June 10th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.
June 10, 1907: The first practical and commercially successful colour photography process, Autochrome Lumière, is introduced by the Lumière brothers.
June 10, 1935: Alcoholics Anonymous founded
June 10, 1943: Ballpoint pen patented.
On June 10, 1967, the Six-Day War ended as Israel and Syria agreed to observe a United Nations-mediated cease-fire.

Saul Bellow, writer, b. 1915.
Judy Garland, actress, b. 1922.
Maurice Sendak, artist, b. 1928.
F. Lee Bailey, lawyer, b. 1939.
Elizaberh Hurley, actress, b. 1965

Gold coins from ‘world’s richest shipwreck’ reveal 300-year-old depictions of castles, lions and Jerusalem crosses
Researchers used robotic diving vehicles to study gold coins on the seafloor by the wreck of the Spanish galleon San José. Read More.

Ancient DNA from Papua New Guinea reveals centuries of genetic isolation
A new analysis of the ancient DNA of 42 people from Papua New Guinea reveals that some cultures were remarkably isolated for centuries. Read More.

See a young star potentially giving birth to a giant planet in new image from Very Large Telescope
New images of a young star, 2MASSJ1612, could have captured the birth of a giant gas planet larger than Jupiter. Read More.

Hammerhead shark falls from sky in South Carolina, interrupting disc golf game
An osprey flying over Myrtle Beach dropped the small shark from a tree after being harassed by crows. Read More.

Monster black hole M87 is spinning at 80% of the cosmic speed limit — and pulling in matter even faster
The famous black hole M87 keeps surprising us. New research calculates its spin speed to be at 80% of the theoretical limit, with matter falling into its maw even faster. Read More.

AI reasoning models aren’t as smart as they were cracked up to be, Apple study claims
A new study by Apple has ignited controversy in the AI field by showing how reasoning models undergo ‘complete accuracy collapse’ when overloaded with complex problems. Read More.
Whole Foods’ distributor hacked
United Natural Foods, Inc., one of America’s largest publicly traded health food wholesalers, has taken some of its systems offline after a massive cyberattack.

Highlights from the red carpet
What theatrical garb did Broadway’s biggest names wear to the 2025 Tony Awards? Here are 13 fabulous looks.

Talk about motivation!
Wanna be in an Adam Sandler movie? Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry may get the chance — if he rushes for more than 2,000 yards this year.

686,061:  That’s how many babies were born in Japan in 2024. It’s the first time the number of newborns fell below 700,000 since record-keeping began in 1899. 

“Ending a $5 million research study when it is 80% complete does not save $1 million, it wastes $4 million.” — National Institutes of Health staffers, in a letter to their boss, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, about what they see as the politicization of research and the destruction of scientific progress under the Trump administration.

RIP: Bestselling author Frederick Forsyth dies at 86
The thriller writer penned more than 25 books, including “The Day of the Jackal,” which was adapted into a film starring Edward Fox in 1973, and more recently a TV series starring Eddie Redmayne. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Piedmont, Italy
Britain’s Simon Yates pedals up the Colle delle Finestre climb during stage 20 of the Giro d’Italia, from Verrès to Sestriere. Yates reflected on a ‘sweet success’ he had been targeting for much of his life after a spectacular and decisive coup in Saturday’s final mountain stage ensured he would ride to victory in the Giro on Sunday. He said: ‘I’ve spent a lot of my life targeting this race. There’s been a lot of setbacks, and it has been hard to deal with. I’m in disbelief that I have finally managed to pull it off.’
Photograph: Luca Bettini/AFP/Getty Images

Sanur, Bali
Anglers fishing at sunrise
Photograph: Sonny Tumbelaka/AFP/Getty Images

