June 17th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 17, 1885: the Statue of Liberty arrives in New York, a gift from France that becomes one of the most iconic symbols of the United States.
June 17, 1928: Amelia Earhart embarked on the first trans-Atlantic flight by a woman.
June 17, 1972: Watergate arrests.

John Wesley, founder of Methodism, b. 1703.
Igor Stravinsky, composer, b. 1882.
M.C. Escher, artist, b. 1898.
Venus Williams, tennis player, b. 1980.

Record-breaker
Two-time Olympic gold medalist Mondo Duplantis has broken the pole vault world record for the 12th time.

Stand up guys
Actor Al Pacino and film producer Andrea Iervolino (“Maserati: The Brothers”) recently met with Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican. Iervolino described the meeting as “a moment of profound spiritual and cultural inspiration.”

Good eats
The 2025 James Beard Awards were announced on Monday night. Outstanding restaurant honors went to eateries in Minneapolis, Minnesota and Boulder, Colorado.

Viking Age woman was buried with her dog in an elaborate ‘boat grave,’ excavations reveal
Researchers think the Viking Age boat burial of a woman and her pooch in Norway dates to between A.D. 900 and 950. Read More.

Enslaved Africans led a decade-long rebellion 1,200 years ago in Iraq, new evidence suggests
The Zanj, enslaved people largely from Africa, rebelled at the same time they were ordered to build a massive system of canals in what is now Iraq, a new study finds. Read More.

James Webb telescope ups the odds that ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in 2032
The James Webb Space Telescope has taken another look at the potential “city-killer” asteroid 2024 YR4 and found its chances of hitting the moon in December 2032 have increased to 4.3%. Read More.

People can be identified by their breathing patterns with 97% accuracy
Breathing patterns among humans are so unique that they can work as an identification tool, scientists report. They propose someday using breath as a way to diagnose disease. Read More.

This EV battery fully recharges in just 18 seconds — and it just got the green light for mass production
The British VarEVolt battery has been granted the certification needed so it can be manufactured on a large scale, meaning more EV makers can use them in their cars. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nestor’s Cave, Peloponnese, Greece
‘Descending from the old Navarino Castle, I came across the cavernous cave reputed to be the tomb of the mythical king Nestor. The view out looks down on to an almost perfect horseshoe bay called Voidokilia Beach.’
Photograph: Jan G Bek

Easter Island, Chile
‘Moai statues in the quarry that were never transported to the platforms.’
Photograph: Daniel Alvarez

Harold Hill, London
‘A bundle of Egyptian goslings having a rest in Dagnam Park’
Photograph: Ursula Armstrong
Market Closes for June 17^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Knowledge of Financial History is critical to successful investing. –Larry Swedroe.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 26,541.39 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.2%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.6%.
Today, 117 of 217 shares fell, while 98 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.5%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025 and 23.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.27t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.46% compared with 6.40% in the previous session and the average of 9.01% over the past month

