June 16th ,2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
We soldier on…

June 16, 1215: Following a revolt by the nobility, King John seals Magna Carta, a tereaty guaranteeing feudal rights and laying early foundations for English democracy.
June 16, 1903:  Ford Motor Co. was incorporated.  Go to article.

Katharine Graham, publisher, b. 1917
Joyce Carol Oates, writer, b. 1938.

James Webb telescope discovers ‘a new kind of climate’ on Pluto, unlike anything else in our solar system
New James Webb Space Telescope data reveal Pluto’s high-altitude haze is a key driver of the climate on the dwarf planet, offering clues to Earth’s ancient atmosphere. Read More.

1,000-year-old Viking Age hoard has a pendant that may be a cross or Thor’s hammer
A metal detectorist in Germany has unearthed an Early Middle Ages hoard that contains 200 artifacts, including a pendant that may be a cross or an unfinished Thor’s hammer. Read More.

Groundwater in the Colorado River basin won’t run out — but eventually we won’t be able to get at it, scientists warn
The Colorado River basin has lost a Lake Mead’s worth of water in the last 20 years — and scientists say we’re passing a “critical point” where pumping groundwater
will become too expensive. Read More.

Good day, Sirs.
Former England football captain David Beckham, Oscar-winning actor Gary Oldman and The Who frontman Roger Daltrey have been awarded knighthoods.

J.J. Spaun wins US Open
The 34-year-old golfer defeated his opponents, Mother Nature and the brutal course at the Oakmont Country Club to win the 125th US Open championship.

Ice age ‘puppies’ are not what they seem
New research shows that the two 14,000-year-old mummified “puppies” found in Northern Siberia may not be dogs at all.

Toothless on top
“An insatiable appetite for PG-rated family fare” helped another live-action remake fly to the top of the movie box office this weekend.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Warwickshire, UK
People row on the River Avon near Warwick Castle
Photograph: Jacob King/PA

Aarau, Switzerland
The peloton at the start of stage two of the 88th Tour de Suisse
Photograph: Tim de Waele/Getty Images