London, UK
Part of Yoshitomo Nara’s record collection on display at the Hayward Gallery, where a major retrospective of the leading Japanese artist will open on Tuesday
Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 10^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Never make the big mistake. –Warren Buffett, b. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 26,426.31 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.4%.
Today, 109 of 217 shares rose, while 105 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on June 6, 2025, and 23.1% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is unchanged in the past 5 days and rose 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.24t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.86% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 14.04% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 29.2305| 1.2| 5/5
Consumer Staples | 20.9828| 2.1| 9/1
Energy | 13.5183| 0.3| 28/11
Financials | 13.0507| 0.2| 8/16
Consumer Discretionary | 6.2727| 0.7| 8/2
Utilities | 4.6509| 0.5| 12/3
Real Estate | 2.4763| 0.5| 9/10
Communication Services | 1.7255| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | 0.9653| 1.5| 4/0
Industrials | 0.0423| 0.0| 13/15
Materials | -42.4212| -1.2| 10/40
Shopify | 27.6200| 2.2| -19.8| -1.4
Couche-Tard | 13.9000| 3.6| 4.4| -6.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.0600| 1.7| 70.4| -0.8
Manulife Financial | -5.3180| -1.0| 1.3| -0.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -7.4780| -1.3| -21.0| 42.3
Cameco | -13.0700| -4.7| 46.7| 18.1
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Tuesday but fell just short of last week’s record close as National Bank says Canadian investors have “sat relatively comfortably in the unknown” on interest rates, while adding “the BoC has been happy to keep them there”.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended Tuesday’s session up 50.5 points at 26,426,31, single digit points below a Friday’s record.
One of three days last week it posted such a record. Lower commodity prices likely helped in keeping the resources heavy index from posting a fresh one today.
Most sectors were up, led by Health Care up near 2.4%, and with both the Battery Metals Index and Energy up more than 1%.
Base Metals was flat to lower.
National Bank on Tuesday published a note entitled ‘Be certain of BoC uncertainty’.
The bank found the Bank of Canada “isn’t just more uncertain than the FOMC”.
It said: “Uncertainty surrounding BoC decisions has proven more pronounced than any other advanced economy central bank.”
To quantify its claim, National Bank calculated the percentage of time central bank expectations for the next meeting deviate from a ‘certain’ outcome.
It defined certainty as OIS (overnight indexed swaps) pricing plus or minus five basis points of a possible outcome (i.e., no change, increments of 25 bps).
By this definition, it said, for over 90% of 2025, markets have been unsure how the next BoC decision would play out.
Over the past year, it added, this percentage exceeds 75%.
According to National Bank, this finding is “robust to the size of the certainty band” (e.g., if certainty were defined as plus or minus 10 bps of an outcome, the BoC is still most uncertain).
“Uncertainty does not necessarily mean volatility, however. BoC rate expectations have not swung as wildly inter-meeting as others, this year or last,” National Bank said, before adding: “Put differently, Canadian investors have sat relatively comfortably in the unknown, and the BoC has been happy to keep them there.”
True to form, National Bank said, expectations for the BoC’s July decision opened as a ‘coin flip’ immediately after last week’s meeting.
It noted that while Friday’s jobs data pushed markets in the direction of a hold, this meeting is still too close to call.
Another jobs report, two inflation reports, April GDP and a Business Outlook Survey will all have serious sway, National Bank said.
It added: “We still believe a cut next month is more likely than not, which brings us to the benefits of persistent uncertainty.
There are clear and frequent opportunities in trading near-dated BoC meetings for those with strong conviction on the rate path.
However, you’ll also need the stomach to weather the notorious volatility of Canadian economic data.”
In a separate note also published today, National Bank said in Canada new and pre-existing labor market slack still needs to be addressed in its view.
Indeed, it noted, of the 38 OECD economies, only three have endured a larger unemployment rate increase (from the post-COVID trough) than Canada.
“Unfortunately, we fear Canada’s labour market will get worse before it gets better which should intensify calls for Bank of Canada support in the months ahead,” the bank added.
Of commodities today, gold futures edged down mid-afternoon on Tuesday as the market watches trade talks between China and the United States that are now in their second day.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$10.60 to US$3,344.30 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for the first time in four sessions on Tuesday, amid uncertainty around the talks between China and the States.
WTI oil closed down $0.31 to settle at US$64.98 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $0.03 to US$67.01.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street investors closely monitoring trade discussions between the US and China drove stocks higher as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said negotiations went really, really well.
Treasuries and the dollar saw small moves ahead of a key inflation report.
The S&P 500 finished less than 2% away from its record.
Tesla Inc. led gains in megacaps. JM Smucker Co. sank the most in nearly four decades after saying tariffs increasing costs in its coffee business will hurt profit.
