July 07th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Fiesta de San Fermin, Running of the Bulls, Pamplona, Spain.

July 7, 1936: American businessman Henry F. Phillips receives patents for a new “cross-recessed” screw.  Now known as the Phillips head, it revolutionizes manufacturing with  its matching screwdriver.
July 7, 1987: Lt. Col. Oliver North began his public testimony at the Iran-Contra hearing, telling Congress that he had “never carried out a single act, not one” without authorization. Go to article.

Gustav Mahler, composer, b. 1860.
Marc Chagall, artist, b.1887.
Robet A. Heinlein, writer, b. 1907.
Ringo Starr, musician, b. 1940.

Astronaut snaps giant red ‘jellyfish’ sprite over North America during upward-shooting lightning event
NASA astronaut Nichole Ayers captured an electrifying image of a giant lightning “sprite” shooting up over Mexico and southern U.S. states. The red “jellyfish” could help researchers learn more about this rare phenomenon. Read More.

Oldest wooden tools unearthed in East Asia show that ancient humans made planned trips to dig up edible plants
The 300,000 year-old tools show that hominins in East Asia made planned foraging trips to lakeshores and designed instruments for specific purposes. Read More.

Giant radio telescope in the Utah desert could reveal hidden corners of the cosmos — and brand-new physics
Scientists say that the construction of a vast new radio telescope array in the Utah desert — known as the Deep Synoptic Array 2000 — could uncover some of the biggest
outstanding mysteries in astronomy. Read More.

AI chatbots oversimplify scientific studies and gloss over critical details — the newest models are especially guilty
More advanced AI chatbots are more likely to oversimplify complex scientific findings based on the way they interpret the data they are trained on, a new study suggests. Read More.

Taking the plunge
Swimming in the Seine has been illegal since 1923 due to pollution and risks posed by river navigation. But following a $1.5 billion cleanup project, Parisians and tourists are finally able to cool off by taking a refreshing dip.

Dino-Might!
“Jurassic World Rebirth” trampled its competition at the box office, grossing $147 million domestically over the five days of the Fourth of July weekend.

‘The great wait is over’
Oasis launched its reunion tour with a concert in Cardiff, Wales, on Friday. The famously feuding Gallagher siblings have not performed together since the band’s acrimonious split in 2009.

Even pontiffs need a break 
See where Pope Leo XIV is going to spend his summer vacation.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Birds perch on the antlers of a deer in Bushy Park, London, UK
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Sambar deer in an enclosure before being released in Khlong Lan national park, Thailand. The species is classed as vulnerable, but, in an unfortunate turn of events, these particular deer are being used to support Thailand’s wild tiger population, which needs prey: there are only about 200 endangered tigers left in the area
Photograph: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP/Getty Images

