August 18th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

August 18, 1872: Frist mail order catalog published.
August 18, 1920: 19^th Amendment ratified: Women’s right to vote.
August 18, 1949: The first commercially successful photocopy machine is introduced by Chester Carlson and Haloid (later Xerox).
August 18, 1991: Soviet hard-liners launched a coup aimed at toppling President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, who was vacationing in the Crimea. Go to article.

Meriwether Lewis, explorer, b. 1774.
Rosalynne Carter, 1^st lady, b. 1927.
Robert Redford, actor, b. 1937.

Archaeologists found the body of a medieval knight underneath a tombstone that depicted him in full military regalia. Read More.

Astronomers used the James Webb Space Telescope to investigate whether the most distant star identified in the universe is, in fact, a star cluster. Read More.

Meteorite diamonds, which could be 58% harder than ordinary diamonds, have finally been made in the lab. Read More.

Floating offshore wind turbines open a whole new playing field for energy companies, which have so far had to stick to shallow waters. Read More.

Prepare for more delays, cancellations
Despite back-to-work orders from the Canadian government, more than 10,000 Air Canada flight attendants plan to continue their strike.

Monica Seles reveals illness
The tennis champ decided to see a doctor after noticing symptoms such as double vision and weakness in her arms and legs.

11 weird little hacks Costco shoppers should know
Do you shop at Costco? Then you know the thrill of saving money. But you might be missing other smart ways to stretch your dollars. Check out our list of genius money hacks — almost as good as that $1.50 hot dog!

Dedicated collector creates sports memorabilia masterpiece
And he did it all in just one year!

British actor Terence Stamp dies at 87
Stamp appeared in dozens of movies, but he was best known to American audiences for playing General Zod in two “Superman” films. He later provided the voice of Jor-El, Superman’s father, in the hit TV series “Smallville.”

Ronnie Rondell, a stuntman who was set alight for Pink Floyd’s 1975 album, “Wish You Were Here,” died at 88.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Fujian province, China
Fishing boats embark from Fuzhou after the end of a summer fishing ban in the South China Sea
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Beijing, China
Two robots fight during a kickboxing match on the second day of the inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games
Photograph: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

