August 29th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!

August 29, 1831: Michael Faraday discovers electromagnetic induction, laying the foundation for electric power generation.
August 29, 1839: Amistad seized.
August 29, 1885: Gottlieb Daimler registers his “Reitwagen” (“riding carriage”) as German patent DRP No. 36423. With its wooden chassis and revolutionary gasoline-powered internal-combustion engine, the Reitwagen is the world’s first motorcycle–and the first mechanized vehicle for personal transport.
August 29, 1966: Allen Ginsberg reads his poetry to a crowd in Washington Square Park.
On Aug. 29, 1991, the Supreme Soviet, the parliament of the U.S.S.R., suspended all activities of the Communist Party, bringing an end to the institution. Go to article.

John Locke, philosopher, b.1632.
Ingrid Bergman, actress, b.1915.
Charlie “Bird” Parker, musician, b.1920.
Michael Jackson, entertainer, b. 1958.

Cyclist Chris Froome airlifted to hospital after training crash
The four-time Tour de France winner suffered several broken bones in the incident

Fossils of ‘jaw-droppingly weird’ dinosaur discovered
This armored plant-eater was adorned with spikes, some of which were about 3 feet long.

Changes coming to ‘SNL’
As the NBC sketch show enters its 51st season, several cast members are departing.

Eager to know more about this week’s big marriage proposal?
Travis Kelce’s dad spills more details about how it all went down.

A multicolored mural discovered in Peru is shedding light on pre-Inca coastal artistic traditions. Read More.

In a dazzling new photo, the James Webb Space Telescope zooms in on the Butterfly Nebula — the dying gasps of one of the hottest stars in the sky, which could hold clues to Earth’s origins. Read More.

Darwin Monkey or ‘Wukong’ features over 2 billion artificial neurons and more than 100 billion synapses — similar to the neural structure of a macaque. Read More.

Researchers have unveiled Kostensuchus atrox, a giant crocodile relative that ate dinosaurs in Argentina 70 million years ago during the Cretaceous period. Read More.

The current hurricane classification does not consider storm surge and rainfall risks, which cause almost 80% of hurricane-related deaths. A new scale could help people better prepare for storms.
Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Varpalota, Hungary
Visitors sit in a light installation titled Matriz by the Spanish street artist SpY, in the turbine hall of the decommissioned Inota thermal power plant on the opening night of the annual INOTA audiovisual art festival
Photograph: Tamas Vasvari/EPA

Crans-Montana, Switzerland
John Ellis, the caddie for Wyndham Clark, on the seventh hole at the Crans-Sur-Sierre golf club on day two of the European Masters
Photograph: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