Wild yılkı horses graze around the grass-covered crater of Mount Karadağ, southern Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 7^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Traders come and go.  Risk managers are here to stay. -Nassim Taleb, b. 1960.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 27,020.28 in Toronto, ending a 4-day gain.
The loss follows the previous session’s little change.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
ATS Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.1%.
Today, 114 of 213 shares fell, while 97 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalizationof C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.89% compared with 6.15% in the previous session and the average of 6.40% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -28.4673| -0.3| 14/11
Energy | -23.1853| -0.5| 9/31
Industrials | -6.8263| -0.2| 16/13
Real Estate | -5.8351| -1.2| 0/19
Consumer Discretionary | -2.6926| -0.3| 4/5
Utilities | -1.0991| -0.1| 6/8
Consumer Staples | -0.1994| 0.0| 6/4
Health Care | -0.1221| -0.2| 0/2
Information Technology | 1.0279| 0.0| 4/6
Communication Services | 8.3725| 1.4| 2/3
Materials | 43.1351| 1.2| 36/12
Brookfield Corp | -14.1300| -1.6| 52.1| 4.1
Canadian National | -13.2200| -2.4| -8.2| -3.6
Manulife Financial | -11.2500| -2.2| -0.8| -5.2
Shopify | 9.1100| 0.7| -20.4| 4.1
Cameco | 9.4920| 3.1| -20.7| 38.9
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 12.3500| 2.2| -12.8| 48.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell again on Monday, edging down again from Friday’s record high, as confusion over U.S. tariff policies continues.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 15.88 points at 27,020.28, compared with Friday’s record close of 27,036.16.
Most sectors were in the red, except Telecoms, which was up 0.7%.
Decliners were led by Base Metals and Energy, which dropped 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank Economics, said the United States is once again delaying its tariff threats.
Treasury official Bessent said yesterday that if no trade deals are made by Aug. 1, tariffs will return to the high levels seen on April 2, extending the original deadline set for this Wednesday.
Trump plans to speak more about tariffs today.
However, the new deadline likely isn’t a serious threat, given the administration’s history of similar delays and the major economic damage those high tariffs would cause, Holt added.
“The rest of the world understands the US political cycle better than the US administration and it’s Trump that is under pressure into midterms more than the other countries.
Any ‘deals’ with the US administration are likely to be token ones as major trading partners resist longer-term damage emanating from deeply misguided US economic policies,” he said in the note.
Holt said the US dollar is trading stronger against most major currencies.
Government bond yields are mostly unchanged, with European bonds underperforming slightly compared to U.S.
Treasuries. In the United States, long-term bonds are lagging after the administration passed its “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which analysts estimate will increase the primary deficit by $3.2 trillion over the next decade “in highly regressive fashion that will negatively impact much of Trump’s base”.
BofA Securities analysts said there is growing optimism that Prime Minister Mark Carney could help revitalize Canada’s flagging economy and secure a trade deal with the United States by the July 21 deadline, a move that could boost Canadian bank stocks.
Recent steps like fast-tracking infrastructure projects and removing some interprovincial trade barriers also support that outlook.
After cuts to GDP forecasts due to tariff concerns earlier this year, BofA is now raising its 2025 growth forecast from 1% to 1.4%, citing a more resilient Canadian economy than previously expected.
Risks are seen as balanced, though a prolonged trade war with the U.S. remains the biggest downside, while further Bank of Canada rate cuts or more government spending could boost growth beyond expectations.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on closed with a gain on Monday even after OPEC+ over the weekend surprised the market by deciding to further speed the return of voluntary production cuts with an even-larger tranche of supply additions in August as the group looks to regain market share from producers outside of the cartel.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed US$0.93 to settle at US$67.93 per barrel, rising off an overnight low US$65.40.
September Brent oil was last seen up US$1.32 to US$69.62.
Gold was steady mid-afternoon on Monday as the dollar rose despite confusion over the timing of threatened U.S. tariffs.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$3.50 to US$3.346.40 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs and the dollar climbed after President Donald Trump began unveiling his tariff plans, with the US setting levies for nations such as Japan, South Korea and South Africa starting in August — triggering a selloff in their currencies.
The S&P 500 slid about 1%, with megacaps leading losses as Tesla Inc. tumbled nearly 7% after Elon Musk announced he’s formed a political party, raising concern about his company’s outlook.
Treasuries dropped, with longer-dated bonds underperforming.
Emerging markets got hit as Trump warned he’d add extra tariffs on countries aligning with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS.”
Trump unveiled the first in a wave of promised letters that threaten to impose higher tariff rates on key trading partners, including levies of 25% on goods from Japan and South Korea.
He also announced 25% rates on Malaysia and Kazakhstan, while South Africa would see a 30% tariff.
Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said there would be around a dozen countries that receive notifications about their tariffs Monday directly from the president.
Additional letters will be sent in the coming days, she said. “Investors should be alert to headline risk,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The scope for last- minute deals are high, but so too is the possibility of renewed trade tensions.”
“With the trade war returning to the limelight, Treasuries bear-steepened on Monday – a move that was consistent with the forward reflationary implications associated with higher tariffs,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
The strategists said that one positive to be taken away from the latest trade developments was that the higher tariffs won’t be in place during July.
That means “an indirect extension” of the original 90-day pause that would expire on Wednesday.
“The outcome could certainly have been more dire for the economic outlook had the additional window of relief not been included in the latest trade-war salvo,” they noted.
The European Union is not expecting to receive a letter setting tariff rates today, according to a person familiar with those discussions. The EU is seeking to conclude a preliminary deal this week that would allow it to lock in a 10% tariff rate beyond an Aug. 1 deadline as they negotiate a permanent agreement.
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC said he expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks.
So far, the US economy is holding up, hiring is healthy, and inflation has remained tame.
But the Federal Reserve is wary about tariffs despite pressure from Trump to lower rates and wants to see how they feed through to output in the next few months.
Investors on Wednesday will parse minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting.
The US central bank can’t assume its benchmark lending rate won’t return to zero at some point in the future, according to researchers from the Fed Banks of New York and San Francisco, who included New York Fed President John Williams.
The authors, in a blog post published Monday, found a 9% probability the federal funds rate would hit the so-called zero lower bound, or ZLB, over a seven-year horizon, with the current high level of interest-rate uncertainty contributing to that risk.
Elsewhere, oil rose as Saudi Arabia surprised customers in Asia by hiking prices for its main crude grade, a vote of confidence that the market can absorb extra OPEC barrels.

Corporate Highlights:
* CoreWeave Inc. is dropping $9 billion on the data-center operator Core Scientific Inc. in an effort to gain more direct control over the physical assets powering the artificial- intelligence boom.
* Apple Inc. appealed a €500 million ($580 million) fine from the European Union, calling the penalty “unprecedented” and the regulator’s required changes to its App Store as “unlawful.”
* Netflix Inc. was downgraded to neutral from buy at Seaport Global Securities, which cites valuation in the wake of strong gains at the streaming-video company.
* Applied Materials Inc. was downgraded at Rothschild & Co Redburn to neutral from buy on gowth risks.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. initiated coverage of MGM Resorts International with a sell recommendation due to the volatile Las Vegas market.
* Wells Fargo & Co. was downgraded to market perform from strong buy at Raymond James which says the stock’s “favorable fundamentals” are already reflected in its valuation.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1719
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3609
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 146.06 per dollar
* The South African rand fell 1.5% to 17.8357
* The Korean won fell 1.1% to 1,377.90
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $108,045
* Ether fell 0.1% to $2,543.27
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $67.99 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Practice is more important than theory, for what we must learn to do, we learn by doing. –Gaius Musonius Rufus, c.20-30 AD- c.100 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com