July 31st, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
July 31^st, 1914: The New York Stock Exchange closed due to the outbreak of World War I. (Trading didn’t resume until December.) Go to article.
July 31,1991: The US and USSR sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty 9STARTI), capping deployed nuclear weapons and easing Cold War tensions.

Milton Friedman, economist, b.1912.
J.K Rowling, writer, b. 1965.
1790: US Patent office opens.

Russian volcano explodes in ‘powerful’ eruption, likely intensified by 8.8 magnitude earthquake
Klyuchevskoy volcano in Russia erupted shortly after a powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake in the same region. Read More.

Sticky goo in 2,500-year-old bronze jars finally identified, settling 70-year debate
A cutting-edge chemical analysis of a mystery substance that had stymied experts for 70 years finally revealed its identity. Read More.

‘It was so unexpected’: 90 billion liters of meltwater punched its way through Greenland ice sheet in never-before-seen melting event
A previously-undetected flood over Greenland’s ice sheet has confounded model predictions about how the region’s meltwater should leak. Read More.

‘Universal’ cancer vaccine heading to human trials could be useful for ‘all forms of cancer’
A new mRNA-based vaccine triggers a response from the innate immune system to help arm the body against cancer, a mouse study finds. It’s now in early human trials. Read More.

Google has turned 2 billion smartphones into a global earthquake warning system — it’s as effective as seismometers, tests show
Google’s earthquake early-warning system has used phone accelerometers on Android devices to increase quake alerts by tenfold across 98 countries. Read More.

‘South Park’ breaks record dating back to 1999
Nearly 6 million people watched the cartoon’s season premiere last week, which featured ruthless and profane commentary about President Trump.

Peanut butter and chocolate? Yes, please.
Oreo and Reese’s are collaborating on a new candy and what might be the perfect cookie.

Think round, not rectangular 
As hurricanes become more frequent and destructive, one company is building round, aerodynamic houses that are more storm-resistant.

Radioactive wasp nest discovered in South Carolina
The nest was found on a post near tanks where liquid nuclear waste is stored.

Starbucks shuts down entire line of cafes
The pick-up only stores encouraged customers to order via their mobile app and not linger.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yogyakarta, Indonesia
A local artist, Hangno Hartono, sits near an alien figure during the Indonesia UFO festival
Photograph: Dita Alangkara/AP

Whiterocks beach, County Antrim, UK
‘A touring cyclist on the beach, with Dunluce Castle in the background.’
Photograph: James Hamill

