August 8th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!  Full moon this weekend.🌕

August 8, 1899: Albert T. Marshall is issued a patent for an early domestic refrigerator, featuring an automatic motor cut-off safety mechanism.
On Aug. 8, 1974, President Richard Nixon announced he would resign following damaging revelations in the Watergate scandal.  Go to article.

Dustin Hoffman, actor, b. 1937
The Edge, musician, b. 1961.
Roger Federer, tennis player, b. 1981.

Proposed spacecraft could carry up to 2,400 people on a one-way trip to the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri
The design for a 36 mile long spacecraft, called Chrysalis, includes libraries, tropical forests and structural manufacturing facilities, all supported by artificial gravity.  Read More.

‘Oddly shaped head’ left in Italian cave 12,500 years ago is Europe’s oldest known case of cranial modification, study finds
A Stone Age skull discovered in a cave in Italy is the oldest evidence of artificial cranial modification ever found in Europe. Read More

NASA finds multi-billion-year-old ‘coral’ on Mars
NASA’s Curiosity rover has snapped black and white images of a rock on the Martian surface that looks remarkably like a piece of coral. Read More.

Scientists synthesized elusive ‘super alcohol’ — a ‘seed of life molecule’ that marks a step toward finding alien life
Scientists have synthesized methanetetrol, an elusive alcohol that could be the foundation of alien life. Read More.

Stone Age family may have been cannibalized for ‘ultimate elimination’ 5,600 years ago, study suggests. 
Researchers have found cannibalized human remains from at least 11 people in El Mirador cave in northern Spain, suggesting it was the site of a violent Neolithic clash 5,600 years ago. Read More.

Amtrak announces debut date for new Acela trains
The faster trains will service the Northeast Corridor between Washington, DC, New York City and Boston.
Butch Wilmore is retiring from NASA
The astronaut was part of a troubled mission that left him and NASA astronaut Suni Williams aboard the International Space Station far longer than expected.

Underwater jetpack ‘feels superhuman’
This toy, priced a shade below $30,000, will allow riders to zip beneath the surface of the ocean for as long as they can hold their breath.

Dunkin debuts a new booze drink
And it’s rum-based.

199 mph That’s around how fast one motorist was clocked while driving on the Autobahn in Germany.  

Kristin Scott Thomas does triple duty for new film 
Thomas makes her directorial debut with “My Mother’s Wedding,” which will be released in theaters today. She also wrote the script for the movie and stars in it. (Fans of “Four Weddings and a Funeral” will be particularly intrigued to see whom the mother is marrying.)

Here’s a column by David Brooks on well-being around the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Singapore
Robbie Lee of Team Great Britain competes in the men’s 10m platform preliminaries during the World Aquatics Championships in Singapore.
Photograph: Adam Pretty/Getty Images

