Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday.
September 15, 1776: British troops capture Lower Manhattan after landing at what is now Kips Bay on the East River.
September 15, 1940:Battle of Britain.
September 15, 1971: Greenpeace founded.
The first Costco Warehouse opens in 1983 on Fourth Avenue South in Seattle. The first store is a warehouse with a hot dog stand in front. The warehouse concept is pioneered by Price Club in San Diego in 1976; Costco and Price Club merge in 1993. At first, only small businesses can buy at Costco from about 4,000 items at 8 to 9% over wholesale prices. Later, Costco expands to include retail customers. The company’s headquarters is in Issaquah. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)
September 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection – the largest in U.S. history. Go to article.
Francois de la Rochefoucauld, writer, b.1613.
James Fenimore Cooper, author, b. 1789.
Agatha Christie, author, b. 1890.
The wildcard of the NYC mayoral race
He wears a red beret everywhere and once had 17 cats. Meet New York mayoral candidate Curtis Silwa.
Anime movie breaks 26-year box office record
“Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle” set a record for the biggest opening weekend domestic gross for an anime movie, hauling in an estimated $70 million.
Rookie hits longest MLB home run in more than two years
Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz hit it out of the park with a 493-foot grand slam homer, the longest in Major League Baseball for more than two years.
Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford makes history with victory over Canelo Alvarez
Terence Crawford became the first male boxer to capture three unified division titles when he defeated Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision on Saturday.
Having difficult talks with your son should happen sooner than you might think, expert says
Your boys are listening. Christopher Pepper, coauthor of “Talk to Your Boys,” explains how parents can approach challenging topics with their sons.
10.61: That’s how many seconds it took American sprinter Melissa Jefferson-Wooden to finish the women’s 100 meters at Saturday’s World Athletics Championships. It is the fourth fastest time in history.
| Astronomers accidentally use rare ‘double zoom’ technique to view black hole’s corona in unprecedented detail |
For the first time, astronomers have directly measured a solar-system-size corona around a distant supermassive black hole, thanks to a rare cosmic alignment. Read More.
| New ‘quasi-moon’ discovered in Earth orbit may have been hiding there for decades |
A near-Earth asteroid lurked undetected for decades until a telescope in Hawaii spotted it earlier this year. It may be Earth’s newest quasi-moon. Read More.
| ‘Almost like science fiction’: European ant is the first known animal to clone members of another species |
A species of ant found scurrying across southern Europe is the first animal found that clones males of another species. Read More.
| Scientists develop ‘full-spectrum’ 6G chip that could transfer data at 100 gigabits per second — 10,000 times faster than 5G |
Researchers have developed a 6G chip that uses a dual electro-photonic approach to send signals across nine radio-frequency bands. Read More.
| 350-year-old mummified head from Bolivia isn’t what it seems |
A mummified skull from Bolivia was long thought to be of an Inca man, but a new study finds it had a different history. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Dorset, UK
Almost Synchro are a Bristol-based open water synchronised swimming team united by a passion for outdoor swimming and performing together
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images
Pennsylvania, US
The Lantern Lights festival at Pocono Raceway
Photograph: Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu/Getty Images
West Sussex, UK
A flock of sheep take to the track to honour the former racing driver and farmer Jim Clark during a parade during the second day of the Goodwood Revival at Goodwood Motor Circuit. The three-day event, which is staged entirely in period theme, features vintage campervans, a best dressed contest judged by Dita Von Teese, a VE Day 80th anniversary street party and races run entirely on sustainable fuel
Photograph: Kieran Cleeves Media Assignments/PA
Market Closes for September 15th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
45883.45 | +49.23 |
| +0.11% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6615.28 | +30.99 |
| +0.47% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22348.75 | +207.65 |
| +0.94% | ||
| TSX | 29431.02 | +147.20 |
| +0.50% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 44768.12 | +395.62 |
| +0.89% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26446.56 | +58.40 |
| +0.22% | ||
| SENSEX | 81785.74 | -118.96 |
| -0.15% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9277.03 | -6.26 |
| -0.07% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.167 | 3.188 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.599 | 3.618 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0375 | 4.0643 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.6602 | 4.6805 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7257 | 0.7223 |
| US $ |
1.3779 | 1.3844 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6170 | 0.6207 |
| US $ |
1.1763 | 0.8501 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3651.10 | 3629.55 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 63.30 | 62.69 |
MARKET COMMENTARY:
On this day in 1997, the web domain google.com was registered. The Stanford University coders behind the search engine, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, had initially called their project Backrub.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 29,431.02 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.6%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 14.8%.
