August 12th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday!

August 12, 1676: Jing Philip assassinated.
August 12, 1851: Sewing machine invented.
August 12, 1908: The first Ford Model T is sold, soon becoming the first car mass produced via moving assembly line – transforming transport and manufacturing.
August 12. 1920: Fans bid farewell to Happy & Fairfax, toe horses being replaced by a motorized fire truck at Engine company No. 46, New York, New York.
August 12, 1981: IBM introduced its first personal computer, the model 5150. Go to article.

Cecil B. DeMille, director, b. 1881.
William Goldman, author, b. 1931.
George Soros, financier, b. 1930.

Meteorite that crash landed through Georgia man’s roof is 20 million years older than Earth, scientists say
Researchers have analyzed the McDonough meteorite, which crashed through a man’s home in June, and determined that it is older than our planet. Read More.

‘Space hurricane’ caught raging over North Pole during one of the sun’s quietest days
A rare “space hurricane” that swirled over Earth’s North Pole in 2014 caused intense space weather effects despite unusually quiet solar conditions, a new study reports. Read More.

World’s first artificial tongue ‘tastes and learns’ like a real human organ
Scientists have created the first artificial tongue that can taste, and process flavors entirely in a liquid environment.

You’ve heard about squirrels causing power outages?
Well, four reactors at a nuclear power plant in France had to be shut down over the weekend due to some fishy circumstances.

Hubble telescope captures image of an interstellar visitor’s drive-by
It’s the fastest object that originated outside of our solar system to be observed traveling through it.

Caffeinated coffees are mostly free of toxins
But there are a few exceptions, a new investigation discovered.

Up for some ‘Camp Rock’ nostalgia?
The Jonas Brothers were discussing the 2008 hit Disney movie during their concert over the weekend when they brought out a surprise guest for an impromptu sing-along.

“Most Holy Father. Please go to Gaza and bring your light to the children before it’s too late. As a mother, I cannot bear to watch their suffering. The children of the world belong to everyone. You are the only one of us who cannot be denied entry.” — Pop superstar Madonna, calling on Pope Leo XIV in an Instagram message on Monday to embark on a humanitarian mission to Gaza.

$50 million: That’s how much reward money the Trump administration is offering for the arrest of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. He is accused of working with cartels to flood the US with fentanyl-laced cocaine. 

Studies show English speakers start feeling uncomfortable after a 4-secong pause in conversation, while Japanese speakers are at ease with silences lasting up to 8 seconds.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Portsmouth, UK
‘I snapped this photo during the annual kite festival. It was a gloomy day, with clouds blanketing the sun until the last few hours, when the skies cleared, making the spectacular kites pop.’
Photograph: Sebastian Kettley
Dorset, UK
‘The Milky Way core rises above an old fishing boat, the Phoenix, and a rusting fishing shack on Chesil Beach.’
Photograph: Harvey Grenville

Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
‘Going wild – a swathe of summer flowers on a local allotment.’
Photograph: Joanna Rimmer
Market Closes for Aug 12^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
There are only three ways to meet the unpaid bills of a nation. The first is taxation. The second is repudiation. The third is inflation. -Herbert Hoover, 1874-1964.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.5%, or 146.03 to 27,921.26 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%.
Altus Group Ltd/Canada had the largest increase, rising 9.5%.
Today, 160 of 211 shares rose, while 48 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.2% below its 52-week high on Aug. 7, 2025, and 25.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.3% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.73% compared with 9.76% in the previous session and the average of 7.29% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 64.1379| 0.7| 17/7
Materials | 36.4844| 0.9| 39/9
Industrials | 10.9305| 0.3| 23/6
Information Technology | 10.3033| 0.3| 7/3
Energy | 9.8115| 0.2| 31/7
Real Estate | 5.2537| 1.1| 15/3
Communication Services | 3.8520| 0.6| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4046| 0.4| 6/3
Consumer Staples | 1.7807| 0.2| 8/2
Health Care | 1.0791| 1.6| 3/0
Utilities | -0.9985| -0.1| 6/8
Shopify | 20.6300| 1.2| -30.0| 34.5
RBC | 18.4100| 1.0| -44.7| 7.2
Brookfield Corp | 16.5600| 1.9| -11.7| 9.4
Thomson Reuters | -6.0250| -2.6| 54.2| 1.7
Waste Connections | -7.5230| -1.6| 5.1| 4.7
Constellation | Software | -16.6400| -2.5| 30.1| 5.3
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange was up for a second-straight day Tuesday, and with a late flurry of buying managed to eke out a fresh record close by just about the narrowest of margins, amid some signs that market confidence around the outlook for the Canadian economy is being matched in investor circles.
Even with commodity prices lower, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 146.03 points, or 0.5%, at 27,921.26, topping the prior record of 27,920.87 set on August 6.
Most were sectors higher, led by Base Metals and Health Care, both up about 2%.
On signs of confidence around the Canadian economy, RBC Assistant Chief Economist Robert Hogue noted the first half of the year was marred with challenges for Canada’s housing market.
That made RBC rethink its forecasts, and the bank is now projecting that Canadian home resales will decline by 3.5% in 2025 from last year.
RBC noted the trade war derailed an early recovery in home demand.
But the bank is expecting that to get back on track in the second half of the year, setting up stronger demand in 2026.
However, the bank added, it will take longer for home prices to pick up in some regions.
Of commodities, gold futures edged lower late afternoon Tuesday even as the dollar and treasury yields fell after a report showed U.S. inflation was steady last month, keeping expectations for a coming cut to U.S. interest rates in place.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $6.10 to US$3,398.60 an ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to the lowest in more than two months on Tuesday after the Energy Information Administration slashed its price forecast amid rising supplies.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed $0.79 to settle at US$63.17 per barrel, the lowest since May 30, while October Brent crude was last seen down $0.53 to US$66.10.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Calm prevailed across Wall Street as an in- line inflation reading bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will have room to cut rates in September, driving stocks higher and short-dated bond yields lower.
All major US equity indexes climbed more than 1%, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 hitting all-time highs.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms jumped 3%.
While an initial rally in Treasuries faded, money markets priced in an about 90% chance of a Fed reduction next month.
Two-year yields, more sensitive to imminent policy moves, slid four basis points to 3.73%.
The dollar fell.
Underlying US inflation accelerated to the strongest since the start of the year, but a tepid rise in goods prices tempered concerns about tariff-driven pressures.
“Inflation is on the rise, but it didn’t increase as much as some people feared,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“In the short term, markets will likely embrace these numbers because they should allow the Fed to focus on labor-market weakness and keep a September rate cut on the table.”
With risks to the labor market rising, the Fed would likely tolerate temporarily higher-than-expected inflation prints — provided that the risk of second-round effects remains contained and price expectations stay well-anchored, according to Marco Casiraghi at Evercore.
“I think the real thing now to think about is should we get a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business.
He said the Fed could have cut rates in June or July if they’d had the “original” jobs reports numbers.
For equities, renewed bets on lower rates added to a rally driven by persistent enthusiasm over artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings.
“Stocks can continue to move higher, and it is going to take a much larger inflation number – or other shock to the market – for a correction to commence,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
The core consumer price index, which excludes the often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% from June, the strongest pace since the start of the year.
That was in line with economists’ forecasts, as was the overall CPI monthly.
“This data, together with recent consumer surveys show moderating inflation expectations and slowing labor market momentum, provides a reasonable backdrop for the Federal Reserve to begin rate normalization in September, even if year-over-year inflation remains above target,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
US officials have kept rates unchanged this year in hopes of gaining clarity on whether tariffs will lead to sustained inflation.
At the same time, the labor market — the other half of their dual policy mandate — is showing signs of losing momentum.
In a social media post, President Donald Trump resumed his criticism of Jerome Powell over the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady.
Trump also said he is weighing a lawsuit against the Fed chief over the renovation of the central bank’s headquarters – a project whose cost overruns have drawn scrutiny.
EJ Antoni, Trump’s pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has suggested suspending the agency’s monthly jobs reports and publishing only quarterly numbers until issues with data collection are corrected.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said uncertainty over the direction of the economy is decreasing, but it’s unclear whether the central bank should concentrate more on controlling inflation or bolstering the job market.
“The Fed’s policy stance is highly data-dependent, and with inflation contained and labor market softness increasingly evident in revised payroll data, the emphasis will now be skewed toward employment,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman
Sachs Asset Management.
“This inflation print supports the narrative of an insurance rate cut in September, which will be a key driving force for the markets.”
To Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital, Tuesday’s CPI data was tame enough that it gives the Fed the green light to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in September and opens the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut.
“Inflation remains under control for the moment, which means the risks are tilting toward the Fed’s full employment mandate,” said Jason Pride at Glenmede.
“The stars appear to be aligning for a September rate cut.”
Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research said the market reaction to today’s data is “surprising.”
“Stocks are rallying because a September cut is a lock; however, if I take the data at face value, it implies that tariffs are not being passed onto consumers, which means firms are tolerating a profits margin squeeze for the time being,” he said.
At TradeStation, David Russell says that while Wall Street is breathing a sigh of relief, anxiety will likely continue as tariffs work their way through supply chains.
“Tread carefully here,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Long-term investors often benefit from buying the dip, but that doesn’t mean the road will be smooth.
We’ve maintained that it’s a good time to know what you own, and to pare gains in runaway sectors exposed to tariffs.”
“This could be the calm before the storm,” said Greg McBride at Bankrate.
“A slew of tariffs are taking effect this month.
It may take a few months before those costs make their way fully to the consumer, but inflation is poised to pick up further in the remainder of 2025.”
There is some sign of tariff pass through to consumer prices but, at this stage, it is not significant enough to ring alarm bells, according to Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“Markets like today’s inflation print as it means the Fed can lower rates unheeded next month, she said.
“Rate-cut decisions in October, December and beyond may well be more complicated.”
With CPI out of the way, the focus will shift to Friday’s retail sales figure, where we’ll see if consumers appear as upbeat as corporate earnings commentary has made them seem and amid worries about the labor market, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
In other economic news, US tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record in July, though the increase wasn’t enough to prevent a widening in the monthly budget deficit — pointing to the federal government’s continuing fiscal challenges.