Chanthaburi, Thailand
A dancer plays with fire on Chao Lao beach
Photograph: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters
Market Closes for June 16^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Money may be the husk of things, but not the kernel.  It gives you food, but not appetite.  Medicine, but not health.  Acquaintances, but not friends.  Servants, but not faithfulness.  Days of joy, but not peace or happiness. –Henrik Ibsen, 1828-1906.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 26,568.61 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 13.0%.
Today, 107 of 217 shares rose, while 105 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.6%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.8% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.40% compared with 6.59% in the previous session and the average of 9.76% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 56.3547| 0.7| 21/4
Information Technology | 40.7639| 1.6| 8/2
Industrials | 15.6297| 0.5| 22/6
Consumer Discretionary | 2.3005| 0.3| 8/2
Real Estate | -0.2961| -0.1| 8/9
Health Care | -0.4749| -0.7| 2/2
Utilities | -1.4359| -0.1| 6/7
Communication Services | -2.4346| -0.4| 3/2
Consumer Staples | -5.5578| -0.5| 2/8
Materials | -10.3544| -0.3| 13/37
Energy | -30.2402| -0.7| 14/26
Shopify | 33.1600| 2.7| -16.2| -3.9
RBC | 14.2800| 0.8| -7.9| 1.0
Cameco | 11.1100| 4.0| 31.3| 27.4
Waste Connections | -9.2670| -2.0| 37.6| 3.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.7300| -1.4| 112.4| 1.9
Enbridge | -14.6700| -1.5| 38.7| 2.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a gain on Monday after Friday’s dip from a day-prior record close, as President Donald Trump on the first day of this year’s G7 summit at an Alberta mountain resort, said he believes the United States and Canada can “work something out” to prevent an all-out trade war between the nations.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 64.26 points to 26,568.61.
Gains on the resources heavy index were likely capped as commodity prices moved off recent high levels, even as BMO Capital Markets did publish a note recapping what happened in Q1, and since, with Canada’s oil and gas exploration and production companies and referred to an “encouraging start” to 2025.
Among sectors, Base Metals and Information Technology were the biggest gainers, up 2.39% and 1.25%, respectively, followed by Financials, up 0.65%.
The biggest decliner was Energy, down 0.85%.
Boosting sentiment, Trump began the summit wearing a Canada-U.S. pin on his suit, an indication that he is, at least for now, dropping his talk of annexation and threats to Canadian sovereignty.
Also, Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Canada-U.S. Trade on CBC TV just before the close of trade said he and his team met their U.S. counterparts and had agreed to continue talking about trade issues and meet again later this week.
“I remain confident that we are making significant progress,” he added.
Of commodities, gold fell off a record high, even as the dollar dropped, with safe-haven buying having eased amid low expectations that the Israel and Iran spat will lead to a wider conflict in the Middle East.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $46.80 to US$3,406.000 per ounce, after rising to a record US$3,452.80 on Friday.
Not helping sentiment around the gold sector, earlier today, a Mali court ordered that Barrick Mining’s (ABX.TO) Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex be placed under temporary administration for six months.
Mali’s junta government will appoint Soumana Makadji, a former health minister, as the provisional administrator.
Barrick, which closed down, has said that it will appeal the decision.
National Bank said it believes a resolution in Mali without significant reduction in the overall ownership level and/or advancement of development at Reko Diq without significant disruptions/cost escalation are required to support an improved near-term outlook and associated multiple expansion for Barrick.
“The headlines today suggest progress in Mali remains a challenge and until the market has improved clarity in a resolution, we suspect the current valuation discount to peers will persist,” it added.
With oil, West Texas Intermediate crude fell off a four-month high as Israel and Iran traded blows for a fourth day but showed no appetite for disrupting shipments from the Persian Gulf.
WTI oi for July delivery closed down $1.21 to settle at US$71.77 per barrel after touching US$77.49 in overnight trade, while August Brent crude was last seen down $1.08 to US$73.15.
Still, the bottom line for BMO Capital Markets is the Canadian oil and gas sector reported better than expected first-quarter results, even as group performance “remained challenging” amid falling crude oil prices following ‘Liberation Day’, when Trump rolled out a plethora of tariffs that he promised would strengthen the U.S. position of the U.S. in global trade, and OPEC+ production increases.
BMO said this has led to reduced 2025 cash flow per share estimates across most of its Canadian coverage.
But despite weaker oil prices, the bank added most companies maintained their capital programs, showcasing “robust” balance sheets and “capital-efficient” operations.
BMO noted oil prices have since rebounded due to geopolitical risk while Henry Hub natural-gas prices have remained strong.
In Canada, BMO also noted, the Alberta gas trading price, AECO “C” spot, remained disconnected from other benchmarks, as the market waits for LNG Canada Phase 1 to solve the supply overhang.
At the current strip, BMO projects its coverage group (excluding restricted names) will generate approximately $28.4 billion (8.4% yield) in free cash flow in 2025 and roughly $27.6 billion (8.4% yield) in 2026.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Relative calm returned to global markets, with stocks climbing and oil sinking alongside gold as fears subsided that Israel’s war against Iran would escalate into a wider conflict.
News reports that Tehran wants to restart talks over its nuclear program also fueled risk-on sentiment.
Equities bounced after Friday’s slide, with the S&P 500 up about 1%.
West Texas Intermediate settled below $72 a barrel after spiking at the start of the session.
The dollar was little changed.
Longer-maturity Treasuries continued to lag the market even after a $13 billion sale of 20-year bonds drew the expected yield level — a notable improvement from last month’s auction disappointment that spurred a broad selloff.
President Donald Trump said Iran wants to talk about de- escalating the conflict with Israel even as the two sides exchanged fire for the fourth consecutive day.
Asked if the US would get more involved militarily, Trump said he didn’t want to discuss it.
Tehran is signaling it wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel and is willing to resume nuclear talks with the US as long as Washington doesn’t join the Israeli attacks, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday citing Middle Eastern and European officials it didn’t identify.
A similar report by Reuters says Iran conveyed the message through Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
The outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran disrupted the momentum that had driven the S&P 500 back near record levels.
While markets initially adopted a cautious, risk- off stance to assess how the conflict might unfold, sentiment improved on Monday as investors speculated the attacks were unlikely to draw in more parties.
“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“Markets got a reminder that tariffs aren’t the only potential source of market volatility,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Right now, markets are signaling they expect the situation in the Middle East will remain contained, but any surprises could have an oversized impact on sentiment.”
Despite the calmer market sentiment, there was little sign either side was effectively dialing back the conflict.
Iran fired several waves of drones and missiles over the last 24 hours, while Israel continued hitting the Islamic Republic’s capital, Tehran, killing one more senior military official and setting the state-television complex ablaze with a strike during a live broadcast.
The S&P 500 risks plunging if inflation spikes on the back of higher oil prices, according to a report by RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“The conflict has the potential to generate some additional angst about the health of the consumer, the broader economy, and the path of the Fed, a narrative shift that seems likely to be problematic for stock prices,” the strategists wrote in the note.
Meantime, the trading desk at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said potential pullbacks ahead would present buying opportunities.
The firm’s traders led by head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler added that the bull case remains in place, assuming tariff relief in the longer term is still underway — but advised caution until there is more clarity on the US involvement in Middle East.
Israel launched an attack on the South Pars gas field, forcing the halt of a production platform, following strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and military leadership last week.
However, critical crude oil-exporting infrastructure has so far been spared and there’s been no blockage of the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East producers ship about a fifth of the world’s daily output through the narrow waterway, and prices could soar further if Tehran attempts to disrupt shipments through the route.
Iran is prepared to deliver a “major blow” to Israel following its recent strikes on Iranian cities and targets, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency reported, citing a senior security official.
Meantime, Israel will pursue its military operations against Iran regardless of the progress of any potential negotiations involving the US, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
“We’re going to go about our operation to remove these two threats,” Dermer said Monday, referring to Iran’s missile and nuclear programs.
“Whether Iran will decide to meet with the United States and agree to terms that they should have taken a month ago, or two weeks ago, or two months ago, you know, that’s up to Iran to decide.”
Oil, Inflation, Fed Tensions in the Middle East will only add to the conundrum that major central banks face as they assess risks to inflation and growth from tariffs and stop-start commerce flows.
Wall Street will mostly focus on the Federal Reserve decision Wednesday, with policymakers signaling an extended hold on rates.
Investors will look to Chair Jerome Powell for clues on what might eventually prompt the central bank to make a move, and when.
“He may describe recent inflation developments as encouraging, but also downplay their relevance given uncertainty ahead due to tariffs, fiscal policy, and the recent spike in the oil price due to geopolitical developments,” said David Doyle at Macquarie Group. “On net, the risks to market pricing for 2025 lie in a hawkish direction post the communication.”

