July 14th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Bastille Day today.
July 14, 1789: Storming of the Bastille occurs in Paris, symbolizing the start of the French Revolution.
On July 13, 1977, a 25-hour blackout hit the New York City area after lightning struck upstate power lines. Go to article.

Isaac Bashevis Singer, writer, b. 1904.
Woody Guthrie, musician, b. 1912.
Gerald Ford, 38^th President, b. 1913.
Ingmar Bergman, director, b. 1918

Collapse of key Atlantic currents may be held off by newly-discovered back-up system, study finds
Rising temperatures in the North Atlantic are slowing vital currents, but a new process in the Arctic could save the day, scientists say.  Read More.

Ancient Egyptian rock art discovered near Aswan may be from the dawn of the first dynasty
Newfound rock art from ancient Egypt may shed light on the time just before the first dynasty. Read More.

The Perseids are coming — here’s how to watch the glorious meteor shower before the moon ruins the show
As many as 100 “shooting stars” per hour can be visible, but a bright moon on the peak of the Perseids on Aug. 12 and 13 means evasive action is required. Read More.

Experimental treatment for high cholesterol edits DNA in the body to reduce LDL
An experimental treatment called VERVE-102 lowers the amount of “bad” cholesterol in the blood of people with specific cholesterol-raising conditions. Read More.

Japan sets new internet speed record — it’s 4 million times faster than average US broadband speeds
A team of scientists in Japan shattered the record for the fastest internet speed by developing new fiber optics. Read More.

Wimbledon champs crowned
Tennis star Iga Świątek dominated her singles final against American Amanda Anisimova over the weekend. In the men’s division, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner won his first Wimbledon title against two-time reigning champ Carlos Alcaraz.

Guilty pleasure gatherings
“Love Island USA” is hugely popular, especially with Gen Z. But many fans aren’t just watching the reality TV show. They’re showing up for each other.

Craving some ‘SWAG’?
Justin Bieber surprised fans by dropping his first new studio album in four years.

Retire at 83? Nah!
Former Beatle Paul McCartney plans to go back on tour this September.

Man’s best (super)friend
Did you catch the new “Superman” movie over the weekend? If so, you may enjoy reading more about that furry scene stealer, Krypto.

‘Can’t beat the view’ 
Astronauts Nichole Ayers and Anne McClain reveal what life is like aboard the International Space Station.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Your Hand in Mine
Shows a physical process in action (eg aurora, wave motion, volcanism). Standing silently on the tiled siltstone of the ‘tessellated pavement’, this couple watched the immense geomagnetic phenomenon we call the aurora australis exploding in the sky above them. The pavement, comprising 250-280m year old rocks, slowly morphed into patterns that look astoundingly manmade, due to Earth’s movement and jointing combined with continual sea salt erosion.
Photograph: Jordan Cripps