Lytham, UK
A man dressed as a 1940s police officer controls traffic during the Lytham 1940s Weekend in Lancashire
Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 18^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. -J. Paul Getty, 1892-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,922.85 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%. G. Mining Ventures Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.3%.
Today, 109 of 211 shares rose, while 96 fell: 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 25.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.49t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.69% compared with 9.70% in the previous session and the average of 8.01% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 23.8590| 0.8| 7/3
Consumer Staples | 13.1325| 1.3| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 10.8780| 1.2| 6/3
Utilities | 1.7006| 0.2| 7/7
Communication Services | 0.2078| 0.0| 2/3
Health Care | -0.6667| -0.9| 1/2
Industrials | -1.0912| 0.0| 17/12
Real Estate | -1.3350| -0.3| 4/14
Financials | -3.6250| 0.0| 14/10
Materials | -11.4572| -0.3| 22/24
Energy | -14.2314| -0.3| 20/17
Shopify | 17.9100| 1.1| -38.7| 29.2
Dollarama | 8.9450| 2.4| 21.9| 40.4
Constellation | Software | 5.6420| 0.9| 26.6| -1.1
Brookfield Corp | -6.3240| -0.7| -25.1| 8.8
TC Energy | -6.4760| -1.3| -9.6| 4.0
Enbridge | -8.6970| -0.9| 94.4| 5.6
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out a modest gain in the final minutes of Monday’s session, for its first gain since posting a record close last Wednesday, amid mixed commodity prices and on a dearth of market moving catalysts.
The resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index came with a late run to close up 17.36 points at 27,922.85, staying under the record close of 27,993.43 struck on August 13.
Reflecting the day in trading, most sectors were lower, led by Base Metals down 1.65% and Health Care down near 1.4%.
No sector was up even near 1%.
Among individual stocks, shares in Air Canada (AC.TO) closed down $0.59 to $19.18, with over 4.3-million shares traded, as its chief executive said he hopes the airline will resume services tomorrow despite striking flight attendants defying a federal back-to-work order.
However, before the close of trade, Air Canada said all flights of Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge remain suspended due to the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) “failing to direct its flight attendant members to resume the performance of their duties” as directed by the Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB).
The CIRB has also directed flight attendants to resume the performance of their duties immediately, it added.
Perhaps Wells Fargo caught the overall mood in equity markets across North America when it said today it expects stocks, albeit with a focus on U.S. ones, will follow the ‘classic’ post-election year cycle, “struggling to move meaningfully higher in the near term”.
Wells Fargo was a bit more optimistic on real assets, at least longer term.
It noted gold prices have “stalled out” after sharp early year gains, as “initial reasons for the rally have run out of steam, and there has been a lack of new catalysts.
But it said: “We believe this consolidation is just a pause with the longer-term uptrend, and we continue to favour gold and precious metals,” before adding, “investors should use pullbacks to add exposure.”
With commodities today, gold prices edged lower late afternoon Monday, while the dollar rose as Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and a group of European leaders headed to the White House following a Friday summit between the U.S and Russia that ended with President Donald Trump urging Ukraine to surrender territory to Russia in exchange for peace.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $4.50 to US$3,378.1, sticking to the tight range it has mostly traded within since late April.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose ahead of the Washington meeting, while traders turn bearish on the commodity as a report showed the first-ever combined net short position in WTI oil contracts.
WTI Crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.62 to settle at US$63.42 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.71 to US$66.56.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw a quiet start to a key Federal Reserve week, with geopolitics coming into play as President Donald Trump said he hopes to set a trilateral meeting with Russia and Ukraine as the White House welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss a potential peace deal.
Following a series of all-time highs for the S&P 500, the gauge wavered.
The Trump administration was said to be in discussions to take a stake of about 10% in Intel Corp.
Traders will get a close look at how American consumers were faring in the early days of Trump’s tariff regime when retail giants like Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. report earnings this week.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.34%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.2%.
The UK’s 30- year inflation-linked yields hit the highest since 1998.
Oil edged up.
Gold fluctuated.
A big week is coming up for the central bank as the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium kicks off Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The prestigious event in the Grand Teton mountains has been used by Fed chairs as a venue for making crucial policy announcements.
Jerome Powell is expected on Friday to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework — the strategy it’ll use to achieve its inflation and employment goals.
He may also drop some hints about the Fed’s thinking ahead of its September policy meeting.
“For now, the market appears to be betting that signs of labor-market weakness will outweigh inflation risk in the Fed’s rate-cutting debate,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will be the focal point this week, with the nature of the debate shifting from whether the Fed will cut rates to how much and how quickly, according to Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.
“The stars are aligning for a September rate cut; inflation remains relatively restrained and the labor market is beginning to show early signs of weakness,” they said.
Bond markets have been tempted to think it’s already a lock.
Two-year Treasury yields have plunged this month as traders swung toward pricing in a quarter-point reduction in September.
Those bets took off after the unexpectedly bad July employment report, which also revised payrolls for the prior months downward.
And they’ve only been dialed back slightly in the light of last week’s inflation surprise.
“If the Fed is going to cut next month, expect hints out of this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium,” said Scott Wren at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Interest-rate swaps show a roughly 80% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month by 25 basis points, with two cuts fully priced in by the end of the year.
