June 23rd, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

June 23, 1868: Christopher Latham Sholes received a patent for an invention he called the “Type-Writer.” Go to article.
June 23, 2016: The UK votes to leave the European Union, with a slim majority backing Brexit after over four decades of membership.

A new window into the universe is about to open. On Monday (June 23), the Vera C. Rubin Observatory — a joint project between the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy — will release its very first images in a live broadcast. The livestream begins at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) and will be simulcast on Space.com as well as on the Rubin Observatory‘s official channels. Viewers will get a first look at the magnificent images taken by the observatory’s 3,200-megapixel camera — the largest digital camera ever built. (Sources space.com, rubinobservatory.org).

Medieval gold ring found in castle in Slovakia has rare purple sapphire imported from Sri Lanka
An analysis of a 700-year-old ring reveals a unique reddish-purple sapphire set in 18-karat gold with a lion decoration. Read More.

There’s a ‘ghost’ plume lurking beneath the Middle East — and it might explain how India wound up where it is today
Researchers have discovered an unusual plume of magma beneath Oman that may have changed the course of the Indian tectonic plate between 25 million and 40 million years ago. Read More.

‘Dreadful danger for all mankind’: Einstein’s powerful anti-war letter goes up for auction
A fiery letter written by Albert Einstein in 1954 is going to auction. The letter details Einstein’s thoughts on his part in developing atomic weapons, and hails Mahatma Gandhi as a political genius. Read More.

AI hallucinates more frequently as it gets more advanced — is there any way to stop it from happening, and should we even try?
OpenAI’s most advanced reasoning model is smarter than ever — but it hallucinates more than previous models, too. Read More.

Jones bows out
Jon Jones, 37, who laid claim to being the greatest mixed martial arts fighter of all time, announced his retirement over the weekend.

Thank you for being a … frenemy?
Apparently, not all of “The Golden Girls” were as warm and fuzzy as the sitcom’s theme song suggested. Two of the show’s stars “couldn’t warm up to each other if they were cremated together,” a co-producer recently said.

Decanting success
The winners of the Decanter World Wine Awards 2025 were recently announced and one country triumphed above all others.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Space
A small section of NSF-DOE Vera C Rubin observatory’s total view of the Virgo cluster. Visible are two prominent spiral galaxies (lower right), three merging galaxies (upper right), several groups of distant galaxies and many stars in the Milky Way
Photograph: NSF-DOE Vera C Rubin Observatory/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Clichy-Batignolles, in the city’s north-west, is emblematic of the ‘15-minute’ city approach to urban planning
The park features a pond with native plants, as well as a fruit orchard, playgrounds and a skatepark.
Photograph: Ed Alcock/Guardian

