September 4th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

September 4, 1781: City of Los Angeles founded.
September 4, 1882: Thomas Edison begins commercial operations at his Pearl St. plant.
September 4, 1888: George Eastman is granted a patent for roll film and the Kodak camera, revolutionizing photography by making it affordable and portable.   
He registered his enterprise Kodak.  Go to article.
September 4, 2012: shares of Facebook (now Meta Platforms) hit a record-low close of $17.73, valuing the fledgling social-media company at less than $38 billion. It’s worth $1.9 trillion today.

The full moon on Sept. 7, 2025 will be a “blood moon” total lunar eclipse. Here’s who will see the longest total lunar eclipse since 2022. Read More.

A new study of the trace amounts of lead in Venice’s famous winged lion statue suggests that its metal originated in China — and Marco Polo’s family may have brought it over. Read More.

Near-infrared images from the James Webb Space Telescope revealed five early universe galaxies merging within a large halo. Read More.

Iberian orcas have damaged several boats off the coast of Spain in recent weeks, leaving authorities scrambling to rescue stranded crews. Read More.

Scientists have trained the ANYmal quadruped robot to play badminton, and it’s good enough to complete in a 10-shot rally with a human opponent. Read More.

Cyclist Chris Froome suffers life-threatening injury in crash
The four-time Tour de France winner is on the mend, but his wife said “it’s going to be a long recovery process.”

Sen. Cory Booker is engaged
The Democrat from New Jersey popped the question to his girlfriend while vacationing in Hawaii.
New ‘Dancing with the Stars’ contestants announced
Comedian Andy Richter, former child star Corey Feldman and actress Danielle Fishel will join other celebs in the battle of the ballroom.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dharamshala, India
Clouds envelop the Himalayan township of McLeodganj
Photograph: Ashwini Bhatia/AP

Hong Kong, China
Preparations for the city’s inaugural international hot-air balloon festival
Photograph: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images