Sicily, Italy
People watch a flow of lava from Mount Etna, which remains active after eruptions resumed on 10 August
Photograph: Giuseppe Distefano/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 29^th,2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
When you want to test the depths of a stream, don’t use both feet. – Chinese Proverb.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.5%, or 129.65 to 28,564.45 in Toronto.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.8%.
BRP Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.4%.
Today, 139 of 211 shares rose, while 67 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.8%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 28.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.57t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.74% compared with 9.78% in the previous session and the average of 9.27% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 91.4659| 2.2| 46/2
Financials | 27.1835| 0.3| 11/13
Consumer Staples | 9.2608| 0.9| 9/1
Energy | 6.6033| 0.1| 21/16
Consumer Discretionary | 6.5333| 0.7| 6/3
Real Estate | 1.6531| 0.3| 18/1
Health Care | 1.1370| 1.7| 3/0
Communication Services | 0.5258| 0.1| 4/1
Industrials | -3.1281| -0.1| 10/18
Utilities | -3.2757| -0.3| 6/7
Information Technology | -8.3091| -0.3| 5/5
TD Bank | 34.3500| 2.8| 91.0| 34.7
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 23.1700| 3.4| 35.5| 76.1
Constellation |Software | 17.7100| 2.9| 2.9| 2.4
Shopify | -6.8190| -0.4| -25.8| 26.8
RBC | -11.7800| -0.6| -32.6| 15.2
Celestica | -19.9800| -8.5| 38.5| 101.6
BRP Inc. | 9.4| 1.7940| 414.4| 18.1
Endeavour Silver| 6.2| 1.0130| 20.5| 62.8
NexGen Energy | 6.0| 2.4320| 70.7| 14.0
Celestica | -8.5| -19.9800| 38.5| 101.6
Laurentian Bank | of Canada | -3.7| -0.3640| 658.9| 5.3
Athabasca Oil | -2.4| -0.5280| 0.1| 12.9
(MT Newswires):
Canadian investors marched into the Labour Day holiday weekend across North America by lifting the Toronto Stock Exchange to its sixth record close in seven sessions, even as National Bank says the Canadian economy “seems in dire need of a trad agreement” and suggests Bank of Canada can provide “a little extra help” while waiting for the federal government’s budget plans.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 129.66 points, or 0.5% at 28,564.45, In beginning its record run over the last seven days, the index closed at 28,055.43 on Aug. 21.
The first record close of the month came on August 5, at 27,570.88, near 1,000 points south of where the TSX stands now.
Ssectors were mixed, with Health Care, up 1.6%, the only one gaining more than 1%, while Info Tech was the biggest loser, down a modest 0.8%.
Among individual stocks, Laurentian Bank (LB.TO) fell 3.7% as it closed out the third-quarter earnings season for Canadian banks.
The bank’s shares were down even as its performance in lowering provision for credit losses drove a Q3 beat, reporting core cash EPS of $0.78 versus National Bank Financial’s forecast of $0.70 and consensus of $0.73.
National Bank said Laurentian’s outperformance this quarter was driven by $9 million of performing provision releases, adding $0.20 to EPS vs.  National’s estimates.
But it added the provision release was at odds with other credit trends such as higher-than-expected loan losses as well as a 28% sequential increase in impaired formations.
While loan growth exceeded expectations due to an increase in CRE balances, the bank expects “muted” growth for the next quarter, along with stable margins, National noted.
National kept an underperform rating on the bank’s shares and lowered its target to $26.00 from $27.00.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Friday as the dollar weakened after a key U.S. inflation measure came in steady last month, meeting market expectations, but failing to dim hopes for coming interest-rate cuts.
Gold for December delivery was seen up $41.60 to US$3.515.90 per ounce, above the July 22 record close of US$3,501.30.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower ahead of the Labor Day weekend that marks the end of the high-demand U.S. driving season and the arrival on Monday of the final 548,000 barrel per day tranche of OPEC+’s 2.2-million bpd of production hikes.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.59 to settle at US$64.01 per barrel, while October Brent crude was las seen down $0.50 to US$68.12.
On the economics front, Statistics Canada early Friday released data showing nominal GDP pulled back 1.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, following a 0.5% increase in the first quarter and nine ticks lower than the consensus estimate calling for a 0.7% contraction in Q2. StatsCan also released an advance estimate for July showing growth of 0.1% in the month.
“Overall,” said National Bank’s Matthieu Arseneau and Kyle Dahms, “this morning’s data does not change our view that the Canadian economy, already in excess supply, has experienced difficulties in the second quarter and will in the third.
The downward revision of monthly GDP for June (preliminary was 0.1% and was revised to -0.1%) and the weak rebound in July lead us to believe that the economic weakness will continue into the third quarter.
Moreover, yesterday’s labor market data points to a widespread deterioration in the labor market … which should limit consumption in Q3, especially as households grapple with an interest payment shock at current rate levels.
This economy seems in dire need of a trade agreement to give businesses greater visibility.
In the meantime, the Bank of Canada can provide a little extra help while waiting for the federal government’s budget plans.”
Also, while looking ahead, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said there remain challenges that should weigh on growth in the near-term.
Doyle noted monthly data showed a third consecutive GDP decline of -0.1% MoM in June, indicating a weak handoff effect.
He said this marks a sharp reduction relative to the preliminary estimate and will weigh on estimates for Q3.
Doyle also noted trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, despite PM Mark Carney’s recent announcement that Canada would drop many of its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.
Additionally, the labour market remains weak, population growth continues to slow, and mortgage rate resets remain a challenge for housing activity, Doyle added.
“Beyond this,” Doyle said, “there are causes for more optimism in 2026.
The potential for an improvement in U.S. activity should have positive implications for Canada’s business cycle, notwithstanding trade policy uncertainty.”
For the BoC ahead, Macquarie continues to project two further rate cuts of 25 bps each, with the most likely timing for these being in October and December.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks down amid a selloff in tech shares that have powered the surge from April’s meltdown.
The slide came despite inflation data that did little to alter bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with short-term bond yields edging lower.
A rout in the S&P 500’s most-influential group drove the index down from a record at the end of a solid August.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%.
The market is bracing for what is known as the weakest month for US shares, as institutional investors rebalance, retail traders slow their buying and volatility picks up.
“It’s month end, and we are entering the most historically challenging month of the year,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“Being cautious would seem prudent. It may not last long, given the repeated success of dip buyers.”
While macro events are generally more determinant for the market’s direction, seasonal factors can exacerbate moves triggered by the likes of economic data or monetary policy.
US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, indicating resilient demand in the face of stubborn inflation.
That was ahead of next week’s all-important jobs report, which will be key in setting the pace of Fed rate cuts by year- end.
