July 3rd, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Dog Days, hottest days of the year: July 3-August 11.
Earth at Aphelion: Furthest from the sun.
July 3, 1928: John Logie Baird demonstrates the first colour television transmission in London, pioneering broadcast technology.
July 3, 1985: The time-travel comedy “Back to the Future,” starring Michael J. Fox and Christopher Lloyd, was released in movie theaters. Go to article.

Franz Kafka, writer, b. 1883.
Tom Cruise, actor, b. 1962.

Astronomers spot potential ‘interstellar visitor’ shooting through the solar system toward Earth
A newly discovered object, dubbed A11pl3Z, appears to be moving too fast and straight to have originated in the solar system. If confirmed, it will be the third interstellar visitor ever spotted. Read More.

8 ancient Roman shoes of ‘exceptional size’ discovered at Roman fort near Hadrian’s Wall
Eight XXL leather shoes have been recovered from Magna, a Roman-era fort along Hadrian’s Wall. Read More.

James Webb telescope discovers tentacled ‘jellyfish’ galaxy swimming through deep space
A possible new “jellyfish” galaxy discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope could deepen our understanding of galaxy evolution and star formation. Read More.

Wild orcas offer humans food. Could they be trying to make friends — or manipulate us?
Researchers have documented orcas dropping prey and other marine life in front of humans, as if offering us food. The orcas’ motives are uncertain, but the sharing behavior could be an attempt at a cross-species relationship or manipulation. Read More.

‘We don’t need that in Australia’
Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, will not be able to visit Australia anytime soon.

Mothers and daughters
Apple TV+ plans to launch a new series based on Jennette McCurdy’s bestselling memoir, “I’m Glad My Mom Died.” And a big star just signed on to play the mother.

Travis Kelce’s ‘SNL’ situation
The NFL player enjoyed hosting “Saturday Night Live,” but he found one aspect of the gig truly challenging.

Be prepared to wait
AMC Theaters has signed a deal with National CineMedia to place even more advertising on the big screen before each movie begins.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wonsan, North Korea
Domestic tourists visit the beach at Wonsan Kalma, a massive resort on the east coast of the country. A pet project of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, the resort is expected to welcome Russian guests later this month
Photograph: Kim Won Jin/AFP/Getty Images

London, UK
Ajla Tomljanovic and Viktoriya Tomova play Eri Hozumi and Aldila Sutjiadi in the first round of the women’s doubles of Wimbledon 2025 on day four of the tennis championships. Hozumi and Sutjiadi won the match 7-6 6-2
Photograph: Julian Finney/Getty Images

Barcelona, Spain
A woman paddleboard at sunrise on the Mediterranean Sea as Europe struggles with a heatwave
Photograph: Nacho Doce/Reuters
Market Closes for July 3^rd, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
A worsening in the government finances is associated with a lower interest rate on government debt. -Maria Belen Sbrancia, The Liquidation of Government Debt, 2011.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.6%, or 164.6 to 27,034.26 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Cargojet Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.5%.
Today, 129 of 213 shares rose, while 83 fell; 9 of 11

