July 27th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
June 27, 1859: “Happy Birthday to You” song composed.
June 27, 1967: The world’s first ATM is unveiled in London by Barclay’s Bank.  It revolutionizes how people access their cash forever.
June 27, 1972 The video game company Atari was founded by Nolan Bushnell and Ted Dabney in Santa Clara, Calif. Go to article.

Helen Keller, b. 1880.
The world is full of suffering, but it is also full of people overcoming. -Helen Keller.

‘Pulsing, like a heartbeat’: Rhythmic mantle plume rising beneath Ethiopia is creating a new ocean
Scientists have detected rhythmic pulses of molten rock rising beneath eastern Africa, threatening to pull the continent apart. Read More.

Ancient ‘female-centered’ society thrived 9,000 years ago in proto-city in Turkey
Genetic analysis of skeletons buried in a Neolithic proto-city in Turkey reveals that female lineages were important in early agricultural societies.

Scientists forge path to the first million-qubit processor for quantum computers after ‘decade in the making’ breakthrough
Scientists in Australia have developed a quantum control chip that removes a key obstacle to getting qubits into practical, real-world computing systems. Read More.

‘City killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with ‘bullet-like’ meteors if it hits the moon in 2032
There is currently a 4.3% chance that the giant space rock 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in seven years. If this does happen, debris from the nuclear bomb-like impact could trigger a “spectacular” meteor shower that will endanger Earth-orbiting satellites.

Mystery behind cold blob in the Atlantic Ocean finally solved
Scientists have determined that slowing ocean currents are responsible for a cold spot south of Greenland. Read More.

‘It’s a sad day for us’
A foreshadowed death on “The Simpsons” has freaked out fans of the animated family.

Star-filled nuptials
Several A-list celebrities, including Oprah and Mick Jagger, have traveled to Venice for the lavish Bezos wedding this weekend.

From ‘Dune’ to 007
Oscar-winning director Denis Villeneuve has been tapped to helm the next movie in the James Bond franchise. “This is a massive responsibility, but also, incredibly exciting for me and a huge honor,” he said.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Pamiers, France
Soldiers of the 3rd Marine Infantry Parachute Regiment land in a field as they take part in the Cathare 25 exercise involving over 800 active and reserve military personnel
Photograph: Lionel Bonaventure/AFP/Getty Images