Worcestershire, UK
‘As our third heatwave came to an end, I stopped a while to watch the soft refreshing rain through the kitchen window.’
Photograph: Lynne Falconer
Market Closes for July 31^st, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1914, with war raging in Europe, the New York Stock Exchange closed and stayed shut for another four and a half months to allow the chaotic market to settle.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 110.18 to 27,259.78 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 16.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 141 of 212 shares fell, while 69 rose.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.8%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest drop, falling 7.7%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.5%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.9%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on July 30, 2025 and 25.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 1.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.80% compared with 6.69% in the previous session and the average of 6.14% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -38.6147| -0.4| 8/17
Industrials | -26.0700| -0.8| 6/23
Information Technology | -25.4334| -0.9| 1/9
Energy | -20.3804| -0.5| 8/32
Consumer Staples | -6.8547| -0.7| 3/7
Real Estate | -4.0082| -0.8| 4/15
Communication Services | -3.0190| -0.5| 1/4
Utilities | -2.3609| -0.2| 5/8
Health Care | -1.6055| -2.5| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | 0.4744| 0.1| 4/5
Materials | 17.6962| 0.5| 28/19
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -19.0600| -2.8| 125.1| -2.1
RBC | -12.6600| -0.7| -16.8| 2.6
Constellation Software | -11.2800| -1.7| 78.5| 7.5
Kinross Gold | 6.9690| 3.8| 70.9| 66.1
Enbridge | 7.6220| 0.8| -15.4| 2.9
TC Energy | 8.2870| 1.8| -44.4| -1.2
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second day on Thursday, bringing losses since Tuesday’s record high to near 270 points amid uncertainty that Canada and the United States will achieve an agreement on trade tomorrow’s deadline.
Not helped today by lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 110.18 points to 27,259.78, adding to the near 160 points lost Wednesday, when it dropped from Tuesday’s record close.
Among sectors, most were lower with the Battery Metals Index down 4%, Health Care down 2.7% and Energy down 1.2%.
Base Metals was up near 1.2%.
Just hours away from an Aug. 1 deadline, the United States and Canada remain locked in talks to resolve a brewing trade dispute.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday it is “possible” the two nations won’t reach an agreement before Friday, while U.S. President Donald Trump earlier Thursday agreed to extend talks with Mexico by 90 days, raising the prospect of a similar outcome for the Canadians.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, has said U.S. trade talks with Canada have involved the level of aluminum tariffs as some U.S. manufacturers, most notably Ford Motor, are dealing with a financial hit.
According to The WSJ, the Treasury secretary’s remarks Thursday signal possible relief for Canada’s aluminum sector, which, along with steel makers, faces a 50% tariff on their U.S. exports.
It noted Canada is the U.S.’s biggest foreign supplier of both metals, and the deals President Trump has made to date have maintained the 50% duty of steel and aluminum.
Of commodities today, gold edged lower midafternoon even as the dollar rose after a key U.S. inflation measure climbed in June and a day after the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank will hold off on interest-rate cuts as it assesses the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $5.30 to US$3,347.50 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling off a five-week high after an unexpected rise in U.S oil inventories and despite fresh sanction threats on Russian supply from the Trump Administration.
WTI crude for September delivery closed down $0.74 to settle at US$69.26 per barrel, falling off the highest since June 20, while September Brent oil was last seen down $0.73 to US$72.51.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in stocks sputtered ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline, with the White House demanding drugmakers to slash US prices.
Treasuries and the dollar barely budged in the run-up to the jobs report.
The S&P 500 erased a 1% advance for the first time since April.
Trump sent letters to 17 of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” hit all-time highs as Microsoft Corp.
briefly topped $4 trillion while Meta Platforms Inc. jumped 11% on solid results.
In late hours, Amazon.com Inc.’s profit forecast underwhelmed investors.
“While we expect equities to advance over the next 12 months, investors should be mindful of potential market swings in the coming weeks,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We think capital preservation or phasing-in strategies can be effective in navigating near-term volatility.”
Trump will sign an executive order imposing new tariff rates on trading partners that take effect Friday.
He has struck deals with the European Union, the UK, Japan and South Korea, and unilaterally set rates on other nations, including India and Brazil.
In addition, Trump is bringing in bank leaders to meet with him one by one at the White House.
He’s asking chief executive officers for their pitches on monetizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including a major public offering of stock, according to people familiar with the matter.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.36%.
The dollar rose at the end of its best month in 2025.
The yen slid as comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda were seen as less hawkish than expected.
In the run-up to jobs data, the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation accelerated in June to one of the fastest paces this year while consumer spending barely rose, underscoring the dueling forces dividing policymakers over the path of rates.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% from May.
It advanced 2.8% on an annual basis, a pickup from June 2024 that underscores limited progress on taming inflation in the past year.
The data also showed inflation-adjusted consumer spending edged up last month.
“Inflation remains sticky and justifies the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
“The stock market doesn’t need rate cuts in order to move higher and has already posted strong gains so far this year without any rate cuts.”
As with so many things in the economy, the situation is very fluid and we have yet to see the full impact of tariffs flowing through to inflation, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“We are priced for perfection as they say, and that is a risk, but one that will likely be ignored by the market as long as corporate profits are still growing,” he said.
Separate data Thursday showed initial applications for unemployment insurance were little changed last week.
Another report showed labor cost growth rose 3.6% from a year ago, matching the lowest since 2021, reassuring Fed officials that the job market isn’t a source of inflationary pressure.
The market’s attention will soon turn to Friday’s jobs report for July, which is forecast to show companies are becoming more deliberate in their hiring.
Employment likely moderated after a June increase, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.2%.
President Trump resumed his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank declined to cut interest rates, ending a short-lived détente.
Trump’s comments come after Fed officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but downgraded their view of the US economy, signaling that policymakers could be edging closer to lowering borrowing costs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google lost its appeal of a judge’s order requiring an overhaul of the technology giant’s app store policies in an antitrust case filed by Fortnite-maker Epic Games Inc.
* Figma Inc. shares jumped 250% in their public debut after the design software maker and some of its shareholders raised $1.2 billion in an IPO, with the trading valuing the company far above the $20 billion mark it would have reached in a now-scrapped merger with Adobe Inc.
* Boeing Co. has resumed contract talks with leaders of the union representing some 3,200 factory workers in the St. Louis area, after members resoundingly rejected its initial offer and voted to strike.
* A judge in California ordered Phillips 66 to pay an additional $195 million in punitive damages on top of an earlier $604.9 million trade secret theft verdict for what he called “reprehensible” conduct that nearly destroyed a much smaller fuel company.
* Mastercard Inc. reported earnings that topped analysts’ estimates and gave a more optimistic forecast for this year’s revenue on continued momentum in consumer spending.
* Moderna Inc. is cutting about 10% of its workforce, part of an effort by the struggling biotech company to reduce spending as sales of its Covid vaccine decline.
* Bristol Myers Squibb Co. slid as investors questioned whether the drugmaker has done enough to spur future sales growth in the face of an aging drug portfolio, even after lifting its full-year guidance and beating Wall Street’s quarterly sales and profit estimates.
* A trial of Eli Lilly & Co.’s blockbuster diabetes drug Mounjaro fell short of expectations that it would do a better job of preventing heart attacks and strokes than its older medicine Trulicity.
* Biogen Inc. raised its full-year financial guidance as growing sales of its Alzheimer’s drug helped the biotech company beat Wall Street’s expectations.
* CVS Health Corp. raised its 2025 profit guidance on strong results in its health insurance and pharmacy businesses, an encouraging sign after a spate of missteps by rival insurers.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1413
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3206
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 150.80 per dollar
* The Mexican peso was little changed at 18.8631
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $116,780
* Ether fell 0.9% to $3,737.04
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.57%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.94%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $69.18 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,291.21 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The wise does at once what the fool does at last. –Baltasar Gracián, 1601-1658.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com