Corporate Highlights:
* Cava Group Inc. trimmed its annual sales outlook after a sharp deceleration in the second quarter as skittish diners spent less on restaurant meals, showing the pressure the brand is facing to keep up with its speedy growth in recent years.
* AI startup Perplexity made a formal offer to acquire Google’s Chrome browser for $34.5 billion, an audacious bid to get ahead of a potential requirement for the search giant to sell the web browser in US antitrust proceedings.
* Just two months after one of the splashiest public debuts in years, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group Inc. said revenue rose more than expected, sending its shares soaring.
* Gildan Activewear Inc. is in advanced talks to buy US underwear maker Hanesbrands Inc., people familiar with the matter said, in what would be its largest ever acquisition.
* The combination of Padcev, a bladder cancer drug from Pfizer Inc. and Astellas Pharma Inc., and Merck & Co.’s blockbuster immunotherapy Keytruda extended the lives of patients with a hard-to-treat form of the disease.
* If Novo Nordisk A/S’s wildly popular weight-loss drug succeeds in a highly anticipated trial for Alzheimer’s disease, Biogen Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer Chris Viehbacher doesn’t see it as a roadblock for his company’s medication. Rather, he sees it as an opportunity to potentially combine drugs and create a more potent therapy.
* Insmed Inc. rose after US regulators approved its drug Brinsupri as the first treatment for a debilitating lung condition, ending two centuries of waiting and paving the way for a potential new blockbuster.
* Smithfield Foods Inc., the largest pork supplier in the US, raised its full-year profit expectations as a rebound in its hog business counterbalances the impact of tariffs.
* Cargill Inc. revenue declined to the lowest in four years as the largest private company in the US continues to restructure in the face of declining crop prices and a shrinking American cattle herd.
* Opendoor Technologies Inc. has resumed its surge after cryptocurrency investor and influential newsletter writer and podcaster Anthony Pompliano said he’d bought shares in the digital real estate firm.
* China Evergrande Group said its Hong Kong stock will be delisted, marking the end of an era for the former high-flying developer whose demise came to symbolize the country’s property bust.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1675
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3495
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 147.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $119,673.86
* Ether rose 6.4% to $4,519.45
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.74%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.73%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.88%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $63.18 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,347.79 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We would like to live as we once lived, but history will not permit it. –John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com