November 23, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Read about an interesting trend in the foodie world in this week’s Maclean’s.   It claims that “there’s a revolution simmering in the kitchens of the nation’s restaurants…Electric stoves, gas ranges and convection ovens are being ripped out to make way for the Rational, a German-made beast that can bake, roast, broil, steam, grill, fry, dehydrate, poach and perfectly reheat food.  It’s called a combi oven, and it uses both dry heat and moist heat to cook large quantities of food in precisely the same way.  It can also bake a pizza, ear salmon and grill a steak at the same time.  The programmable Ratioanal is popular in Europe, where more than 85 per cent of commercial kitchens use combi ovens, but the company is just beginning to make inroads in Canada.  Most of the units which cost from $15,000 to $55,000, are sold to high-volume kitchens, although they do have a few well-heeled clients who have a smaller version at home (the most famous is the White House)…”

Off to the first holiday concert of the season tonight, aptly named Joy to The World at the Victoria Conservatory of Music.

And on this day in…

1623 – Benedict de Spinoza, was born.

1864 – Henri Toulouse-Lautrec was born.

1909 – The Wright brothers form a million-dollar corporation for the commercial manufacture of their airplanes.

1936 – The United States abandons the American embassy in Madrid, Spain, which is engulfed by civil war.

1942 – The film Casablanca premieres in New York City.

1945 – Wartime meat and butter rationing ends in the United States.

1968 – Four men hijack an American plane, with 87 passengers, from Miami to Cuba.

1980 – In Europe’s biggest earthquake since 1915, 3,000 people are killed in Italy.

Things work out best for those who make the best of how things work out. –John Wooden

photos of the day

November 24th, 2012

The Mars rover Curiosity drove 83 feet eastward during the 102nd Martian day, or sol, of the mission on November 18, 2012 in this handout image courtesy of NASA.

JPL-Caltech/NASA/AP

The sun rises over South Westnedge Avenue after a heavy fog settled over Kalamazoo, Mich.

Mark Bugnaski/The Kalamazoo Gazette/AP

Market Closes for November 23rd, 2012:

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, capping the biggest weekly gain in 11 months, as gold and oil advanced while the nation’s inflation rate remained near the bottom of the central bank’s target band for a third month in October.

Pretium Resources Inc. added 8.9 percent after an analyst with CIBC World Markets Inc. raised his rating on the stock.

Colossus Minerals Inc. and Centerra Gold Inc. rose at least 2.1 percent as the price of the metal rallied the most since Nov. 6.

Research In Motion Ltd. fell 3.5 percent a day after posting its biggest increase in more than three years. Gildan Activewear Inc. dropped 3 percent after an analyst with BofA/Merrill Lynch lowered the stock’s rating.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 60.14 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,213.24 in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge advanced 2.8 percent for the week, the biggest weekly gain since December 2011.

The Bank of Canada continuing to hold the benchmark interest rate at 1 percent “remains a positive for the equity market,” said John O’Connell, chief executive officer at Davis- Rea Ltd., from Toronto. His firm manages about C$575 million ($578.8 million). “The BoC keeps talking a courageous story about raising rates, but we continue to see modest economic growth.”

The Canada consumer price index rose 1.2 percent in October from a year ago, the same as the prior two months, as slower gains in energy prices blunted increases in property taxes and restaurant meals, Statistics Canada said today.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada, has held lending rates at 1 percent since September 2010. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the key interest rate will rise to 1.25 percent in the third quarter next year.

Gold mining companies, energy and financial stocks contributed most to gains on the S&P/TSX as nine of 10 industries advanced. Trading volume was 18 percent lower than the 30-day average at this time of the day.

Pretium Resources jumped 8.9 percent to C$14.15. Jeff Killeen, analyst with CIBC World Markets, raised the stock to sector perform from sector underperform after the company released an updated resource estimate for its Brucejack project showing a 66 percent increase to 8.5 million indicated ounces of gold.

Colossus Minerals added 4.4 percent to C$4.55 and Centerra gained 2.1 percent to C$9.90 as gold futures for December delivery added 1.3 percent to settle at $1,751.40 an ounce in New York. Gold rose 2.1 percent this week as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-week low.

Talisman Energy Inc. advanced 3.8 percent to C$11.68 and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. added 1.1 percent to C$27.94 as crude capped the biggest weekly gain in more than a month. Oil for January delivery rose 1 percent to settle at $88.28 a barrel in New York. Futures climbed 1.9 percent this week, the most since Oct. 12.

RIM, whose BlackBerry 10 smartphones are set to go on sale in February, fell 3.5 percent to C$11.61 a day after the stock rallied the most in more than three years. An analyst with National Bank Financial lifted his price target for U.S. shares to $15 from $12, saying sales of the new phones will be better than estimated.

Gildan, the best performing North American underwear stock this year, fell 3 percent to C$33.17. Chris Li, an analyst with BofA/Merrill Lynch, lowered the stock’s rating to neutral from buy.

US

By Lu Wang

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks had their biggest weekly rally since June after President Barack Obama expressed confidence on a budget agreement with Congress and data from China to Germany bolstered optimism about global growth.

All 10 groups except for utilities in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose during the Thanksgiving-shortened week. An index of homebuilders climbed 5.4 percent amid better-than-estimated housing data. Bank of America Corp. jumped 8.6 percent after an analyst said the lender may commit as much as $10 billion to dividends and share repurchases in 2013. Salesforce.com Inc. surged 11 percent after revenue beat estimates. Apple Inc. gained 8.3 percent, ending a streak of eight weekly losses.