Corporate Highlights:
* After a year and a half of government talks, countless regulatory hiccups and last-minute negotiations, Nippon Steel Corp. secured its much-wanted prize late last week when President Trump approved the $14.1 billion purchase of United States Steel Corp.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. joined a broad rally in semiconductor stocks as Piper Sandler said products unveiled last week were positive and expects a “snapback” for the GPU business in the fourth quarter.
* Meta Platforms Inc. will begin showing ads inside of its WhatsApp messaging service, opening a new potential revenue stream while the company invests heavily in artificial intelligence and other long-term projects.
* Boeing Co. said it’s made more progress in the past four to five months on the long-delayed new presidential aircraft than at any point in the last four years as it identifies ways to streamline the complex program.
* Roku Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.’s Amazon Ads announced a partnership, saying that advertisers will now have access to more than 80% of US households with connected TV though the Amazon DSP marketing tool.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. said it won enough support from creditors to overhaul its debt as part of a plan to split into two separate companies, a significant victory for the entertainment giant as it tries to turn itself around.
* American Express Co. teased updates coming later this year to its travel-focused Platinum credit cards, announcing what it called its “largest investment ever” in a credit-card refresh.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. reported a second patient died of acute liver failure while being treated with its gene therapy for a rare muscle disorder.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1556
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3574
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 144.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.8% to $108,681.17
* Ether rose 6.3% to $2,660.65
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $71.36 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,384.25 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Not all those who wander are lost. –J R R Tolkien, 1892-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com