2025 summer solstice at Stonehenge
The sun rises at Stonehenge on what was forecast to be a very hot day
Photograph: Sam Frost/English Heritage
Market Closes for June 23^rd, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
During the first period of a man’s life the greatest danger is not to take the risk.-Soren Kierkegaard, 1813-1855.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 26,609.36 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on June 2 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.3%.
Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.6%.
Today, 140 of 213 shares rose, while 70 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* This month, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025, and 23.3% above its low on June 24, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.15% compared with 6.31% in the previous session and the average of 7.16% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 53.0411| 2.1| 8/2
Financials | 52.5730| 0.6| 19/6
Materials | 32.2422| 0.9| 39/9
Industrials | 17.8460| 0.5| 25/3
Consumer Discretionary | 9.7440| 1.1| 8/1
Consumer Staples | 9.1258| 0.9| 8/2
Communication Services | 6.3746| 1.1| 5/0
Utilities | 4.7732| 0.5| 9/6
Real Estate | 1.7369| 0.4| 9/8
Health Care | -0.0722| -0.1| 2/1
Energy | -75.5965| -1.7| 8/32
Shopify | 40.5200| 3.3| -2.7| -1.3
Manulife Financial | 10.1700| 2.0| -17.6| -2.7
Constellation Software | 8.2240| 1.2| -20.1| 10.0
Cenovus | -8.7370| -4.9| 42.3| -12.3
Suncor | -14.4100| -3.0| -6.2| 4.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -27.5200| -4.1| 29.5| -0.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange was up for the first session in three on Monday, just failing to post a fresh record close Monday as investors overlooked divided opinions on the outlook for the Canadian economy, mixed commodity prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to do some broad=based buying.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 111.79 points, or 0.4%, at 26,609.36, back to within 10 points of its record close of 26,615.75 hit on June 12.
Among sectors, the biggest gainers were Information Technology, up near 1.45%, Base Metals, up 1.4%, and Telecoms, up 1.1%.
Energy was down 3.5% and the Battery Metals Index was nearly 1% lower.
On the outlook for Canada’s economy, RBC sees a “very small likelihood the economy goes pear-shaped and requires substantial stimulus” while National Bank says the Bank of Canada will need to ease monetary policy further to stabilize the economy.
RBC in a ‘Canada Rates Outlook’ note published today said devising an investment thesis is “challenging in the best of times, and downright difficult right now” with macro and markets “hostage to U.S. policy uncertainty”.
The bank said: “The delta on economic activity will be lower but the magnitude of the slowdown could encompass a wide range of outcomes.
The direct hit from tariffs is minimal but the indirect channels (uncertainty and a US/global slowdown) should drag Canada down, at least temporarily.”
“So far,” the bank added, “the economy has been resilient.
Headline inflation is contained, while core remains stubbornly sticky.”
Over the second half of 2025, according to RBC, the bond market will need to navigate three influences: an uncertain macro backdrop and volatile data; a trimodal distribution of 2026 monetary policy risks; a heavy issuance calendar.
It said: “We think the BoC is finished cutting interest rates.
If growth & inflation cooperate, there is a low chance they cut twice and a very small likelihood the economy goes pear-shaped and requires substantial stimulus.”
In contrast, National Bank in its Monthly Economic Monitor for June said the Canadian economy continues to show signs of weakness, held back by persistent uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which is “paralyzing” business investment decisions.
Domestic demand remained sluggish in the first quarter, while the labor market deteriorated sharply, the bank added.
National Bank noted the manufacturing sector remains the main loser in the face of U.S. protectionist measures.
It said: “The trend of front-loaded purchases by US companies, observed before the tariffs came into force, has logically been reversed.
However, the economic repercussions go beyond manufacturing alone, as evidenced by job losses in other industries.”
Despite this backdrop, National Bank noted, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged for the second time in a row in the face of reaccelerating core inflation.
“Although the geopolitical situation in the Middle East poses a risk to our inflation scenario, we remain skeptical that inflationary pressures will persist given the weakening labour market and the slowdown in wages,” the bank added.
National Bank believes that the central bank will need to ease monetary policy further to stabilize the economy.
The real estate market is in urgent need of support, as are households renewing their mortgages and facing a major payment shock, it said.
According to National Bank’s forecasts, slight economic contractions are likely in the second and third quarters.
The unemployment rate should stabilize at around 7.3%.
The bank anticipates GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate fell 7% on Monday as Iran retaliated to the weekend attack on its uranium-enrichment sites with a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar but gave hours of notice to minimize casualties.
WTI crude for August delivery closed down $5.33 to US$68.51 per barrel, down from an overnight peak of US$78.40, the highest in a year.
August Brent crude was last seen up $5.27 to US$71.74 But gold traded higher late afternoon on Monday as the dollar weakened following the U.S. attack.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $6.50 to US$3,392.20 per ounce but remained under overnight highs of US$3,413.80.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher as oil tumbled, with Iran’s retaliatory strikes at a US air base in Qatar seen as symbolic and unable to trigger a broader economic fallout.
The dollar fell.
The S&P 500 extended gains to 1% as President Donald Trump raised hopes of de-escalating the Middle East conflict, saying the Iranian attack Monday was “very weak” and telegraphed ahead of time by Tehran.
West Texas Intermediate dropped below $70 as concerns the conflict would disrupt Middle East supplies eased.
As worries about an imminent threat to inflation abated, bond yields slid.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the symbolic strike allows Iran to claim that it has retaliated against the US military, while sending a clear message it doesn’t want to get drawn into a war with the US it cannot win, which would threaten its regime stability.
“It is possible that Iran will fire against other US bases in the region in the coming days, but such attacks are not likely to be any less ‘scripted’ than this attack, de facto sealing a de-escalatory Iranian stance,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard at 22V Research. “Today’s attack hence should serve to lower global geopolitical risk premia affecting crude oil and gas trade in the Gulf region.”