“We believe that it would be irresponsible for the Fed to cut rates in aggressive manner going forward.
That would only make the bubble a bigger one than it already is right now,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“That would create much more serious problems when that bubble inevitably bursts.”
“It’s likely the FOMC will cut rates in September to manage the risk of a potential fallout in the labor market,” said Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics.
“But given uncertainty on the upcoming August jobs report, Powell won’t be able to say as much in Jackson Hole.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, Powell has considerable latitude heading into his Jackson Hole speech Friday in terms of how specific or not he wants to be in terms of the message for September.
“We suspect he will continue to be careful and will not commit his hand in advance for the next meeting,” Guha said.
“But we think the message will be consistent with what we see as a pretty solid central case of a ‘cautious cut’ with 25 basis points in September.”
At Ned Davis Research, Joe Kalish says investors looking for guidance for the September meeting may be disappointed.
“Powell will want to preserve his optionality,” he said.
Oscar Munoz at TD Securities expects Powell will begin signaling the Fed bias towards easing in his Jackson Hole speech.
His has firm revised its Fed call to rate cuts beginning in September after a more-modest-than-expected tariff passthrough in the July consumer price index.
With recent downward jobs number revisions and stable inflation, Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners expects the Fed to use Jackson Hole as an opportunity to prepare the markets and signal a potentially accommodating stance through year-end.
“We expect a 25 basis-point rate cut in September as a nod to the surprise weakness in hiring in recent months,” he said.
“The powerful combination of stable inflation, ongoing economic growth and expectations of declining interest rates justifies current stock valuations.”
Although multiples are elevated, stocks should continue to benefit from earnings growth into the end of the year, Saperstein noted.
“The economy continues to show resilience in the face of three years of elevated interest rates and more recently, the addition of tariff shocks,” he said.
US small-cap stocks have the scope to rally further as traders price in a rate reduction from the Fed next month, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management strategists led by John Stoltzfus.
They say near-term equity performance suggests “the market is recognizing fundamentals remain pretty much intact.”
S&P 500 companies trounced expectations this earnings season after they found ways to blunt the impact of tariffs and benefitted from a weaker dollar, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The quarter has been marked by one of the greatest frequency of earnings beats on record,” David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note.
Analysts are ratcheting up earnings estimates for the current quarter at the swiftest pace in nearly four years.
A Citigroup Inc. index that tracks the relative number of US earnings-per-share estimate upgrades versus downgrades is at its highest since December 2021.
“Strong beat rates, big upside earnings surprises, and increases in estimates during the past four weeks were consistent themes that gave investors very little to complain about,” said Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL Financial.
“This is a big change from first quarter earnings season in April and May, which was more muddied by tariff uncertainty.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, the combination of strengthening fundamentals and relentless technical momentum has pushed markets higher, even as retail investors defy traditional playbooks.
“As a result, institutions are being forced to move against their own models, raising the prospect that the usual period of market weakness may never materialize,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Novo Nordisk A/S is slashing the cost of Ozempic for cash- paying patients after the diabetes shot became the poster child for high US drug prices.
** Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy received US approval to treat a serious form of liver disease, beating rival Eli Lilly & Co. to the US market.
* Starbucks Corp. will give all salaried employees in North America a 2% raise this year, a shift from previous increases that were decided at managers’ discretion.
* A group of investors led by the owner of several boutique New York hotels agreed to take Soho House & Co. private in a $2.7 billion deal for the members’ club operator that’s struggled since its initial public offering.
* Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire human resources management software provider Dayforce Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Air Canada pulled its financial guidance through year-end, citing the impact of a strike by flight attendants that has caused the airline to cancel hundreds of flights.
* Bayer AG agreed to settle cases related to a Seattle-area school where more than 200 people were exposed to toxic chemicals made by the company’s Monsanto unit.
* Electricite de France SA will likely cut nuclear power production in northern parts of the country this week because of forecast shallow waters on the Meuse River.
* Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. will operate a US factory owned by SoftBank Group Corp., setting up what’s in the running to be the first manufacturing site in the Japanese company’s $500 billion Stargate venture with OpenAI and Oracle Corp.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“One potential antidote for all the uncertainty over US assets is the prospect of deeper rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Traders continue to lean closer to two quarter-point reductions this year, even if some Fed officials have argued for three.
To that end, this week’s Jackson Hole gathering could go a long way in bridging the divide.”
— Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1667
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3507
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.83 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $116,367.72
* Ether fell 2.6% to $4,355.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.76%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.74%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.77%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.94%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $63.34 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
What we achieve inwardly will change outer reality. –Plutarch, c.45CE-c.125 CE

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com