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital – in pictures
Photographer Mick Tsikas has turned his camera capable of capturing hidden infrared light in Canberra. The result underscores how lush the national capital is
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Nevsehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons take off at sunrise, creating stunning views over the valleys of Cappadocia
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 14^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The dollar is our currency but your problem.  –US Treasury Secretary John Connally, 1971.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 27,198.85 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.7% on June 26 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.3%.
Thomson Reuters Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.7%.
Today, 143 of 213 shares rose, while 61 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 25.6% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.64% compared with 5.81% in the previous session and the average of 6.16% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 70.5813| 2.7| 9/0
Energy | 37.0551| 0.9| 27/10
Industrials | 31.1585| 0.9| 22/7
Financials | 26.9665| 0.3| 20/5
Consumer Staples | 6.7661| 0.7| 7/2
Utilities | 4.6678| 0.5| 12/2
Real Estate | 3.9560| 0.8| 18/1
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4984| 0.4| 6/3
Health Care | -0.0041| 0.0| 2/1
Communication Services | -1.1478| -0.2| 1/4
Materials | -7.8776| -0.2| 19/26
Shopify | 55.6000| 4.3| 17.1| 4.5
Thomson Reuters | 19.9100| 7.7| 355.7| 27.2
Enbridge | 14.4700| 1.6| 43.4| 1.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.9780| -0.8| -53.3| -1.8
Canadian National | -5.9530| -1.1| -35.9| -2.5
CIBC | -6.9650| -1.1| -22.1| 8.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a fresh record high on Monday following last week’s announcement of 35% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 175.60 points at 27,198.85, topping the previous high, set Thursday, of 27,082.3.
Information Technology and Industrials led the sectors, rising 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively.
Base Metals was the biggest decliner, down 1.6%.
BMO’s Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski, in his ‘Canadian Strategy Snapshot’ noted that since the market’s recent low in early April, the bank’s models show a clear broadening of performance across Canadian equities.
Notably, valuation and capital usage factors showed a “reversal quarter,” and are now ahead year-to-date-signaling a shift toward a more balanced and rational market environment.
“We expect this dynamic to proceed throughout the remainder of 2025 as the heightened rhetoric and fear-driven melee surrounding tariffs and macro uncertainty continues to abate,” Belski said, adding that investors should stay focused on long-term strategies, particularly GARP-style (growth at a reasonable price) approaches that combine growth, value, and quality.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said markets are showing mild risk-off sentiment to start a busy week, with several potential factors at play.
North American equity futures are slightly lower, down about 0.25% in the U.S. and even less in Canada.
In currencies, the picture is also mixed.
While the U.S. dollar remains strong, other major currencies like the yen, euro, and Canadian dollar are also holding their ground.
The Canadian dollar is likely still benefiting from Friday’s strong jobs report.
Sovereign bond markets are reacting in varied ways, with U.S. and Canadian yields edging higher, while UK gilts and European government bonds are seeing a bull steepening, he added.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Monday on rising supply and the threat of slowing global economies as U.S President Donald Trump renewed his tariff threats.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$1.47 to settle at US$66.98 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down US$1.04 to US$69.32.
Gold edged lower midafternoon on Monday as the dollar rose for a sixth-straight session.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$7.00 to US$3,357.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders parsing Donald Trump’s latest tariff remarks sent stocks mildly higher, with the market gearing up for results from big banks and inflation data.
Bond yields and the dollar edged up.
Oil fell as the US president’s plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine didn’t include new measures aimed directly at hindering Moscow’s energy exports.
The S&P 500 hovered near its record as Trump indicated he’s open to trade talks, even as he insisted the letters threatening new rates are “the deals.”
While Corporate America is bracing for its weakest earnings season since mid-2023, lower estimates could be easier for companies to beat.
As US financial giants kick off earnings season Tuesday, strategists say subdued profit expectations are setting the stage for their sizzling run to continue.
President Trump unleashed more tariff threats this weekend, declaring a 30% rate for Mexico and the European Union, and informing key trading partners of new rates that will kick in on Aug. 1 if they cannot negotiate better terms.
“We view the latest move from the White House as a negotiating tactic and maintain our base case that the US effective tariff rate will settle around 15%, which we believe will allow the S&P 500 to rise further over the coming 12 months,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
A 22V Research survey showed investors see the average effective tariff rate at 17%.
They also estimate tariffs will add 28 basis points to core inflation in 2025.
This is almost half of what was expected last month.
In the run-up to the consumer price index, Treasuries saw mild losses.
After months of seeing little inflation, the CPI probably experienced slightly faster growth in June as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
The moves in bonds also reflected investor concern about governments’ abilities to contain budget deficits.
Bitcoin briefly topped $120,000.
“The stock market’s muted reaction to the latest volley of tariff headlines suggests investors may be growing numb to them or are deciding that the tariff bark will likely be worse than the eventual bite,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
To Emily Bowersock Hill, investors have become inured to the tariff drama, arguably to the point of complacency, and the S&P 500 is now overpriced.
“Absent a negative surprise, we expect the complacency to continue, particularly given the equity market’s upward momentum,” said the founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners.
After months of seeing little inflation, June’s consumer price index probably experienced slightly faster growth as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
“Inflation pressures have remained muted so far, but tariffs will eventually feed through pushing prints higher and creating some discomfort for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
Meantime, the survey from 22V Research also showed that 67% of investors think core CPI is on a Fed friendly glide path.
In addition, 42% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk-on,” 29% said “mixed” and 29% “risk-off.”
“I don’t think people are viewing any of the data points expected over this week as being materially indicative of how to position portfolios,” said Josh Rubin at Thornburg Investment Management.
“We’re still in a waiting game around tariff policies as well as additional inflation and employment data that could influence Fed decision-making, and broader geopolitical developments, which are also in a quiet period.”
Rubin notes that activity naturally slows down during the summer period, and while investors will pay attention to earnings, most won’t view them as highly indicative of companies’ future outlooks, rather waiting to hear about any updated thoughts on tariff policy.
“We are not out of the woods just yet, as the next few weeks will be pivotal to see how countries respond to the administration’s new Aug. 1 tariff deadline,” said Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management.
“The big question for markets in the coming weeks is if earnings, which are expected to be solid, can overshadow the tariff issues.”
Investors already expect a sluggish second quarter, so the bigger risk may be to the back half of the year, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Will management again tell a good story about the consumer and its customers, providing some stability (or even upward revisions) to third and fourth-quarter earnings?” he said.
“If so, stocks could react favorably to that development.
If not though, and estimates are instead revised lower, stocks may decline as they reflect this new reality.”
US mega caps are attractive as they’re likely to be boosted by the fiscal spending bill as well as a robust earnings outlook, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
Meantime, RBC Capital Markets strategists including Lori Calvasina lifted their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,250 from 5,730.
The new level “is midway between the median and average of five different models,” they said.
“We still see a wide range of outcomes in our modeling which we think reflects a high degree of uncertainty.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. shareholders will vote on whether to invest in Elon Musk’s xAI, the billionaire said, after the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX agreed to pump $2 billion into the artificial intelligence startup.
* Investigators of the fatal Air India crash last month have found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing Co. 787 aircraft or the GE engines powering it.
* Autodesk Inc. is no longer pursuing an acquisition of PTC Inc., people familiar with the matter said, which would have ranked as one of the year’s largest deals.
* Kenvue Inc. said Chief Executive Officer Thibaut Mongon will leave the company as it continues to revamp the maker of Tylenol, Neutrogena and Listerine brands.
* CoreWeave Inc. is expanding a data center that is projected to double the electricity needs of a city near Dallas, another example of the strains that artificial intelligence workloads are placing on the US power supply.
* Best Buy Co. was downgraded to neutral at Piper Sandler, which cited lack of catalysts and competition.
* Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. was cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which cited “full valuation.”
* Huntington Bancshares Inc. agreed to buy Veritex Holdings Inc., which operates more than 30 bank branches in Texas, for $1.9 billion in an all-stock transaction.
* Chip-design software maker Synopsys Inc. secured China’s approval to buy Ansys Inc., setting the stage to close the $35 billion deal later this week.
* NIQ Global Intelligence Plc is seeking to raise as much as $1.2 billion in a US initial public offering, adding to a rush of summer listings.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4:04 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1669
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3428
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 147.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $119,769.05
* Ether rose 0.1% to $2,996.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.60%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $66.96 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,344.06 an ounce
Have a lovely day.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Believe and act as if it were impossible to fail. –Charles Kettering, 1876-1958.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com