Index Points
Industrials | -24.5794| -0.8| 9/19
Financials | -19.8448| -0.2| 7/18
Information Technology | -11.2576| -0.4| 3/7
Communication Services | -5.5431| -0.9| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -3.1884| -0.3| 4/6
Materials | -2.4605| -0.1| 27/23
Real Estate | -1.7774| -0.4| 3/14
Utilities | -1.0528| -0.1| 6/9
Health Care | -0.5249| -0.8| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | 1.0981| 0.1| 3/7
Energy | 41.9212| 1.0| 34/7
Shopify | -14.4100| -1.2| -31.1| -5.0
Canadian National | -11.4400| -2.1| 7.2| -4.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -10.1500| -1.4| -10.3| 5.0
Celestica | 5.2750| 3.7| -11.5| 36.1
Suncor | 6.8090| 1.4| -38.5| 9.1
Canadian Natural Resources | 17.5400| 2.6| 52.5| 4.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a modest loss on Tuesday as investors monitor developments on global trade at the G7 Summit in Alberta, even following the early departure U.S. President Donald Trump and events in the Middle East as Israel and Iran trade attacks for a fifth day.
Stock pickers are also likely digesting today’s commentary from the Bank of Canada around interest rates, with more expected to come on this from Governor Tiff Macklem himself tomorrow.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 27.22 points to 26,541.39, within a 100 points of the record close of 26,615.75 set on on June 12.
Among sectors, most were lower, with Health Care easily down the most at 2.3%.
Energy was the biggest gainer, up 1.7%.
Within the Energy sector, MEG Energy (MEG.TO) closed up 0.9% even as an expert said the oil-sands producer may struggle to find another buyer after the company urged its shareholders to reject a takeover proposal from rival Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO) on Monday.
“The ‘go it alone’ approach seems very implausible because the market didn’t like that approach before the offer,” Cole Smead, chief executive and portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management, told BNN Bloomberg in a Tuesday interview.
“(Investors) were effectively trading MEG like they had something wrong … their capital allocation overall we don’t disagree with and we think the management did a really good job.
The difference though is they don’t have an anchor shareholder, a large capital allocator like Adam Waterous.”
National Bank of Canada in its Monthly Economic Monitor for June said given the recent “lull” in global trade tensions it has revised its global GDP growth forecasts slightly upward for this year to 2.9% from 2.8%, and to 3.0% from $2.9% in 2026, reflecting a slightly more buoyant growth trajectory in the United States and the eurozone.
“The last few weeks have been a little less eventful on the international trade front, but that hasn’t stopped protectionist policies from having a significant impact on the global economy,: the bank noted.
“Fearing that they will have to pay more for their inputs in the future, many U.S. companies indeed have chosen to bring forward their orders from abroad.
This has not only helped to boost global manufacturing output, but has also led to the strongest annual increase in trade volumes since 2011, excluding the post-pandemic rebound.”
However, National Bank emphasized that the risks to this scenario remain tilted to the downside.
“Among these, two seem particularly important to us.
The first relates to a possible resurgence of trade tensions.
The second concerns a potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which would lead to a significant rise in oil prices.”
Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed up 4.3% on concerns the conflict between Israel and Iran could disrupt oil supply from the Persian Gulf even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global inventories are continuing to rise. WTI oil for July delivery closed up $3.07 to settle at US$74.84 per barrel, the highest since Jan.21, while August Brent crude was last seen up $3.38 to US$76.61.
But gold futures were down for a second day late afternoon on Tuesday as the dollar rose after U.S. retail sales fell more than expected last month, while the Federal Reserve’s policy committee begins its two-day meeting that is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Gold for August delivery was last seen down $13.30 to US$3,404.00 per ounce.
Bank of Canada officials debated cutting rates by 25 basis points in June, but were ultimately dissuaded by the “firmness” in economic activity and elevated inflation, noted Tiago Figueiredo over at Desjardins on Tuesday after the release of the BoC’s Summary of Deliberations, a summary of monetary policy deliberations by the Governing Council for the policy decision that was announced two weeks earlier.
The Governing Council, Figueiredo noted, “didn’t close the door to further rate cuts”.
He said: “While they will likely need to be see some progress on core inflation, the possibility of a trade deal with the US could leave central bankers more forward looking at their upcoming rate decision.
Assuming the economy continues to operate with considerable slack, a more forward looking reaction function would allow policymakers to look through some of the stickiness in the core inflation measures.”
Investors will look for more details around the BoC’s thinking on rates tomorrow when Governor Macklem speaks tomorrow to the St. John’s Board of Trade, Newfoundland and Labrador.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s concerns that an escalation of tensions in the Middle East could trigger a more direct US involvement spurred a slide in stocks, which also dropped as weak economic data lifted bonds ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
Oil hit its highest since January.
Risk-off sentiment prevailed, with the S&P 500 down nearly 1%.
West Texas Intermediate settled around $75 a barrel.
A gauge of crude-market volatility jumped to a three-year high.
The dollar climbed the most in a month.
Aside from geopolitical risks, Treasuries rose as tepid reports on retail sales, housing and industrial output supported bets the Fed will cut rates at least once more in 2025 if energy prices don’t become a threat to the disinflationary path.
President Donald Trump met with his national security team to discuss the escalating Middle East conflict, according to people familiar with the matter, fueling fresh speculation that the US is on the verge of joining Israel’s attack on Iran.
Trump posted a demand for Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and warned of a possible strike against the country’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding.
He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” Trump said on social media.
“For now, markets will remain mostly on edge until they lower the temperature in the region,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth.
Traders also kept a close eye on economic data, with US retail sales down for a second straight month, suggesting anxiety over tariffs and their finances prompted consumers to pull back after an early-year spending rush.
Industrial production dropped and confidence among homebuilders hit the lowest since December 2022.
“Investors should still expect some volatility in economic data due to lingering effects of trade policy,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“The economy and the consumer are holding up for now, but there are signs of vulnerability.
That could present risks in the second half of the year — particularly if we see a further slowdown in jobs or spending.”
With US central bank officials convening for a two-day meeting in Washington, traders continued to wager on just shy of two quarter-point rate reductions this year — with the first move fully priced in for October.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in June and July, but may telegraph its intentions via revised economic and rate forecasts on Wednesday.
A fourth straight meeting without a cut could provoke another tirade from President Trump.
But policymakers have been clear: Before they can make a move they need the White House to resolve the big question marks around tariffs, immigration and taxes.
Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear sites have also introduced another element of uncertainty for the global economy.
“The Federal Reserve is navigating a narrow path,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“We expect the Fed to wait until the fourth quarter before it reduces policy rates.”
“While there has been a strong buy-the-dip mentality with investors having been rewarded for fading negative news this year, we think it’s best to pull back on risk,” said Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of global market intelligence, who correctly predicted a multi-week stock rally back in April through this point.
“Positioning indicates that irrespective of Israel-Iran, the market was setting up for a pullback,” he told clients this week.
Global stocks will beat US equities over the next five years, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager survey, adding evidence that investors increasingly see America’s market dominance as coming to an end.
Some 54% of asset managers expect international stocks to be the top asset class, while 23% picked US stocks, according to the survey.
Only 13% said gold will deliver top returns, and 5% are betting on bonds.
It’s the first time that Bank of America’s survey asked investors to predict which asset class will performbest over a five-year horizon.