Bonds barely budged after a $58 billion sale of three-year notes.
That’s the first in a trio of offerings that will culminate in Thursday’s sale of 30- year debt.
Talks between the US and China extended later into their second day in London, with a Treasury official saying the teams were trying to iron out technical details.
Asked if negotiations would conclude Tuesday, Lutnick said “if they need be, we’ll be here tomorrow, but I hope they end this evening.”
“Any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where US and Chinese negotiations remain underway could meaningfully move markets today before focus turns to tomorrow’s critical May CPI release,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
Data Wednesday is expected to show US consumers probably saw slightly faster inflation in May, notably for merchandise, as companies gradually pass along higher import duties.
Prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in May, the most in four months.
The so-called core inflation, which is regarded as a better indicator of underlying inflation, is seen accelerating for the first time this year — to 2.9% — on an annual basis, based on the median projection.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed 42% of investors believe that the market reaction to the consumer price index will be “risk-on”, 33% said “mixed” and 25% “risk-off”.
This is the first time the reaction has favored risk-on since August 2024, 22V said.
“The combination of the May inflation figures and upcoming Treasury supply will provide investors tradable events and add to the market’s collective understanding of the early fallout from the trade war as well as demand for US debt in the current environment,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Yields on long-term global debt have soared in recent weeks as concern over spiraling debt and deficits led some investors to shun the securities and prompted others to demand a higher premium for the risk of lending to governments.
Investors betting that yields on long-dated Treasuries will keep rising faster than those on shorter notes risk getting burned, according to BNP Paribas SA’s Guneet Dhingra.
He said 30-year bonds already price in the worsening fiscal picture and could rebound if there’s strong demand for an auction or deficit fears ease.
As for US stocks, the rally is about as good as it’s going to get this year given tariff-related uncertainty, according to Anthi Tsouvali at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Her team expects the S&P 500 to end the year around 6,000 – not far from where the gauge is currently trading.
Meantime, analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
While stocks have roared back from their tariff-fueled April slide, big money managers remain remarkably underweight: Their overall equity positioning has been lower only 23% of the time since 2010, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Bank of America Corp. clients were net sellers of US equities last week, with outflows led by institutional investors as hedge funds and retails purchased shares, strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Tuesday in a note to clients.
“Our S&P 500 Index valuation work suggests a historical premium for domestically oriented vs. foreign-exposed stocks, indicating that tariffs/de-globalization are generally priced in (but the tax bill not so much),” Carey Hall wrote.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. executives including Elon Musk promoted a video of one of its vehicles driving in Austin with nobody behind the wheel, hinting that it’s close to launching its robotaxi service in the Texas capital.
* Mark Zuckerberg, frustrated with Meta Platforms Inc.’s shortfalls in AI, is assembling a team of experts to achieve artificial general intelligence, recruiting from a brain trust of AI researchers and engineers who’ve met with him in recent weeks at his homes in Lake Tahoe and Palo Alto.
* Wells Fargo & Co.’s Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap that restricted its size for more than seven years was “grossly unfair,” said Jamie Dimon, longtime boss of its biggest rival.
* Boeing Co. scored the highest monthly order intake in more than a year, including a huge haul during President Trump’s trip to the Middle East, giving the US planemaker a commercial boost as it heads into the crucial Paris Air Show next week.
* Redburn Atlantic slapped McDonald’s Corp. with its sole sell rating, saying shifting consumer patterns due to weight-loss drugs and inflation are cause for concern.
* Eli Lilly & Co. will only work with telehealth firms that agree to stop selling copycat versions of weight-loss drugs, diminishing the likelihood of a partnership with one most visible players in the industry, Hims & Hers Health Inc.
* Citigroup Inc. is set to put aside hundreds of millions of dollars more than it did last quarter to account for potential losses on loans and credit cards it issues to its clients, a sign of likely worsening consumer health that runs counter to analysts’ expectations.
* Bondholders to EchoStar Corp. are working with law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld as the telecommunications company mulls a potential bankruptcy filing amid a Federal Communications Commission probe, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1425
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3502
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.91 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $109,528.73
* Ether rose 7.1% to $2,774.45
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $64.91 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens. -Jimi Hendrix, 1942-1970.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com