Ankara, Turkey
A Turkish angora cat peeks out from a wooden shelter at the Ankara Cat Protection, Survival and Promotion Centre at Ankara University. The veterinary faculty houses cats in safe conditions and helps them find new homes
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Budapest
Hungary Members of the Spanish zenit aerial ballet present their performance entitled Aria at the 31st Sziget (Island) festival on Shipyard Island
Photograph: Tamas Vasvari/EPA
Market Closes for Aug 8^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion. –William Edwards Deming, 1900-1993.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 27,758.68 in Toronto.
Sun Life Financial Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 8.0%.
Today, 106 of 212 shares fell, while 104 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Sept. 13
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Aug. 7, 2025 and 26.5% above its low on Aug. 8, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.82% compared with 9.96% in the previous session and the average of 6.82% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -16.7056| -0.2| 14/11
Consumer Discretionary | -9.8156| -1.1| 0/9
Energy | -9.1341| -0.2| 16/22
Information Technology | -6.0697| -0.2| 5/5
Utilities | -0.8414| -0.1| 5/9
Real Estate | -0.2303| 0.0| 8/11
Health Care | 0.8156| 1.3| 3/0
Industrials | 2.9554| 0.1| 16/13
Consumer Staples | 4.5979| 0.5| 5/5
Communication Services | 7.9543| 1.3| 4/1
Materials | 23.8817| 0.6| 28/20
Sun Life Financial | -26.5700| -8.0| 285.1| -8.8
Shopify | -14.8200| -0.8| -24.8| 34.5
Pembina Pipeline | -7.4330| -3.6| 109.5| -7.9
TD Bank | 6.2630| 0.5| -69.6| 31.7
Open Text | 7.0120| 10.0| 149.1| 4.5
Celestica | 7.5950| 3.4| -5.2| 115.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange edged down Friday to end a mixed holiday-shortened week that produced two successive record closes before two negative sessions, as Canada Prime Minister, Mark Carney, moved to allay market concerns around an ongoing trade spat with the United States, and a weak domestic jobs report for July.
Reflecting volatility in closing commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged in to negative territory late in Friday’s session and finished 2.59 points lower at 27,758.68, even with most sectors higher.
In the latest on trade, Prime Minister Carney took questions on the fringes of an event in Ontario on Friday.
Almost inevitably he was asked about the ongoing trade spat with the United States, and specifically about the warning this week from Ontario Premier Doug Ford that he believes President Donald Trump will be coming at Canada with “double barrels” when it comes to renegotiating the existing free trade deal between the countries, known as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Ford said the U.S. president could move to reopen talks as early as November 2025.
Carney began by noting that 85% of Canadian exports to the U.S. are currently tariff free, while retaliatory tariffs are set in such a way that they a “minimum impact” on Canadians.
He also noted many of the issues that have come up in tariff talks with the U.S. are likely to be issues too when CUSMA talks start, they being issues around strategic sectors like steel, aluminum, autos, lumber.
“From our perspective, we are concentrating on those areas where our economies are deeply integrated and working for win-win solutions between the two countries.”
A CUSMA review, Carney noted, is slated for about nine months from now, and he said it is natural that consultations will begin in advance of that.
“We [the Canadian federal government ministers] are very conscious that there are a couple of negotiations in sequence and the extent to which those negotiations can be brought together … that is in the interests of all parties.”
A sign, perhaps, that the Canadian government is looking to at least delay the possibility of all out-trade war between the North America neighbors.
On the jobs front, Statistics Canada on Friday reported 41,000 job losses last month, while economists had expected a slight gain.
The unemployment rate was steady at 6.9% in July as StatCan said the number of job seekers held steady month-to-month.
Average hourly wages rose 3.3% on an annual basis in July.
Carney when asked about the jobs data noted the gains had been strong in June, while down in July.
He said it was interesting that, in terms of geographic spread, there were more job losses in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and in terms of sectors, less in manufacturing.
He noted the jobless rate held steady, and that wage growth was “outpacing” inflation.
Carney said wage growth, combined with recent federal tax cuts and the removal of a consumer carbon tax, indicate “progress” in terms of living costs for Canadians, even if more work still needs to be done.
Of commodities today, gold surged to an intraday record high of US$3,534.10 on Friday after the Financial Times reported the Trump Administration will put tariffs on imports of gold bars.
However, Bloomberg News later on Friday reported the administration called news of the tariff “misinformation” and it will issue an executive order to clarify that gold bars are not subject to tariffs.
The precious metal’s futures price immediately gave up the session’s gains and was last seen up $4.00 to US$3,457.70 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed unchanged at a two-month low after falling for six-straight sessions with traders looking to the potential end of Russia’s war on Ukraine as President Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, are expected to meet as soon as next week to discuss a ceasefire amid rising supply.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed steady at $63.88 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.17 to US$66.60.
An Israeli plan to take control of Gaza is also in focus.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market saw its best week since June, with a rally in big tech driving the Nasdaq 100 to all- time highs.
Also buoying trader sentiment were hopes the US and Russia will reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine.
Treasuries fell.
Gold whipsawed.
The S&P 500 approached 6,400.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps also hit a record.
Apple Inc. saw its best week since 2020 as plans to spend an additional $100 billion on domestic manufacturing may help the company avoid tariffs.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soared on reports the US is preparing to sell shares in an offering that could start as early as this year.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 4.28%.
The dollar barely budged.
Oil fluctuated.
The Trump administration suggested it would issue a new policy clarifying that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs.
US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as early as next week, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Bret Kenwell at eToro noted momentum has been strong in equities, and more than 80% of S&P 500 firms have beaten earnings expectations this quarter.
The technicals and the fundamentals have been working in bulls’ favor, he said.