Today, 116 of 210 shares rose, while 89 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.6%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.68t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.86% compared with 9.50% in the previous session and the average of 9.73% over the past month
Index Points
Energy | 46.6576| 1.0| 22/17
Financials | 42.7692| 0.5| 16/8
Information Technology | 40.1026| 1.3| 6/3
Materials | 17.5601| 0.4| 28/18
Industrials | 15.1428| 0.4| 19/10
Consumer Discretionary | 6.9634| 0.7| 6/2
Utilities | 0.0058| 0.0| 7/7
Health Care | -0.1898| -0.3| 2/1
Real Estate | -1.5292| -0.3| 8/10
Communication Services | -6.8410| -1.1| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -13.4496| -1.3| 1/9
Shopify | 44.1600| 2.6| -1.2| 33.1
Cameco | 32.6900| 9.9| 33.8| 60.8
Brookfield Corp | 17.7600| 1.9| -31.4| 15.7
Enbridge | -6.1020| -0.6| -13.7| 10.8
Constellation Software | -12.5500| -2.1| 27.4| -3.2
(MT Newswires)
A late rally extended gains on the Toronto Stock Exchange and with that brought about a fresh record close Monday as more market watchers believe not only will the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, but will follow that up with another in October, even as National Bank cited tomorrow inflation report as “a source of uncertainty”.
The TSX added the best part of 60 points over the last 30 minutes of trade to finish up 147.20 points or 0.5% at 29,431.02, with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals up near 1.5%.
This was the 14th record in the last 17 sessions for the index.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high midafternoon on Monday, rising above US$2,700 as traders await an expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate cut later this week.
Gold for December delivery was up US$33.60 to US$3,720.00 per ounce, edging lower from Friday’s record close.
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) was up 1% while Brent Crude (ICE) was up 0.75%.
The Wall Street Journal noted Nymex natural gas settled up 3.5% at US$3.043/mmBtu as the front month continues to waver around the $3 level.
After holding steady for the last three meetings, the Bank of Canada is set to lower the overnight target by 25 bps to 2.5% on Wednesday.
National Bank in a preview noted OIS markets judge a cut to be likely with about 90% implied easing odds.
National said an inflation report just over 24 hours before the decision is a source of uncertainty, but it doesn’t expect it to derail a cut.
Policymakers, National Bank noted, can cite an accumulation of weak data, most prominently jobs data but also GDP, in justifying a cut.
It said there may be an acknowledgement that resilience looks to be fading.
But at the same time, National added, the BoC is likely to reiterate that there are still some ongoing pressures on underlying inflation which is “assessed to be running around 2.5%”.
Assuming the BoC cuts, a follow-on move in October should be viewed as more likely than not, according to National Bank.
As far as guidance is concerned, National noted, the rate statement may contain a copy-paste from July by reiterating that “there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”.
However, it said, the BoC will seek to retain optionality by stating that they’ll be weighing upside inflation pressures from tariffs/the reconfiguration of trade against downside inflation pressures from a weaker economy.
National Bank currently expects the BoC to cut again in October.
National noted the BoC won’t publish a new MPR, so we’ll have to wait until October for new projections.
At this point, National sees growth marginally weaker than the BoC expected in July, while headline inflation is tracking a bit firmer.
Despite CORRA setting near 5 bps above target for the last two weeks, National Bank doesn’t expect an additional cut in the deposit rate.
It noted the last 5 bp deposit rate cut came after months of CORRA pressure.
