Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
September 19, 1960: LIFE magazine celebrates artist Anna Mary “Grandma” Moses’ 100th birthday by putting her on their cover
September 19, 2005: TV sitcom “How I Met Your Mother” premieres, starring Josh Radnor, Neil Patrick Harris, Cobie Smulders, Jason Segel and Alyson Hannigan
September 19, 2008: Struggling to stave off financial catastrophe, the Bush administration asked Congress for $700 billion to buy up troubled mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions. Go to article
Tiny ‘brains’ grown in the lab could become conscious and feel pain — and we’re not ready
Lab-grown brain tissue is too simple to experience consciousness, but as innovation progresses, neuroscientists question whether it’s time to revisit the ethics of this line of research.
First-ever black hole to be directly imaged has changed ‘dramatically’ in just 4 years, new study finds
The polarization pattern around M87* — the first black hole to be directly imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope — has changed direction, and scientists aren’t sure why.
New report warns that China could overtake the US as top nation in space — and it could happen ‘in 5-10 years,’ expert claims
A new report from the Commercial Space Federation warns that China could soon overtake the U.S. in the “new space race.” The country’s rapid progression starkly contrasts the limitations imposed on NASA by record-breaking budget cuts.
Skywatching alert! See 2 bright comets on the same night as a meteor shower this October
Comet C/2025 R2 (SWAN) can now be seen with binoculars close to Mars in the western sky after sunset.
Saturn will be at its biggest and brightest on Sept. 21 — here’s how to see it
In a once-a-year event, Saturn is about to reach opposition, with the ringed planet appearing its best and brightest as it approaches its closest point to Earth.
Vast source of rare Earth metal niobium was dragged to the surface when a supercontinent tore apart
Potentially the largest known source of niobium discovered in central Australia formed 830 million years ago, and we can thank the breakup of the ancient supercontinent Rodinia.
How to see the moon, Venus and the bright star Regulus in an ultraclose conjunction tomorrow
Watch the crescent moon, Venus and the bright star Regulus align in a rare predawn close conjunction tomorrow.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Diyarbakır, Turkey
Chef Yusuf Altınkaya carves the city’s historical sites into watermelons
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Sydney, Australia
A surfer rides a wave as the sun rises over Bondi Beach
Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images
Istanbul, Turkey
A woman takes part in a photoshoot on a balcony above the Bosphorus
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 19th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46315.27 | +172.85 |
| +0.37% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6664.36 | +32.40 |
| +0.49% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22631.48 | +160.76 |
| +0.72% | ||
| TSX | 29768.36 | +314.83 |
| +1.07% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 45045.81 | -257.62 |
| -0.57% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26545.10 | +0.25 |
| — | ||
| SENSEX | 82626.23 | -387.73 |
| -0.47% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9216.67 | -11.44 |
| -0.12% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.200 | 3.185 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.651 | 3.624 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1274 | 4.1044 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7438 | 4.7242 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7254 | 0.7248 |
| US $ |
1.3785 | 1.3796 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6191 | 0.6176 |
| US $ |
1.1746 | 0.8513 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3643.70 | 3681.00 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 63.57 | 63.57 |
Market Commentary:
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.1%, or 314.83 to 29,768.36 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Aug. 6.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 138 of 210 shares rose, while 71 fell.
Barrick Mining Corp. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 9.7%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 15 times. The next day, it advanced eight times for an average 0.7% and declined seven times for an average 1.4%
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* So far this week, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 33.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 18.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.71t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.67% compared with 6.20% in the previous session and the average of 9.20% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 175.3679| 3.9| 39/8
Financials | 82.5691| 0.9| 20/4
Information Technology | 31.3281| 1.0| 6/4
Industrials | 16.3754| 0.5| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 15.1402| 1.5| 8/1
Consumer Discretionary | 6.8125| 0.7| 4/5
Utilities | 4.6584| 0.5| 8/6
Communication Services | 1.9929| 0.3| 3/2
Real Estate | 1.6970| 0.3| 17/2
Health Care | -0.1148| -0.2| 2/1
Energy | -20.9824| -0.4| 11/29
Barrick Mining | 48.4900| 9.7| 152.2| 104.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 32.1200| 4.3| 229.1| 97.5
Franco-Nevada | 21.1400| 5.6| 380.5| 74.6
Imperial Oil | -3.4010| -2.4| 182.7| 42.9
Cenovus | -5.8930| -2.7| 118.6| 7.4
Suncor | -14.0900| -2.8| 30.3| 11.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange surged to another record close Friday, its 16th in the last 21 sessions, with the Bank of Canada now seen likely to cut its key benchmark interest rate again in October to, as National Bank says, “give the faltering economy some breathing room”, even as Rosenberg Research is still wary about any “potential red flag”.