Lalitpur, Nepal
Farmers work in a field transplanting paddy saplings after the monsoon rain
Photograph: Subaas Shrestha/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Eastbourne, UK
Spectators react to a seagull that flew into the crowd during day five of the Lexus Eastbourne Open at Devonshire Park Lawn Tennis Club
Photograph: Adam Davy/PA
Market Closes for June 27^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
At your highest moment be careful, that’s when the devil comes for you. -Denzel Washington, b. 1954.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 26,692.32 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 4 of 11 sectors lost; 111 of 213 shares fell, while 98 rose.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.3%.
Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.9%.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.1%
* This month, the index rose 2%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.33t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.48% compared with 6.43% in the previous session and the average of 6.85% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -104.1686| -2.8| 5/43
Energy | -9.2323| -0.2| 14/23
Consumer Staples | -4.9844| -0.5| 7/3
Communication Services| -1.0307| -0.2| 2/3
Health Care | 0.4625| 0.7| 3/0
Utilities | 1.1643| 0.1| 8/6
Consumer Discretionary| 1.6671| 0.2| 6/3
Real Estate | 3.1003| 0.7| 14/5
Industrials | 6.4976| 0.2| 15/14
Information Technology| 22.5401| 0.9| 5/5
Financials | 24.3502| 0.3| 19/6
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -31.0200| -5.3| 37.8| 41.5
Wheaton Precious Metals | -10.8200| -2.8| 4.1| 47.9
Kinross Gold | -10.6600| -5.7| 47.1| 52.6
Brookfield Corp | 10.6200| 1.3| -6.2| 2.2
TC Energy | 11.5500| 2.4| 150.3| 0.0
Shopify | 12.9400| 1.0| 32.8| 1.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high on Friday, giving up early gains after U.S. President Donald Trump terminated all discussions around a trade deal with Canada, “effective immediately”.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 59.63 points at 26,692.32, falling off a session high of 26,806.62.
Despite overall losses, most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals Index. up near 6.7%, the biggest gainer.
Base Metals was the biggest loser, down 1.35%.
Trump, in an afternoon social media post, said Canada “just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country.
” According to Trump, Canada is “obviously copying the European Union, which has done the same thing, and is currently under discussion with us [on trade], also.”
Trump also raised the prospect of an all-out trade war between the United States and Canada.
In his post he added: “We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven-day period.”
This comes after Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney said they would pursue negotiations toward a new trade and security deal by mid-July, a 30-day deadline from their talks during a G-7 Summit staged at an Alberta mountain resort earlier this month.
CBC TV caught Carney as he left his office in Ottawa after the Trump update and the PM said he had not spoken to the President today and added: “We will continue to conduct these complex negotiations in the best interests of Canadians.”
While some speculated Trump’s threat may well just be his way of moving trade negotiations onward, a few observers noted the first payments from Canada’s digital services tax, which was enacted last year and applies retroactively to 2022, are set to be collected June 30.
Much of the revenue will be collected from U.S. tech giants.
The U.S. threat overshadowed the release earlier Friday of what Scotiabank referred to as a “messy” 0.1% drop in Canada’s April GDP data as the Bank of Canada faces a “more complicated inflation picture”.
Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, noted second-quarter GDP “might be tracking a decline” due to varied drivers including tariffs, weather and forest fires.
At the same time, he also noted, core inflation to date “remains too high and sticky … ahead of forward-looking inflation risks beyond just GDP and slack arguments.”
Holt noted Canada’s economy “stumbled” in April and May with an upward revision to March.
He said the reasons probably have much to do with unwinding the effects of tariff front-running and then forest fires and weather.
Q1 and Q2 are likely best combined in terms of tracking in order to smooth out these effects with the focus remaining on second half of 2025 growth, and on the more complex drivers of core inflation to date and going forward, he added.
Holt noted the 0.1% drop month over month in April was two-tenths lower than Statcan’s initial ‘flash’ guidance provided about a month ago.
He said some of that was due to weaker data since then as guided.
But, he added some of it was due to an upward revision to March GDP that moved up a tick to 0.2% m/m SA, thereby providing a higher jumping off point for April GDP and making continued growth more difficult.
Adding to the uncertain outlook for this country, Scotia in a separate note said nearly all Canadian provinces are poised for slowdowns in 2025.
Scotia said: “While the Canadian economy started the year with solid momentum, growth is expected to decelerate over the course of the year in the wake of the U.S. trade war and changes to Canadian immigration policy.
Rising unemployment and lower population growth will weigh on consumption growth, and housing market activity has slowed as households delay major purchases.
Exports are likely to decline due to the tariffs and spillovers from slower U.S. growth.
We expect growth in central Canada to underperform the national average, given these provinces’ higher exposure to trade risks.
“While we continue to think a recession will be avoided, there is a high degree of uncertainty as to how the tariffs will ultimately impact the economy — in addition to the possibility of new tariffs.
Policy measures from the federal and provincial governments could provide a boost to economic activity, especially over the medium-term.
That said, the tariffs and impact of elevated uncertainty are likely to weigh on growth in all regions of the country in the near-term, and compound the effects of sharply reduced population growth.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher for a third day on Friday with traders seeing solid summer demand amid falling U.S. inventories even as supply is on the rise.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $0.28 to settle at US$65.52 per barrel, while August Brent crude was up $0.18 to US$67.91.