“The lack of overnight repo operations recently suggests there’s little concern, at least for now.
As for balance sheet policy, we are looking for an announcement that T-bill purchases will start soon, in line with earlier guidance.”
Ahead of Tuesday’s inflation report — which is not seen derailing Wednesday’s rate cut — the Scotiabank duo of Rene Lalonde, Director, Modelling and Forecasting and Farah Omran, Senior Economist, noted the post-pandemic surge in inflation raised some questions as to which measure of core inflation was the best indicator of future total inflation, the BoC’s official target.
At that time Scotia found that CPI excluding food, energy and the effect of indirect taxes (CPIXFET) outperformed other measures while having the added benefit of being more intuitive, and easier to communicate to markets and households.
Now, with inflation largely back within the BoC range, a Scotia team has repeated this exercise, comparing CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPIXFET.
Once again, CPIXFET proves to be the most accurate predictor of headline inflation, Lalonde and Omran said.
Price: 29431.02, Change: +147.20, Percent Change: +0.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street notched fresh highs amid bets that a Federal Reserve rate cut Wednesday is a sure thing, with traders waiting to see whether officials will validate expectations for a series of reductions into next year.
A $14 trillion record-breaking run in US equities is heading for an inflection point, with the first rate cut since Donald Trump became president likely to seize the spotlight in a week that will determine policy settings for half of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies.
Bets that Fed easing will keep powering Corporate America put the S&P 500 above 6,600.
The Nasdaq 100 saw its longest advance since 2023.
A jump in Tesla Inc. erased its 2025 drop as Elon Musk’s $1 billion purchase.
Alphabet Inc. hit $3 trillion.
Also aiding sentiment was a framework deal on keeping TikTok running in the US, with Trump saying he’d talk to China’s Xi Jinping Friday.
Treasuries rose, with two-year yields hovering near the lowest since last September.
The dollar slid.
Signs of labor-market weakening and no major inflation surprises have sealed the deal for what money markets project will be a quarter-point Fed cut in September.
The big question, though, will be the pace of easing after that, with prices stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target.
“Now the discussion will turn to how aggressively the Fed will act,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“The Fed may remind everyone that it may be focused on jobs now, but it hasn’t forgotten about the other half of its mandate.”
US policymakers on Wednesday will also release their quarterly update of economic and rate forecasts — known as the dot plot — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his regular post-decision press conference.
In June, Fed officials were narrowly in favor of two quarter-point cuts in 2025.
What traders will really hang on to is the tone of Powell’s press conference and the “dot plot” projections, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“I’ll be watching how the market reacts to any mention of inflation being ‘well anchored’ or the labor market ‘cooling more than expected,” he said.
“That sort of language would be music to the ears of dollar bears.
On the flip side, a cautious Fed that hints at a ‘wait and see’ approach might stall the rally, at least temporarily.”
Before that, Razaqzada noted that there’s also a bit of data to keep things lively before and after the decision.
Tuesday’s retail sales could either reinforce the soft-landing narrative or raise fresh concerns about consumer demand, he said.
In a nod to data that suggests US-based firms are growing reluctant to hire, the Fed will cut by 25 basis points this week, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.
But to the central bank’s hawks, monetary policy doesn’t present as being tight, he noted.
“And so Jay Powell will offer balance. He’ll highlight again the downside risk to employment growth, but refrain from signaling a (long) string of cuts after September,” Wizman said.
Lon Erickson at Thornburg Investment Management says he doesn’t think we’re ready for another 50 basis-point cut this year like the Fed did when the cutting process first began.
“Considering what we’ve seen with inflation, which came in a bit higher than expected, they’ll continue to be cautious,” he said.
“The wild card remains inflation.
The key question is how that plays out over the rest of the year and whether we end up in the dreaded stagflation-type environment, which would put the Fed in a tough spot.”
Erickson says he’s leaning more towards expecting a rate cut at each of the remaining meetings this year amid a softening labor market.
“Near-term risk is centered on the tension between lagging, weak labor data and the Fed’s response that may not meet the markets’ ‘need for speed,’” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said.