Even with commodity prices mixed, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index jumped 314.83 points, or 1.05%, to 29,768.36. When the index recorded its first record close of September it was at 28,615.62.
Most sectors were higher, with Base Metals the biggest gainer, up 1%.
Energy was the biggest loser, down 2.2%.
Reflecting this in commodities, gold had moved higher late afternoon on Friday, following two losing sessions from record highs, even as the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $40.10 to US$3,718.40 per ounce, staying under Tuesday’s record high of US$3,725.10.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower, falling for a third day on rising supply while slowing growth cuts into demand.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.89 to settle at US$62.68 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.78 to US$66.66.
According to National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor an economic slowdown has convinced the Bank of Canada that inflation risks are now much lower than a few months ago, especially since the government has significantly reduced retaliatory tariffs.
National Bank noted the BoC, therefore, resumed lowering interest rates in September, and may do so again in October to “give the faltering economy some breathing room”.
Subsequently, National Bank added, the BoC will have to adapt its actions to developments in the trade situation, but also to the federal budget in November, which could also stimulate the Canadian economy.
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research Technical Analysis Consultant Walter Murphy noted the TSX is on pace to make it five weeks straight of posting both a higher weekly high and a higher weekly low.
Perhaps more importantly, Murphy also noted, there has only been one week (the week ending August 1) since the April low that the index suffered a lower weekly low.
“So,” he said, “if the index records a lower weekly low in the weeks immediately ahead, that could be a potential red flag.”
With that performance in mind, Murphy noted the TSX’s weekly momentum indicator, Coppock Curve, actually peaked in late July and has been flat lining ever since.
As a result, he said, the indicator is on pace to be in a confirmed downtrend in the first part of October.
“The resulting bearish bias would likely continue through the fourth quarter.
This implies that a coming weekly lower low in the TSX could develop while the Coppock indicator is in the early stages of a multi-month downtrend,” Murphy added.
Meanwhile, Murphy noted, the TSX is challenging Fibonacci resistance at 29,378-30,198.
A “meaningful” breakout through this range (i.e., above 30,832) would bring 33,800 into view, he said.
With those pending momentum pressures in mind, Murphy said a Fibonacci 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the post-April uptrend would not be a surprise. Based on the gains to date, such a retracement allows for a challenge of 26,673-24,976.
Murphy noted the TSX/S&P 500 relative strength line is challenging its post-2023 downtrend line.
He also noted the associated weekly Coppock Curve is on the oversold side of the neutral zero line but appears to have the time and potential to rally decisively into the positive side of neutral.
In turn, Murphy said, this could help the TSX’s relative strength line break out through trendline resistance as well as chart resistance at 4.66 (compared to the current 4.44).
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street closed out the highly anticipated Federal Reserve week with stocks notching fresh all- time highs as prospects for more rate cuts bolstered the outlook for corporate earnings.
While calls for a temporary breather have emerged after an almost $15 trillion rally in the S&P 500 from its April lows, bullish sentiment has prevailed.
That was after Fed officials resumed easing policy at a time when the economy is still growing, sending a constructive signal for risk taking.
“A Fed easing cycle in a non-recessionary environment has historically helped support stocks, and we see further gains underpinned by AI, earnings, and consumption,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 topped 6,660 Friday, with tech leading the charge.
A gauge of smaller firms dropped from a record.
Trading volume spiked into the close amid a $5 trillion triple-witching options expiry.
About 27.7 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges — the third-busiest day since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 2008.
Treasuries continued in consolidation mode, and were slightly cheaper across the curve.
That was after Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week signaled officials will take the next rate decisions “meeting by meeting.”
Nonetheless, swaps still show bets on nearly two more rate cuts in 2025. The dollar rose.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran told CNBC his decision to dissent from fellow policymakers’ rate move this week was driven by his view that tariffs have had no material impact on inflation.
Separately, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he supported the decision to lower rates and penciled in two additional cuts this year.
“The Fed’s rate cut has set a bullish tempo for equity markets,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, who expects brief consolidation.
“These recent new high milestones will likely serve as a ‘pit-stop’ for this bull market before resuming higher.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that while September has historically delivered pullbacks, this year’s market has defied that pattern.
“Still, with the S&P 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings and volatility suppressed, a period of consolidation or choppiness would be a normal and healthy development.”