Gold traded sharply lower late afternoon as a key U.S. inflation measure ticked higher last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $63.80 to US$3,284.20 per ounce, the lowest since May 19.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders weighing a flurry of tariff headlines drove stocks to all-time highs in the final stretch of a week that saw a de-escalation in Middle East risks and signs the world’s largest economy is holding up amid all the cross-currents.
A rally in bonds stalled.
Thedollar rose.
A torrid rebound in equities from April’s trade-fueled meltdown drove the S&P 500 to its first record since February, with the gauge closing above 6,170.
Tech megacaps led the advance, with Nvidia Corp. approaching the $4 trillion mark and Alphabet Inc. up almost 3%.
Equities finished higher as the White House touted progress on trade deals with a few countries, even though President Donald Trump said he was ending discussions with Canada.
The loonie slipped.
Trump in April put tariffs on dozens of American trading partners on pause for three months a week after declaring them, when markets panicked over the possibility they could trigger a global recession.
Since then, a $10 trillion S&P 500 surge has defied Wall Street expectations, underscoring conviction that the economy is withstanding policy uncertainty.
“US equities have continued to recover from the tariff induced selloff in March and April,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS’s Chief Investment Office.
“We think the recovery makes sense, considering that most large-cap companies should weather the tariffs reasonably well.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled there may be some extensions to wrap up major pacts by Labor Day.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU leaders behind closed doors she was confident a deal could be reached before the deadline, according to people familiar with the matter.
And China confirmed details of a trade framework with Washington.
On the economic front, consumer sentiment rose sharply in June to a four-month high and inflation expectations improved notably.
Data also showed that while the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose slightly more than expected, the pace was seen as consistent with tame price pressures that will allow the Federal Reserve to resume its rate cuts later this year.
“A window of opportunity is more likely to open at one of the final three policy meetings of the year — in September, October or December — when the impact of tariff increases on inflation becomes clearer,’ said Gary Schlossberg at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers this week that he expects inflation to pick up in June, July and August as tariffs become increasingly reflected in consumer prices, though he added if that prediction fails to materialize, the US central bank could resume rate reductions sooner rather than later.
Money markets continued to project at least two Fed cuts by the end of this year.
Wagers on a third reduction could gain momentum if next Thursday’s jobs report is weak.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, the latest PCE reading showed that inflation is still not spiraling out of control.
However, it did snap a three-month streak of lower year-over-year readings, while last month’s figures were revised higher.
“Today’s inflation report shouldn’t be enough to give markets a significant scare, but it probably dashes the slim hopes investors had for a July rate cut,” Kenwell said.
“Further, it may give investors a bit of hesitation with stocks surging into record high territory as we near quarter-end.”
Kenwell says that stocks can do pretty well in a mild- inflationary environment.
“The key will be a reassuring earnings cycle and a strong consumer as we go into the second half of the year,” he noted.
Indeed, with earnings season just weeks away,  stocks will get a major test.
Wall Street sees profit growth of 2.8% year- over-year for the second quarter for the benchmark, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
That would be the smallest jump in two years.
The lackluster forecasts magnify concerns from some market watchers that valuations are stretched.
The risk of a speculative stock bubble is increasing as expectations of rate cuts draw massive investment flows, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
Already this year, $164 billion has flowed into US equities, on course for the third-largest annual inflow in history, he said, citing data from EPFR Global.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nike Inc. said its yearlong sales decline is starting to ease, suggesting that Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill’s strategic moves are paying off.
* Apple Inc. and Google’s Android have been warned by a top German privacy regulator that the Chinese AI service DeepSeek, available on their app stores, constitutes illegal content because it exposes users’ data to Chinese authorities.
* Two years after Nvidia Corp. made history by becoming the first chipmaker to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization, an even more remarkable milestone is within its grasp: becoming the first company to reach $4 trillion.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares have soared from an April low on a grab bag of positive developments, but to Baird analysts that’s too far, too fast. They downgraded the lender to underperform from a neutral rating, giving the stock its second sell rating.
* Shares of Boeing Co. are set to make gains as the company speeds up production of commercial aircraft and takes steps to move on from a series of crises in recent years, according to Rothschild & Co. Redburn, which raised the recommendation on the shares to buy.
* Estee Lauder Cos. was raised to buy at HSBC, which sees the cosmetics company at the end of a downgrade cycle.
* B. Riley Financial Inc. has sold its financial advisory services business GlassRatner to Canadian private equity firm TorQuest Partners, adding to a series of asset sales as the financial services firm deals with its woes.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. unveiled a new iteration of its artificial-intelligence technology that will make it easier for users to generate and modify images from texts and visuals, as the Chinese e-commerce giant continues its aggressive push into AI.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1709
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3709
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.72 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $106,926.43
* Ether fell 1.2% to $2,416.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $65.15 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,270.92 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation. -Plato, c.428 BCE-c.348 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com