The S&P 500 advanced 3.6 percent to 1,409.15 for the week, extending its 2012 gain to 12 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 421.37 points, or 3.4 percent, to 13,009.68.

Both gauges had the best week since June 8.

“What you’re seeing out of Washington before the break is a very cooperative tone,” Bill Greiner, who oversees $14 billion as chief investment officer at Mariner Wealth Advisors in Kansas City, Missouri, said in a phone interview. “There is a gathering sense that the deceleration in economic growth in China seems to be bottoming right now. Both of those areas are adding to a little bit strength in the market.”

The S&P 500 began the week with the biggest advance in two months after Obama met with senior Democrats and Republicans on Nov. 16 for talks to avoid a so-called fiscal cliff of $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts next year.

The index continued to climb after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas agreed to call a halt to more than a week of air strikes and missile attacks. Data showed the first expansion in China’s manufacturing industry in 13 months and an unexpected gain in German business confidence.

The S&P 500 rallied 1.3 percent on the last day of the week, posting the best post-Thanksgiving performance since 2007, as the American holiday shopping season began. The index has gained an average 0.6 percent during the week of Thanksgiving, according to data since World War II compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 0.15 percent in all calendar weeks in the same time frame.

Concern that Obama’s re-election set up a budget showdown with the Republican-controlled House of Representatives sent the S&P 500 down 7.7 percent from its 2012 high in September through Nov. 15. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Nov. 20 that the central bank doesn’t have the tools to offset the potential harm to the economy from the fiscal cliff.

“I don’t see a lot more downside to the markets even if we go off the fiscal cliff,” Brian Jacobsen, who helps oversee $208 billion as chief strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in San Francisco, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Nov. 20. “The fiscal cliff would be somewhat of a speed bump if you look at the long trajectory of history.”

Companies whose growth is most tied to economic swings led the rally over the week. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index rose 4.7 percent, the most since December 2011. Raw-materials producers, consumer-discretionary and technology companies gained the most among 10 S&P 500 groups, jumping at least 4.3 percent.

An S&P index of homebuilders climbed 5.4 percent, with all its 11 members rising, as sales of previously owned U.S. homes gained and confidence among U.S. homebuilders unexpectedly increased to a six-year high. PulteGroup Inc. surged 8.6 percent to $17.03 while Lennar Corp. added 7.1 percent to $38.68.

Lowe’s Cos., jumped 9.9 percent to $35.15 after the home- improvement retailer said fiscal third-quarter profit topped analysts’ estimates, helped by better merchandising decisions and the recovering U.S. housing market.

A measure of retailers in the S&P 500 rose 4.7 percent for the week. Black Friday marked the traditional beginning of the holiday shopping season in the U.S., when retailers lure customers with deep discounts.

Teen apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. rallied 8.6 percent to $44.40. Dollar Tree Inc., which sells everything from toys to pet food and cleaning supplies for $1 or less, jumped 8.3 percent to $42.03. Macy’s Inc., the second-largest U.S. department-store chain, added 3.9 percent to $41.73.

Bank of America rallied 8.6 percent, the most in the Dow, to $9.90. The lender has improved capital by the most among the biggest U.S. banks and could fare comparatively well after Federal Reserve stress tests, Ed Najarian, an analyst with International Strategy & Investment Group Inc., wrote in a note.

The bank, which may have the equivalent of about $30 billion in capital beyond the minimum required by regulators, may dole out $5 billion to $10 billion for dividends and stock buybacks next year, he wrote.

Salesforce.com rose 11 percent to $159.45. The software maker reported fiscal third-quarter sales that beat analysts’ estimates, benefiting from contracts with large corporate customers.

Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker, gained 4.5 percent to $27.70.

Apple advanced 8.3 percent to $571.50, after slumping as much as 25 percent from a record on Sept. 19. Even amid investor concerns about product shortages, stiffening smartphone and tablet competition and management changes, demand for Apple’s products remains strong and the stock slide is unfounded, Brian White, an analyst at Topeka Capital Markets, wrote in a report on Nov. 19.

Tyson Foods Inc. surged 14 percent to $19.25 for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The largest U.S. meat processor said profit will increase about 10 percent in fiscal 2014 and 2015 after remaining unchanged in the year ahead as the company adds more prepared foods and international sales.

Hewlett-Packard Co. slumped 3.2 percent, the most in the Dow, to $12.44. The company accused Autonomy Corp., the software maker it bought last year, of a broad range of financial falsehoods that contributed to a $8.8 billion writedown, adding to challenges facing Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman in the midst of a multiyear turnaround. Autonomy managers denied the allegations. Hewlett-Packard also forecast fiscal first-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates.

HP shares plunged 12 percent on Nov. 20 to the lowest level in 10 years. It rebounded 6.2 percent during the following two sessions.

Best Buy Co. tumbled 15 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $11.70. The consumer-electronics retailer posted a $10 million third-quarter net loss as sales at established stores fell more than expected. S&P and Fitch Ratings cut the retailer’s credit ratings.

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. declined 12 percent to $31.23. The largest U.S. iron-ore producer will delay parts of an expansion at an iron-ore project in Quebec and idle some production at two U.S. operations because of weaker demand for the steelmaking raw material.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

In the physical world there is an indestructible continuity of relations

between hot and cold, light and darkness, movement and repose,

as well as between the bass and treble notes of a piano.

This is because opposites do not bring confusion to the world; they bring harmony.

Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1901

As ever,

Carolann

Experience teaches only the teachable.

–Aldous Huxley, 1894-1963

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7