“While an unexpected risk could develop in the second half of 2025, earnings have been better-than-expected and the Fed is inching closer to lower interest rates,” Kenwell noted.
“As long as the economy holds up, there are catalysts in play for stocks to continue higher.”
Trump said tariffs are “having a huge positive impact on the stock market,” adding that “almost every day, new records are set.”
Hundreds of billions of dollars are “pouring into our country’s coffers.”
“Markets rebounded strongly this week with a clear ‘buy on the dip’ mentality,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“While market sentiment appeared to be waning last week, with subdued reactions to earnings beats, this week clearly demonstrated a different trend.” And that begs the question: are we close to a solid ceiling?
“Our risk appetite indicator shows improvement from last week but clearly has room to grow,” Ielpo said.
At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson says that while the summer doldrums often lead to modest pullbacks in August and September, investors who have doubted this rally are now forced to “buy the dips… and not sell the rips” to play catch-up.
Despite the solid rebound, nearly $28 billion was redeemed from US stocks in the week through Aug. 6, while money market funds attracted about $107 billion, according to a Bank of America Corp. note from citing EPFR Global data.
“With the major indexes at or near record highs, valuations are rich, and stock selection and diversification are more important than ever,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
On the macro front, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said a majority of the bank’s clients are betting on a “Goldilocks” outcome, which implies an economy that’s running neither too hot nor too cold.
He said investors expect a scenario where lower rates would fuel a rally in equities.
Kenwell at eToro says that it would be a healthy price action for stocks to consolidate after a big rally — either by pulling back or digesting the move by trading sideways.
“This pullback would likely be viewed as an opportunity for investors to buy the dip rather than run for the hills,” Kenwell said.
“We believe stocks will stay supported amid solid fundamentals, but fresh headlines in the coming week may challenge investor sentiment that remains vulnerable to tariff, economic, and geopolitical risks,” said Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The next significant directional move in the market will be driven by fundamentals, either through macro resilience driving earnings estimates higher or further cracks in the labor market driving increased recession concerns, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Given the moderation in technical indicators and the sluggish seasonal shift, a period of consolidation is not unexpected or unhealthy,” he said.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said he supported last week’s decision by policymakers to leave interest rates steady, adding the US central bank is still missing more on the inflation side of its mandate.
Money markets have boosted bets on rate cuts after last week’s weak jobs numbers report.
Swaps currently assign a 95% chance of a Fed reduction in September and price at least one more by year-end.
Traders will soon be looking ahead to next week’s release of US inflation numbers.
“We expect the July CPI report to show that core inflation gained additional momentum,” according to strategists at TD Securities.
“We look for goods prices to gather further steam, as tariff passthrough continues to materialize.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Meta Platforms Inc. has selected Pacific Investment Management Co. and Blue Owl Capital Inc. to lead a $29 billion financing for its data center expansion in rural Louisiana as the race for artificial intelligence infrastructure heats up, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Tesla Inc. is disbanding its Dojo team and its leader will leave the company, according to people familiar with the matter, upending the automaker’s effort to build an in-house supercomputer for developing driverless-vehicle technology.
* Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan said he’s got the full backing of the company’s board, responding for the first time to US President Donald Trump’s call for his resignation over conflicts of interest.
* SoftBank Group Corp. is the buyer taking ownership of Foxconn Technology Group’s electric vehicle plant in Ohio, a move aimed at kick-starting the Japanese company’s $500 billion Stargate data center project with OpenAI and Oracle Corp.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 26% growth spurt in July, adding to evidence of accelerating spending on artificial intelligence.
* Expedia Group Inc. raised its full-year sales target after reporting strong second-quarter bookings, fueled mainly by its enterprise business as well as improved demand from US consumers.
* Pinterest Inc. reported second-quarter sales that beat analysts’ expectations, but earnings for the second quarter were less than Wall Street expected and user growth in the US and Canada, the company’s most lucrative market, was flat.
* Under Armour Inc. forecast worse-than-expected sales and profit for the current quarter, stalling a turnaround plan that was taking hold.
* Gilead Sciences Inc. lifted its full-year outlook after strong HIV drug sales in the second quarter helped revenue and earnings modestly beat analyst expectations.
* Wendy’s Co. cut its full-year sales guidance after posting a bigger-than-expected quarterly decline, highlighting the economic pressures weighing on the chain’s US business.
* Instacart posted its strongest order growth since 2022 for a second straight quarter and beat earnings estimates for the current period, a sign of resilience in its core delivery business after it rolled out initiatives to cater to price- conscious consumers.
* Trade Desk Inc. reported second-quarter results that spurred multiple downgrades. Firms note growing concerns about competition from Amazon.com Inc.
* Sweetgreen Inc. slashed its sales guidance after a second straight quarter of disappointing results, highlighting the salad chain’s struggles to sell $15 salads to budget-strained diners.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“An improving geopolitical backdrop has become a headwind for oil prices, especially as peace in Ukraine looks closer.
Traders will now increasingly look past geopolitical hurdles, leaving the market uncomfortably exposed to uncertain demand and rising supply.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1643
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3450
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.75 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $116,464.8
* Ether rose 4.8% to $4,062.95
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.76%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.85%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $63.64 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Anyone who has got a good book collection and a garden wants for nothing. –Cicero, 106 BCE-43 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com