Corporate Highlights:
* India’s aviation safety regulator found no major safety concerns with Air India’s fleet of Boeing Co. 787 jets during  ongoing inspections following a crash last week.
* Solar companies fell sharply after Senate Republicans released a bill that would end clean energy tax credits earlier than expected, dashing hopes that major cuts passed by the House wouldn’t stick.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. will launch a pilot for a token called JPMD that represents dollar deposits at the world’s biggest bank, as financial institutions deepen their push into the digital-asset sector.
* Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy gene-editing biotech company Verve Therapeutics Inc. for $1.3 billion, the drugmaker’s latest investment in an experimental medicine that could fuel its long- term growth.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. is cutting commissions for brokers on some Medicare Advantage plans, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News, a move that appears designed to discourage agents from selling those plans.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. plans to hasten cost cuts by eliminating some flights, ending service to a number of cities and restructuring its leadership ranks as economic uncertainty feeds weaker-than-expected demand for travel, the company said in an internal memo.
* Builder Lennar Corp.’s forecast for quarterly orders missed analyst estimates as affordability challenges and economic uncertainty hold back buyers.
* Salesforce Inc. is increasing the price for many products, becoming the latest software maker to adjust its cost structure as it integrates artificial intelligence.
* Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy says he expects the company’s workforce to decline in the next few years as the retail and cloud-computing giant uses artificial intelligence to handle more tasks.
* Adobe Inc. released a standalone Firefly mobile application for Android and iOS in an attempt to put a larger spotlight on its artificial intelligence-powered image generation and editing tools.
* Penn Entertainment Inc. said its shareholders elected two new directors proposed by HG Vora Capital Management to its board at the company’s annual meeting Tuesday.
* SoftBank Group Corp. raised around $4.8 billion through a sale of T-Mobile US Inc. shares, a move that helps fund the Japanese company’s grandiose plans for artificial intelligence.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1485
* The British pound fell 1.1% to $1.3426
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 145.22 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.8% to $104,712.11
* Ether fell 5.3% to $2,529
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.4% to $74.92 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
As a matter of self-preservation, a man needs good friends or ardent enemies, for the former instruct him and the latter take him to task. –Diogenes, c. 413 BCE-c. 323 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com