Chennai, India
Students perform a traditional dance during Onam, the annual harvest festival
Photograph: R Satish Babu/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 4^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining. -John Fitzgerald Kennedy, 1917-1963.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the seventh day, climbing 0.6%, or 164.52 to 28,915.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since Aug. 26. Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.2%.
Today, 141 of 210 shares rose, while 69 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2024
* This quarter, the index rose 7.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.2%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 30.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 18 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.61t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.85% compared with 9.78% in the previous session and the average of 9.79% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 79.3668| 2.7| 8/2
Financials | 67.4776| 0.7| 17/7
Industrials | 19.4496| 0.6| 22/7
Consumer Discretionary | 8.6187| 0.9| 8/1
Real Estate | 5.4373| 1.1| 16/3
Utilities | 3.3984| 0.3| 11/3
Communication Services | 0.9831| 0.2| 2/3
Consumer Staples | 0.7242| 0.1| 6/4
Health Care | 0.2273| 0.3| 2/1
Energy | -6.9239| -0.2| 28/12
Materials | -14.2138| -0.3| 21/26
Shopify | 62.1500| 3.8| -19.9| 31.2
Brookfield Corp | 19.0700| 2.1| -22.5| 11.4
Bank of Montreal | 13.3800| 1.6| -10.8| 24.1
First Quantum | |Minerals | -3.6410| -3.1| 8.9| 31.1
Teck Resources | -4.0770| -2.8| 162.6| -22.3
TC Energy | -5.8930| -1.1| 42.3| 6.1
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its ninth record close in the last 10 sessions, boosted by commentary on the Canadian economy from the likes of CIBC, which said that “overall, it looks like net trade will be a positive for GDP in the third quarter”, though it did add growth will be “fairly tepid” over the second half of 2025 due to tariffs uncertainty.
Even with commodity prices lower, the resources heavy TSX was up 164.53 points or 0.55% at 28,915.89, with most sectors higher.
Among sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 3.1% and Info Tech up 2.1%.
Base Metals were down 1%, and Health Care modestly lower.
Of commodities, the front month Comex gold for September delivery settled down US$27.40 per troy ounce, or 0.76%, at US$3,565.80.
Also, Bloomberg noted, oil declined on concerns that OPEC+ will once again bolster supply at a meeting on Sunday, compounding fears of higher volumes later in the year.
It noted West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.8% to settle near US$64.50 a barrel, building on an earlier decline after softer than expected US jobs data added to concerns demand may wane.
Prices slumped Wednesday following a report that OPEC and its allies would consider fresh increases at a weekend policy meeting.
On the economy, Statistics Canada early Thursday said this nation’s merchandise trade deficit with the world had narrowed, and trade surplus with the United States widened in July.
Statistics Canada noted the global deficit narrowed to $4.9 billion in July from $6.0 billion in June as merchandise exports rose 0.9%, while imports were down 0.7% month over month.
July’s trade deficit was slightly lower than the $5.2 billion consensus deficit provided by MUFG.
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $6.7 billion in July, from $3.7 billion in June, marking the largest surplus since March 2025, added StatsCan.
Exports to the U.S. increased 5.0% month over month in July, in part because of higher exports of crude oil and passenger cars.
Imports from the U.S. fell 2.2% in July 2025, a fourth decrease in five months.
“Overall,” CIBC said, “it looks like net trade will be a positive for GDP in the third quarter, but that doesn’t mean that the negatives from this year’s tariff shock are behind us.
Exports in the second quarter were likely below the underlying trend, due to earlier tariff front-running, and so the recent improvement is simply returning us to a new, lower, trend level.
While CUSMA exemptions are helping stabilize exports in many areas, sectors exposed to specific tariffs (notably steel and aluminum) continue to suffer.
Moreover, the negative impact of trade uncertainty on business investment, hiring and, by extension, consumer spending, will persist for longer and likely keep overall GDP growth fairly tepid during the second half of the year.”
Elsewhere, TD Economics said the combination of rising exports and falling imports on the month should allow net trade to bounce back after an “exceptionally weak” showing in the second quarter, providing a positive tailwind to total GDP growth.
It noted there is still “considerable uncertainty” on the trade front for the quarter ahead.
but added: “On the plus side, the Canadian government recently removed counter-tariffs on U.S. imports, which should aid in more positive discussions with the U.S. administration around the state of trade. On the other hand, Canadian export rotation into non-U.S. markets may not be having the same staying-power as exports abruptly shifted back to the U.S. in July.
Looking ahead, we still expect Section 232 and IEEPA tariffs on Canadian exports to remain in place over the coming quarters with the USMCA renegotiations looming next year.”
Meanwhile, Canadian officials said they would begin over the next few days to roll out financial support packages for domestic producers hit hardest by the Trump administration’s sectoral tariffs, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
Among the areas to receive help are steel and aluminum, which face a 50% U.S. tariff, and Canadian-assembled automobiles, which face a 25% tariff, the report said.
“We’re really working on supporting these sectors and there’s more news to come,” Industry Minister Melanie Joly said, adding that measures would emerge in the coming days.
Finance Minister Francois Philippe Champagne was widely reported Thursday as saying that “adjustments” are coming to the public service in Canada as the federal government looks to trim its spending in the fall budget.
Price: 28915.89, Change: +164.53, Percent Change: +0.55
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for Friday’s jobs report got a trio of data that reinforced the view of a cooling labor market, keeping bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts alive while driving stocks and bonds higher.
The latest readings on hiring and unemployment claims came on the eve of data that’s expected to extend the weakest stretch of US job growth since the pandemic.
Treasury two-year yields hovered near the lowest levels in about a year.
Money markets almost fully priced in a Fed cut this month and see at least two by year-end.
The S&P 500 hit a record high.
In late hours, Broadcom Inc.’s upbeat forecast failed to impress some investors.
Employers in the US showed little enthusiasm to take on workers during August, and the unemployment rate probably ticked up to an almost four-year high — adding to evidence of a more subdued labor market.
After lowering rates by a full percentage point last fall, Fed policymakers have held them steady this year out of concern that tariffs could reignite price pressures.
But as risks to the jobs market become more apparent, officials are widely expected to slash borrowing costs in about two weeks from now.
Bearing in mind the Fed’s dual mandate, there’s reason to believe Friday’s jobs report is the “single most important” set of data that we’ll receive, according to Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“Many investors are clearly hoping for rate cuts, but it is important to remember to be careful what we wish for,” he said.
“Data that show a gently decelerating, but not dire labor market would suit that goal.
Plunging data might bias the Fed to further cuts but could also raise concerns that the central bank is too far behind the curve.”
The former extends the “Goldilocks” narrative, Sosnick said, while the latter raises concerns about “stagnation” or “stagflation.”
As traders positioned for the key jobs reading, President Donald Trump’s pick to fill a vacant seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors reiterated his commitment to central bank independence.
Stephen Miran also added that a central bank’s most-important job is preventing depressions and hyperinflation.
In the run-up to the payrolls report, data showed US jobless claims rose to the highest since June.
Private-sector payrolls increased by 54,000, according to ADP Research data, missing estimates.
Hiring plans fell to the weakest level for any August on record, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“Even the most easing-skeptical officials should concede increasing risks of labor market weakness,” said Will Compernolle at FHN Financial.
