado Gold Corp. plunged 14 percent, the most since January, after the gold producer said it would suspend operations in northern Greece. Eldorado is struggling to develop mines in the face of government operation, describing the Greek ministry of energy as “openly hostile.”

     Goldcorp Inc. rose 0.7 percent as gold capped its biggest weekly gain since January with a 4.2 percent increase. The roiling equity markets has investors seeking a haven in gold, seen as an alternative investment. Gold producers rallied 6.1 percent this week.

US

By Joseph Ciolli and Oliver Renick

     (Bloomberg) — Turbulence in financial markets gathered momentum amid intensifying concern over slowing global growth, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a correction and giving other stock gauges their worse losses since 2011.

     More than $3.3 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities after China’s decision to devalue its currency spurred a wave of selling across emerging markets. The worries over slower economic growth come as a strong dollar and plunge in oil prices take a toll on corporate earnings at the same time the Federal Reserve is contemplating the first boost to interest rates since 2006.

     “For much of this year, the glass was considered half full and now people the last 48 hours are thinking it’s looking more empty,” George Hashbarger, who oversees $224 million as chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Knoxville, Tennessee- based Quintium Advisors LLC, said by phone. “This is more like October than it is buy-the-dip.”

     Volatility surged as Standard & Poor’s 500 Index capped the worst week in three years while Europe entered a correction and stocks from Hong Kong to Indonesia tumbled into bear markets. Junk bond yields rose to the highest since October 2012 and U.S. Treasuries had the largest weekly gain in five months. Oil sank below $40 a barrel for the first time since 2009 and was set for its longest losing streak since 1986.

     The S&P 500 dropped 3.2 percent, the most since November 2011, to below 2,000. The index is down more than 7 percent from a record after sinking below a trading range that has supported it for most of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points, as is down 10 percent from its record high in May.

     Investors are selling the biggest winners of 2015. Companies that have come to be known as the Fab Five — Netflix Inc., Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Google Inc. and Apple Inc.–have seen $97 billion in market value erased over two days. Losses have pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index down 7 percent, the biggest two-day decline since 2008. Apple entered a bear market, dropping 20 percent from a February high.

     To Apple and energy shares already snared in a bear market, add semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, the Dow joins biotechnology, small-caps, media, transportation and commodity companies in a correction.

     The VIX, the benchmark gauge of U.S. equity options, more than doubled during the week for its largest gain ever amid demand for contracts to protect against further losses. It is at the highest level since 2011.

     Before this week, U.S. equities had held their ground throughout 2015. The S&P 500 had stayed within a range roughly tracking its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, boosted by signs the economy is recovering and support from central banks. The benchmark index hadn’t had a decline of more than 5 percent all year.

     The selloff “simply means that all areas of the market are in gear now, and unfortunately it’s on the downside,” Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., which oversees $110 billion, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers” with Cory Johnson and Olivia Sterns. “Investors have to be much more careful now with that technical development.”

     The week’s retreat from the riskiest assets picked up speed as data showing a gauge of China manufacturing at the lowest level in more than six years highlighted the challenges facing the nation’s economy.

     The MSCI All-Country World Index tumbled 2.7 percent to the lowest since October. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 2.2 percent, with the Malaysian ringgit and South Korean won leading currencies lower. Investors have sought safety in the yen, which strengthened for a third day against the dollar. Gold also gained.

     “This week’s selloff started from the yuan’s devaluation, which generated speculation about the true state of China’s economy,” Hertta Alava, who helps oversee the equivalent of $395 million as the head of emerging markets at FIM Asset Management Ltd. in Helsinki, said by e-mail. “China’s PMI was weak, so it is just adding fuel to this negativity.”

     Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.3 percent, taking declines since an April high beyond 20 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 4.3 percent, bringing the week’s loss to more than 10 percent and coming within one point of erasing all gains since the government began efforts to prop up the market in July.

     “The whole world’s looking a little bit sad,” said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners Ltd. in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion. “China still looks really worrying on a number of fronts.”

     The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 3.3 percent, as the selloff engulfed all western European markets and industries in the benchmark gauge. The index had its worst weekly loss since 2011, down 6.5 percent. It is down 13 percent from an April high, entering a correction.

     Trading patterns show the declines are poised to slow. The 14-day relative strength index on the MSCI All-Country World Index closed below 30 on Thursday, a level that signals an asset is poised to rebound, according to some technical analysts.

     Amid the selloff, the S&P 500 is trading at 17.5 times earnings. That’s down from 18.9 times a month ago, which was near a five-year high, though still exceeds the five-year historical average of 16.1 times profit.

     U.S. Treasuries had their biggest weekly gain in five months as demand for fixed income soared. Ten-year notes drew support from signs the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates close to zero for longer, and from a decline in oil prices that helped push a gauge of inflation expectations toward its lowest since 2010.

     Futures show that traders see a 34 percent chance the Fed will raise interest rates at its September meeting, down from a 48 percent probability at the end of last week.                        

     Government debt from Australia to Britain also gained this week, driving the average yield on developed-nation bonds to a three-month low.

     Yields on junk bonds rose to an average 7.39 percent, the highest since October 2012, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch bond indexes. The premium investors demand to hold junk bonds over investment-grade debt climbed to the most since December, the indexes show.

     Oil briefly plunged below $40 a barrel in New York for the first time in more than six years on signs the supply glut will be prolonged. The U.S. pumped crude in July at the fastest pace for the month since at least 1920, the American Petroleum Institute reported Thursday. Prices dropped for an eighth week, the longest streak since 1986.

     Copper extended its longest run of weekly declines since January, with aluminum, lead, nickel and zinc also dropping.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

A diamond is lost in the mud;

all are seeking it.

Some go to the East – or to the West,

Wishing to find it.

Is it lost in the river?

Or in the rocks?

Kabir, your servant, appreciates it

for its just value.

He will take it away,

warmly sheltered

in a corner of his heart.

Kabir

As ever,
 

Carolann

The longer the island of knowledge, the longer the shoreline of wonder.

                                                          -Ralph W. Sockman, 1889-1970

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7