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended May 16
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.34t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.13% compared with 5.97% in the previous session and the average of 6.54% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 71.4203| 0.8| 22/3
Information Technology | 45.7131| 1.7| 9/0
Materials | 20.8965| 0.6| 33/15
Industrials | 13.6832| 0.4| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 10.1744| 1.0| 10/0
Utilities | 2.4461| 0.2| 10/5
Consumer Discretionary | 2.4176| 0.3| 4/5
Real Estate | 0.9664| 0.2| 6/13
Communication Services | 0.1522| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | -1.1058| -1.6| 0/3
Energy | -2.1831| -0.1| 12/28
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange kept its upward streak intact on Thursday, rising to its third-straight record close as it climbed above the 27,000 marks as investors continue to show they are comfortable adding risk as a report showed Canada’s international exports are on the rise.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 164.6 points to close at 27,034.26,, topping Wednesday’s record close of 26,869.66.
Most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals climbing 4.4%, leading gains.
Healthcare was at the bottom of the list, dropping 1.7%.
Scotiabank, in its monthly publication on Canada-US Trade, said May may mark the beginning of a recovery in trade for Canada.
Statistics Canada reported that Canadian exports rose 1.1% in May, following a steep 10.8% drop in April.
This was the first export increase in four months.
Exports to the US fell by 0.9%, while exports to other countries rose by 5.7%, continuing a recent trend of growing trade outside the United States.
Canada is now less dependent on the United States for trade than before, with the share of exports going to the US dropping from 76% in 2024 to 68% in May.
John McNally, Senior Policy Advisor at Scotiabank, said that for Canada-US trade, the future is uncertain.
“A handshake deal to make a trade deal by July 21 offers promise to maintain stability or improve circumstances, but Canada has also committed to raise counter-tariffs on steel and aluminum imports if no agreement is reached by that date.
This could be a negotiating ploy or could re-escalate tensions mid-summer.
The recent reversal on the DST indicates a potential Canadian bias towards making a deal.”
The report added that one month of slightly improved trade does not answer all questions.
It will take a few more months, especially through July and August, before the full effects of tariff changes on prices, investment, and spending become clear.
For now, the data shows early signs of recovery but still reflects past disruptions.
Robert Embree, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, said with no large rebound in exports, he and the team remain “fundamentally bearish” on the Canadian dollar, as the weak employment and growth numbers should compel faster than expected Bank of Canada easing over the next nine months.
“The large trade deficit is another bearish pressure for the loonie, and the export growth after last month’s huge hit shows that the BoC has more work to do,” he added.
Vikram Barhat at Morningstar said Canadian stocks had a strong second quarter despite global uncertainty and a trade war led by US President Donald Trump.
Analysts credit this performance to the Canadian market’s defensive qualities, low stock prices, and a heavy focus on financial companies, which attracted investors.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower amid signs the market is oversupplied as US inventories rise during the summer driving season, with OPEC+ boosting production, while risk premiums ease as Middle East tensions fade.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.45 to settle at US$67.00 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.29 to US$68.82.
Gold traded lower late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar and yields spiked after the United States added more new jobs than expected last month, easing concerns the No.1 economy is slowing.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$21.70 to US$3,338.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries fell, and the dollar rose as stronger-than-forecast employment growth soothed concern the US economy is poised to slow, stanching speculation the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates any time soon.
Stocks hit fresh all-time highs.
Short-dated bonds led the rout, with two-year yields up 10 basis points to 3.88%.
Swap traders saw almost no chance of a Fed reduction in July, compared with a roughly 25% probability seen before the data.
The chance of a move in September ebbed to about 70%.
The S&P 500 climbed nearly 1%, with tech and banks driving gains.
The equity market closed at 1 p.m. New York time for the July 4 holiday.
Treasury trading wrapped up at 2 p.m.
US job growth exceeded expectations in June as a surge in public education employment masked a slowdown in hiring across the rest of the economy.
Payrolls increased 147,000 and the jobless rate declined to 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year ago — the smallest since July 2024.
“The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut,” said Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments.
“A wage-price inflationary spiral shouldn’t be a near-term concern, setting up something resembling a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powel has recently reiterated that the labor market remains solid, with officials refraining from lowering rates as they wait to see the impact of tariffs on inflation.
“The June jobs report should give the Fed more breathing room as they rely on a solid jobs market and economy to hold off on rate cuts while awaiting any potential inflationary impacts from tariffs,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“The June jobs report is like a summer blockbuster — plenty of action and a surprise twist,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“For investors, this is a green light to lean into opportunity, but stay diversified.
The economic engine is still humming, but now’s the time to tune up your portfolio before fall volatility rolls in.”
To Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, there are enough positive macro and fundamental drivers for markets to make additional gains, but there may be some near-term volatility as issues like tariffs need to be resolved.
Headline numbers from the June jobs report took pressure off the Fed to consider a rate cut later this month, but the solid figures masked weakness in private payrolls and other potential warning signs of deterioration in the labor market.
That’s a trend that could raise the stakes later in the year.
“While today’s report points to still firm job creation, we don’t think the underlying details of the report are as supportive as suggested by the top-line beat,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“The story of a low- fire, low-hire labor market continues to hold for now.”
With the Fed likely waiting until later this quarter or the next one before cutting rates, the stock market is likely to ignore the greater macroeconomic picture in the short run and focus much more on the start of the earnings season in mid July,
said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“We have been encouraged by the rapid recovery of the stock market these past three months but are concerned that valuations are high and that a lot of the good news is already priced in,” he noted.
“So the market is much more vulnerable to negative surprises at this point.”
To David Laut at Abound Financial, valuations aren’t a concern right now as “the market has too much inertia and there is room for valuations to expand.”
“We are sticking with the winners, which includes growth stocks, which have led the market since the April lows,” he said.
“Growth has led us out of the downturn, and we would expect this category to broaden out across company market caps, especially as interest rates decline.”

Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump’s administration has lifted recent export license requirements for chip design software sales in China, as Washington and Beijing implement a trade deal for both countries to ease some restrictions on critical technologies.
* CoreWeave Inc. said it has received the market’s first artificial intelligence server system based on the newest, high- end Nvidia Corp. chip, a sign of its rising stature in the competitive AI cloud-computing space.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. and Lucid Group Inc. rallied as BNP Paribas sees the EV makers benefiting Trump’s tax and spending bill ending electric-vehicle tax credits.
* United Parcel Service Inc. plans to offer voluntary buyouts to union-represented delivery drivers for the first time in the company’s history as part of an effort to boost profit by slimming down its operations.
* BlackRock Inc. is considering a sale of its stake in the leasing rights to Saudi Aramco’s natural-gas pipeline network back to the energy giant, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Volkswagen AG’s Audi won’t increase prices in the US in July after its sales there nosedived in the second quarter.
* Zurich Insurance Group AG agreed to buy BOXX Insurance Inc, a Canadian cyber risk management firm, marking the Swiss insurer’s latest push into the insurance technology sector

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8%
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1752
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3645
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 145.09 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $109,595.62
* Ether fell 0.5% to $2,578.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.35%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $66.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,328.88 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Smooth seas never made a skilled sailor. –Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1882-1945.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com