Still, he recommended buying any dips, and his most bullish scenario sees the S&P 500 climbing to 7,200 points by mid-2026.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said that while the stock market has disregarded weak indicators to post multiple record highs, this trend could reverse once the Fed makes its first cut of 2025.
“Once the easing resumes, equities could turn more cautious for a bit, and price in some more downside risk, in effect repricing the current, potentially complacent, stance,” a team led by Mislav Matejka wrote.
Bullish traders may have history on their side: The S&P 500 has been 15% higher, on average, a year after cuts resumed following a pause of six months or more, data from Ned Davis Research going back to the 1970s show.
That compares to a 12% gain in the same period after the first cut of an ordinary cycle.
“With the weakening labor market and inflation seemingly under control, we expect a rate cut starting this week and totaling 100 basis points over the next four meetings through January 2026,” said Brian Buetel at UBS Wealth Management.
“The stock market’s recent gains are being driven by strong earnings momentum and declining rates.”
Buetel says he expects modest upside between now and the end of the year, and the bull market continuing to gain steam into 2026, as investors have plenty of earnings momentum runway to work with.
Measures of projected volatility look dormant, and analysts’ profit views for the first half of 2026 are climbing back toward where they stood at the beginning of the year.
Since bottoming in July 2026 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 have climbed in each of the past nine weeks.
At $295 per share, they’re in line with where they stood in late April, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaking of earnings, President Trump again called for an end to quarterly earnings reports, tapping into a long-running fault line in American capitalism over how much information should be disclosed by public companies.
Trump is pushing for a six-month reporting schedule as opposed to the current every three-months format.
Ending quarterly results in favor of a six-month reporting schedule would “save money and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies,” Trump said.
“The lack of transparency will make it harder for investors, but it will also free up company managements to focus on their businesses on a longer-term basis,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
Lost in the shuffle a bit is Friday’s $5 trillion triple- witching expiration, with market watchers downplaying its impact.
Looking back over 35 years reveals that intraday swings in the S&P 500 on expiry weeks tend to be marginally higher than the following week, which challenges the oft touted “free to move” theory.
Corporate Highlights:
* China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations.
* Google considered selling off parts of its ad tech business to resolve antitrust concerns in Europe and the US, a lawyer for the company said Monday, but a Justice Department proposal to force the sale of its advertising exchange goes much further.
* Walt Disney Co. is bringing all of its marquee comics to a new digital platform and app in partnership with Webtoon Entertainment Inc.
* Live Nation Inc.’s Ticketmaster is being probed by the US Federal Trade Commission over whether it’s done enough to keep bots from illegally reselling tickets on its platform.
* CoreWeave Inc. said its shareholder Nvidia has agreed to buy cloud services valued at $6.3 billion, part of that company’s push to speed up the adoption of artificial intelligence across the economy.
* Alaska Air Group Inc.’s adjusted third-quarter profit will be at the low end of the carrier’s previous estimate of $1 to $1.40 a share, driven down by a July technology outage and rising fuel prices.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. is introducing a program to encourage more retail investors to support the company in proxy votes with an automatic system that threatens to limit the influence of activists.
* Snap Inc. is rolling out an updated version of its operating system for augmented-reality glasses, a move that signals it’s getting closer to launching its first consumer smart glasses next year.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. is launching a closed-end fund to give US retail investors exposure to private companies.
* Kering SA, whose luxury brands include Gucci, Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, said Monday it was the victim of a data breach that was discovered in June, the latest in a string of attacks on the consumer goods sector.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Equity traders, fixated on this week’s anticipated Fed rate cut, are unlikely to be unsettled unless Tuesday’s retail sales report reveals a sharp decline.
Still, the outlook bears watching, as consumer strength has long served as a crucial pillar for both the economy and financial markets.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1765
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3609
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.39 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $115,335.51
* Ether fell 2.7% to $4,493.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $63.32 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,680.75 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
You must expect great things of yourself before you can do them. –Michael Jordan, b. 1963.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com