The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude production and there haven’t yet been any signs of disruption to physical oil flows, including for cargoes going through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since Israel’s attacks began earlier this month, there have been signs that Iranian oil shipments out of the Gulf have risen rather than declined.
“The Iranian response today seems manageable and perhaps a clearing event, while other parts of the world have remained remarkably quiet, despite the weekend’s surprise action,” said Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners.
“Lower oil prices are providing a release valve for stress that built up over the weekend, also allowing the bull case of steady global growth to continue.
While a closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would be the biggest upside risk to oil, investors should lean against overshoots in crude prices, according to Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
“First, Iran relies heavily on this passageway for its own exports.
Closing it is unlikely as it would cripple its own economy.
Second, the US and allies maintain strong naval presence in the region.
Blocking the strait could trigger more severe military repercussions against Iran,” he said.
Oil prices traded in a $10-a-barrel range on Monday, first rising by more than 6% only to drop even more, underscoring just how on edge traders are and how critical every development in the region is to global energy markets.
“Despite ominous headlines, we are not seeing an increase in oil prices or geopolitical tensions in the markets as fears of the conflict spreading remain low,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“Unless investors fear the conflict will spread and engulf the entire region and dramatically reduce oil supplies, then rising geopolitical tensions won’t be a material negative on this market.”
While the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are dominating headlines, but selloffs caused by geopolitical events tend to be brief, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
“History suggests most geopolitically led selloffs are short-lived/modest,” strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note on Monday.
“Oil prices will determine whether volatility persists.”
According to the Morgan Stanley team, prior geopolitical risk events have led to some volatility for equities in the short term, but one, three and 12 months after the events, the S&P 500 has been up 2%, 3%, and 9%, on average, respectively.
Bond investors watching the latest geopolitical developments are on alert for hints on when the Fed will deliver the two 2025 rate cuts officials projected at their latest policy meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have two chances this week to explain to lawmakers why he and most of his fellow policymakers seem resolved to continue holding interest rates steady at least until September, ignoring President Donald Trump’s persistent calls to lower borrowing costs.
He will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m.
Tuesday, and at the same time on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee.
Money markets boosted bets on policy easing as Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman signaled support for a potential rate cut as soon as July.
Bowman said she would support lowering interest rates as soon as July and that, in her view, risks to the labor market could rise, while inflation appears to be on a sustained path toward the Fed’s 2% objective.
Her remarks echoed those from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said Friday that the central bank can lower interest rates as soon as next month, reiterating his view that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank could resume rate cuts if the inflation hit from tariffs remains subdued, without weighing in on the exact timing of such a move.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. jumped after the electric-vehicle giant rolled out its long-promised driverless taxi service to a handful of riders.
* Novo Nordisk A/S scrapped a partnership with Hims & Hers Health Inc. after less than two months, saying the US company is using “deceptive marketing” to sell copycat versions of its obesity blockbuster Wegovy.
* Northern Trust Corp. said it plans to remain a standalone company following a report that Bank of New York Mellon Corp. approached it about a possible merger.
* Meta Platforms Inc.’s WhatsApp messaging platform has been added to a list of apps banned from government-issued devices for congressional staffers in the US House of Representatives, a move driven by concerns about the app’s data security.
* VSCO, the popular photo-editing and social media app, is planning to release its own camera software for iPhones, as it joins a growing wave of third-party developers offering an alternative to Apple Inc.’s own camera experience.
* Ford Motor Co. intensified its campaign to preserve clean energy manufacturing subsidies Monday, warning jobs at its electric-vehicle battery plant in southwestern Michigan could bem at risk if Republicans in Congress pare back tax credits in President Donald Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar economic package.
* Fiserv Inc. is lauching its own stablecoin and joining with both traditional and crypto payments firms PayPal Holdings Inc. and Circle Internet Group Inc. to develop products for financial institutions and merchants within the banking technology provider’s ecosystem.
* Residential real estate brokerage Compass Inc. sued ZillowGroup Inc., alleging that the home-search website is using “anticompetitive tactics” with its plan to restrict certain listings.
* Omnicom Group Inc., the third-largest US advertising agency, agreed to stop withholding online ads for political reasons to clear the way for federal antitrust regulators to approve the company’s $13.5 billion buyout of rival Interpublic Group.
* Spanish drugmaker Grifols SA paid a higher price to buy blood plasma from an entity linked to its controlling family than from third-party suppliers, according to a regulator’s findings submitted in a court case.
* Huawei Technologies Co.’s latest computer product is powered by a chip manufactured using years-old technology, suggesting US sanctions are still preventing China from developing cutting- edge semiconductor technologies.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1579
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3527
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.15 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.7% to $103,275.07
* Ether rose 5.8% to $2,314.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8% to $67.96 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,376.72 an ounce

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us. –J. R.R. Tolkien, 1892-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com