“Barring a blowout nonfarm payrolls print next Friday, we view a September 17 rate cut as likely, given the growing chorus of dovish Fedspeak,” said Jennifer Timmerman at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly suggested policymakers will be ready to lower rates soon, adding that inflation stemming from tariffs will likely prove temporary.
Despite Friday’s drop, S&P 500 saw its fourth straight month of gains.
Nvidia Corp. led losses in megacaps.
Dell Technologies Inc. sank amid tighter profit margins on servers.
AI infrastructure shares slid as Marvell Technology Inc.’s outlook raised concern about data-center equipment demand.
Treasuries cemented a monthly gain in anticipation of Fed cuts.
While bonds were mixed Friday, the policy-sensitive two- year yield fell one basis point to 3.62%.
The dollar was little changed at the end of a weak August.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items and is favored by the Fed, rose 0.3% from June.
From the prior year, the gauge picked up to 2.9%, the most since February.
“The good news is, in-line expectations likely keep the status quo intact, which leaves a Fed rate cut in play for September,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“The bad news is, inflation is continuing to inch higher, which isn’t really the environment the Fed likely wants to cut in.”
For now, though, Kenwell notes that an in-line PCE report should lend more confidence to a September rate cut.
Short of a robust job reading, it’s hard to see any data derailing the Fed’s plan to cut rates in September, he said.
The Fed has kept rates unchanged so far in 2025, largely due to concerns that tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures.
But lackluster employment figures released after the July meeting have prompted greater concern, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week a cut could be warranted, citing a “shifting balance of risks.”
“With earnings season now behind us, most will turn their focus back to economic data, one release being the August jobs report that is due next week,” said Adam Phillips at EP Wealth Advisors.
“Any news that brings September’s rate cut into question could be a wake-up call for investors.”
“The Fed opened the door to rate cuts, but the size of that opening is going to depend on whether labor-market weakness continues to look like a bigger risk than rising inflation,”
said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “For now, the odds still favor a September cut.”
With the Fed remaining laser-focused on labor market weakness, as long as next Friday’s data does not change the narrative of a jobs market on the verge of a collapse, the door is wide open for a September rate cut, according to Atakan Bakiskan at Berenberg.
US WEEK AHEAD: Nonfarm Payrolls Won’t Settle Rate-Cut Debate
Fed Governor Christopher Waller this week called for lower rates, saying he would support a quarter-percentage point reduction in September and anticipates additional cuts over the next three to six months.
While he does not currently see the need for an outsized cut, that could change if the jobs report due next week “points to a substantially weakening economy and inflation remains well contained.”
Friday’s data left intact expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, beginning as soon as next month, in response to signs of a softer labor market even as inflation remains above the 2% target.
“While there might be some impact from tariffs, fears about spiraling inflation aren’t coming true yet,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“Strong personal income and spending also suggest consumers remain healthy, even if they’re anxious about the future.”
Inflation is increasing ever so slightly, but right in line with forecasts and the latest PCE data should only increase the probability of a Fed rate cut next month, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
While Friday’s selling in stocks could have been investors trying to get ahead of the seasonal weakness, we’re entering September after the S&P 500 made a series of record highs for the year and at short-term overbought levels — “leaving little margin for error,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“Although September is typically the weakest month of the year on average, we don’t see anything on the horizon to knock this bull market off its path,” Zaccarelli said.
If there is any volatility in September or October, it will likely prove to be “a great buying opportunity as we are setting up to rally into year end, especially if the Fed is cutting rates outside of a recession,” he concluded.
In fact, Gina Bolvin says September isn’t necessarily that bad when strong momentum is in place.
Historically, the month is negative about 44% of the time, yet when trading above the 200-day moving average — as we are now — the average return is still positive by 1%.
“That backdrop supports the ‘buy the dip’ narrative,” said the president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“I still expect seasonal weakness to kick in and would look to be a buyer on dips.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The Trump administration will make it harder for Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. to ship critical equipment to their chipmaking operations in China, dealing a potential blow to the companies’ production in the world’s largest semiconductor market.
* Super Micro Computer Inc. cautioned that weaknesses in its controls related to financial disclosures could, if not fixed, hurt the company’s ability to report results “in a timely and accurate manner.”
* Just three weeks after its last quarterly report, Caterpillar Inc. is warning investors it now expects tariffs to have an even greater impact on its business, costing it as much as $1.8 billion this year.
* Gap Inc. expects its margins will shrink this year; a sign tariffs are slowing recent turnaround momentum.
* Petco Health & Wellness Co Inc. raised its earnings targets for the year as the company’s turnaround starts showing signs of progress.
* Ulta Beauty Inc. raised its full-year outlook after reporting second-quarter results that topped expectations, even as it warned of a potential pullback by consumers.
* UK users of the Mounjaro obesity shot will be spared the full impact of maker Eli Lilly & Co.’s price increase as some pharmacies opt to shield customers — at least for now.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. reported a surge in revenue from China’s AI boom, helping assuage investors nervous about the fallout from a worsening battle with Meituan and JD.com Inc. in internet commerce.
* Huawei Technologies Co. posted a first-half profit, getting back into the black after the emergence of DeepSeek ignited a wave of AI development across China.
* BYD Co. reported a surprise drop in quarterly profit due to fierce price competition in its home market, piling more pressure on the Chinese carmaker already poised to miss its annual sales targets.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Stock and bond markets have a history of moving in tandem in September, based on the past five years.
If the trend re- establishes itself in 2025, the likely direction for both markets is lower, with investors banking on an extended cycle of interest-rate cuts bound for disappointment.”
—Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1698
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3515
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.3% to $108,227.01
* Ether fell 2.6% to $4,343.75
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $63.97 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,451.48 an ounce

–With assistance from Isabelle Lee.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can make more friends in two months by becoming interested in other people than you can in two years of trying
to get other people interested in you. –Dale Carnegie, 1888-1955.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com