At JPMorgan Asset Management, David Lebovitz says the big question is whether investors should be nervous with equity indices at or near all-time highs, spreads near all-time lows, and valuations rich across the board.
“Elevated equity valuations reflect still-solid fundamentals,” he said, “leaving us comfortable with our modest overweight to equities, while the current level of spreads keeps us neutral on high yield given limited room for price appreciation.”
US stocks are trading at record levels with earnings season right around the corner, and improving expectations for Corporate America’s profit growth indicate that the rally can keep going.
Among the companies in the S&P 500 that provided guidance for their third-quarter results, more than 22% were expecting to beat analysts’ expectations — the highest reading in a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
In addition, the share of firms issuing worse-than-expected profit forecasts was the lowest in four quarters as well.
Speaking of earnings, the Securities and Exchange Commission will move forward with plans to overhaul investor disclosure rules for publicly-traded companies, agency Chairman Paul Atkins said Friday.
The announcement comes the same week that President Donald Trump issued a social media post suggesting the SEC should move to semi-annual, rather than quarterly reporting.
Meantime, Bank of America Corp. strategists said the run in US big tech stocks over the past two years has further to go and investors should position for more gains.
A BofA team led by Michael Hartnett studied 10 equity bubbles since the start of the previous century, finding that these periods of extreme overvaluation produced average trough- to-peak gains of 244%.
That suggests that, after rising 223% from their March 2023 low, the Magnificent Seven cohort has “more to go.”
Both global and US equity funds saw their biggest week of inflows since December, BofA strategists said in a note that cites EPFR Global data.
Investors allocated about $68.4 billion to global equity funds for the week ended Sept. 17, while $57.7 billion went into US stock funds.
Nevertheless, this was the seventh-straight week in which bears outnumbered bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors survey.
Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s iPhone 17 Pro, Pro Max and iPhone Air went on sale Friday. The new phones, which bring a fresh look in addition to battery life and camera improvements, attracted long lines at Apple stores from Hong Kong to London to New York to Los Angeles.
** Multiple shoppers interviewed by Bloomberg News indicated they were upgrading belatedly from Apple’s four-year-old iPhone 13 series.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is moving to break into the wholesale power-trading business to better manage the massive electricity needs of its data centers.
* Google will meet the European Union’s deadline to propose changes to its advertising technology business after a near-€3 billion ($3.5 billion) fine — but won’t include the full breakup the EU and industry rivals have previously pushed for.
* The US and China are closer to final agreement on a sale of TikTok’s US operations to American investors, President Donald Trump said after a call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that focused in part on a deal to spare the popular app from a ban.
* Neuralink Corp., Elon Musk’s brain implant company, plans to launch a clinical trial in the US in October aiming to use its device to translate thoughts into text, potentially opening up new possibilities for speech-impaired people to communicate.
* Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. are poised to win aircraft orders from Turkey as soon as next week for as many as 250 commercial planes and additional F-16 fighter jets, with possible resolution over a long-running F-35 dispute.
** Boeing said it would not consider new contract terms approved by a majority of striking St. Louis-area factory workers on Friday.
* FedEx Corp. reinstated its profit and sales forecast, saying revenue will grow by 4% to 6% in the current fiscal year, topping Wall Street estimates.
* United Parcel Service Inc. was downgraded to market perform at BMO Capital Markets, which sees “persisting macro challenges” for the package-shipping company.
* Lennar Corp.’s forecast for quarterly home orders missed analysts’ estimates as affordability concerns and the wavering job market keep a lid on buyer demand.
* Intel Corp. was cut to sell at Citigroup Inc., which pointed to the beleaguered chipmaker’s rich valuation. Shares rallied 23% on Thursday after Nvidia Corp. agreed to invest $5 billion in the company.
* A panel of new vaccine advisers picked by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voted Friday to end the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s universal recommendation that people of all ages get Covid shots, moving the decision from individuals to one made in coordination with medical professionals instead.
* Porsche AG and its parent Volkswagen AG cut their outlook for the year, citing the sports-car maker taking a €1.8 billion ($2.2 billion) hit to operating profit linked to pushing back the introduction of new electric vehicles.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“USstocks and bonds are split on the economic outlook, with equities looking too complacent about the probabilities of a recession.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1748
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3472
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $115,180.47
* Ether fell 3.6% to $4,442.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.72%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.74%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $62.68 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3,684.36 an ounce
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee and Lu Wang.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shab
” Every runner understands this. Front runners always work the hardest, and risk the most.” — Philip Hampson Knight “Phil”
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828