“If this momentum continues into upcoming months, firms would soon be shedding workers faster than hiring them to the point of negative job growth.”
Nonfarm payrolls probably grew 75,000 in August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which would mark a fourth straight month of job growth below 100,000.
The unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.3% — the highest level since 2021.
“The Federal Reserve’s free pass on the labor market has ended,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“You can expect the Fed to tilt its balance of risks to cut rates in September.”
Tomorrow’s jobs report will be the deciding factor, but so far this week, the data is confirming a slowdown in the labor market, according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“In the short term, markets may embrace that data because it should increase the odds of Fed rate cuts,” he said.
“But if the numbers deteriorate too much, it could raise concerns about the health of the economy.”
The silver-lining is the weaker the jobs data the more cover there is for stimulative interest rate cuts that are on the horizon, according to Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management.
“The boost in the latter half of this year should come from easier monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policies to avoid further economic deterioration,” he said.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that investor focus has dramatically shifted to payrolls after the weak number and large revisions last month.
According to the tally, 36% of respondents think the reaction to Friday’s data will be “risk-off,” 35% said “mixed/negligible” and 29% “risk-on.”
“The most relevant question for the August payrolls report is: did June see the bottoming for job creation or is there still further downside yet to be realized?” said Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
He also noted this won’t be the deciding factor behind whether the Fed cuts by 25 basis points in September, but it will influence the degree to which the Fed’s economic projections lay the groundwork for cuts over the balance of 2025.
“In the event that Friday’s data shows an improvement from the recent lull in hiring, then the Fed would have grounds for a patient approach to rate cuts over the balance of the year,” he said.
The Fed has kept rates unchanged in 2025, largely due to concerns tariffs could stoke inflation.
But lackluster employment figures have prompted greater concern, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled a cut could be warranted amid a “shifting balance of risks.”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech last week that the data support the view that “labor demand may be on the edge of a sharp decline,” a trend he argued monetary policy should address.
Waller has been one of the most vocal Fed governors favoring interest-rate cuts to guard against an outright deterioration in the job market.
Earlier Wednesday, Waller suggested the possibility of multiple reductions in borrowing costs by the end of the year.
Separate data Thursday showed activity at US service providers expanded in August at the fastest pace in six months on the sharpest acceleration in orders in nearly a year.
The solid advance in those demand indicators suggests the largest part of the economy is gaining some traction after five straight months of sluggishness.
Twelve services industries expanded last month, led by information, wholesale trade and arts and entertainment.
Activity contracted in four industries.
“Overall, the data showed a solid rebound in business activity among service providers despite there being some pockets of weakness within the details of the report,” said Hartman at BMO.
“From here, the path has been cleared to set up for tomorrow’s payrolls report.”
‘Over Time’
Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said his forecast is that it will “become appropriate” to cut interest rates “over time,” without clarifying the timing or pace of such moves.
Meantime, the US Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook committed mortgage fraud — ratcheting up pressure in Trump’s bid to oust her from the central bank.
Federal prosecutors have issued subpoenas seeking information related to allegations that Cook misrepresented information on mortgage applications, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing the ongoing probe. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Broadcom Inc., a chip supplier to companies like Alphabet Inc. and Apple Inc., delivered a revenue forecast for the current period that failed to impress some investors, a sign they were anticipating a bigger payoff from the AI boom.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. slashed its outlook, exacerbating investor concerns that the yoga wear retailer is struggling to pull out of a sales slump after years of rapid growth.
* Boeing Co. plans to start hiring permanent replacements for some of the 3,200 hourly workers on strike at its St. Louis defense hub, escalating tensions with no break in sight for the one-month-old labor impasse.
* CVS Caremark is facing multiple federal lawsuits by patients challenging its decision to remove weight-loss drug Zepbound from its list of preferred medications after signing a rebate agreement with Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk A/S.
* The Trump administration is taking steps to make it easier for automakers to deploy-self driving cars by removing some requirements designed specifically for human drivers — like windshield wipers.
* Tesla Inc. said it has opened its robotaxi app to the general public, suggesting the company will soon roll out the service beyond a select group of early access users in Austin, Texas.
* General Motors Co. will start the launch of the Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle in December with one shift at its plant in Kansas, less than the two shifts initially planned for the plug- in compact due to uncertain EV demand, the company said.
* Microsoft Corp. is set to avoid a potentially hefty antitrust fine after the European Union got positive feedback on the US software giant’s offer to settle a probe into the allegedly illegal bundling of its Teams video-conferencing app.
* Salesforce Inc. projected lackluster quarterly sales growth, suggesting its artificial intelligence product isn’t yet paying off as quickly as hoped in the face of competition from emerging AI companies.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. Chief Executive Officer Antonio Neri said the company expects to weather a slimming of profit margins as it enters a new era of artificial intelligence-driven demand.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will invest as much as $1 billion in T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and team up with the asset manager to sell private-market products to retail investors.
* American Eagle Outfitters Inc. skyrocketed on higher-than- expected quarterly sales, weeks after the jeans-maker found itself embroiled in a social media firestorm over its controversial Sydney Sweeney ad campaign.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. signed a three-year agreement to distribute Legendary Entertainment’s upcoming films in cinemas, the latest in a flurry of deals for the studio since new management took over weeks ago.
* OpenAI plans to launch a new AI-powered jobs platform next year to help match employers with candidates who have artificial intelligence skills in a bid to accelerate the technology’s deployment across businesses and government agencies.
* C3 AI Inc. named Stephen Ehikian as its new chief executive officer, replacing founder Tom Siebel, who will remain executive chairman.
** Separately, the company reported that subscription revenue slipped 18% in the fiscal first quarter. Siebel called the financial performance “completely unacceptable.”
* Figma Inc., a design software company, gave an annual revenue outlook that failed to impress investors in its first report as a public company.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1650
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3435
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 148.49 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $109,838.51
* Ether fell 4.2% to $4,277.74
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.72%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.59%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.86%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $63.35 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,550.16 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labour does the body. –Seneca, 4 BCE-65 CE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com