June 09th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

June 9, 1928: Charles Kingsford Smith completes the world’s first trans-Pacific flight, landing in Australia after departing from the United States.
June 9, 1986: The Rogers Commission released its report on the Challenger disaster, criticizing NASA and rocket-builder Morton Thiokol for management problems leading to the explosion that claimed the lives of seven astronauts.  Go to article.
1898: Hong Kong lease signed from Britain.

Cole Porter, composer, b. 1891.
Donald Duck, cartoon, b. 1934.
Johnny Depp, actor, b. 1963.

World record smashed
Canadian swimmer Summer McIntosh broke the 400m freestyle world record over the weekend, trimming more than a second off the previous mark.

Is it a scam? Yep.
If you ever wanted to learn more about fraud, Alex Falcone has created a useful TikTok channel. In rapid-fire monologues, the comedian discusses the many ways people and companies scam consumers.

Remain on guard at all times
Hackers have tricked employees at companies in Europe and the Americas into installing a modified version of a Salesforce-related app that allows them to steal reams of data and extort those companies.

Using AI to peer into the past
Many of the Dead Sea Scrolls may be older than previously thought, a new analysis shows. 

Bag on the block
The original Hermès Birkin bag will go under the hammer at Sotheby’s in Paris next month. The all-black, leather handbag is the first version of the timeless luxury staple.

Blue-eyed ‘Ice Prince’ toddler was buried with a sword and a piglet 1,350 years ago in Bavaria. Read more.

What’s the difference between a leopard and a jaguar?

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Batroun, Lebanon
A freediver looks at a lionfish, an invasive species in the Mediterranean, while diving near Lebanon
Photograph: Ibrahim Chalhoub/AFP/Getty Images

Glasgow, Scotland
Riders in Glasgow’s East End begin stage four of the women’s 2025 Tour of Britain
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Medellín’s sublime return to nature
Plaza Botero. Designers paid special attention to the composition of the landscape, Noreña Restrepo said: ‘Where there’s vegetation, it’s not just a tree, but rather a combination of different species. So, it’s very pleasant to walk around – yes, because of the lower temperature, but also because the city is much more beautiful’
Photograph: Jaime Saldarriaga/Guardian
Market Closes for June 9^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The man who is a bear on the future of the United States will always go broke. -J.P.  Morgan, 1895.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 26,375.80 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.3%.
Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.8%.
Today, 85 of 217 shares fell, while 129 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.9%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 6, 2025, and 22.9% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month m basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.86% compared with 6.75% in the previous session and the average of 15.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | -44.9964| -1.8| 6/4
Financials | -27.4224| -0.3| 10/15
Industrials | -6.2022| -0.2| 15/13
Consumer Discretionary | -4.4962| -0.5| 7/3
Consumer Staples | -3.8575| -0.4| 3/7
Health Care | -0.2284| -0.4| 1/2
Utilities | 0.9357| 0.1| 6/9
Communication Services | 2.1181| 0.4| 2/3
Real Estate | 2.6297| 0.5| 16/2
Energy | 7.8017| 0.2| 31/10
Materials | 20.3918| 0.6| 32/17
Shopify | -42.8800| -3.3| 18.0| -3.6
Enbridge | -15.2800| -1.6| -33.6| 2.8
TC Energy | -13.2600| -2.6| 180.7| 1.0
Brookfield Renewable Partners | 3.6760| 7.5| 147.6| 7.8
Barrick Mining | 7.7520| 2.4| 102.4| 24.7
Cameco | 27.0500| 10.7| 129.3| 23.9
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell from record territory over the last hour of Monday’s trading session and ended the day back under the 26,400 level, likely on some profit taking and as Rosenberg Research noted both its equity and commodity models declined in May.
In the end the TSX — which posted three record closes last week, two of which were above 26,420 — was down today by 53.3 points at 26,375.84.
The index, buoyed by higher commodity prices today, was near 26,460 mid-afternoon and was still near 26,440 at 3pm ET, ahead of the 4pm ET close.
Most sectors were higher on Monday, with the Battery Metals Index up 1.8% and Base Metals up near 1.2%.
No sector was down by more than 1%.
Of commodities, gold edged higher mid-afternoon on Monday as the dollar eased with the start of trade talks between the United States and China.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $9.90 to US$3,356.50 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to the highest in a month amid hopes the two largest economies can end a trade war that has disrupted the global economy.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $0.71 to settle at US$65.29 per barrel, the highest since April 3, while August Brent crude was last seen up $0.36 to US$66.83.
Rosenberg Research on Monday published its latest ‘Strategizer’ note that looked at Canadian equities and at commodities, among other subject areas.
On equities, Rosenberg Research said after “correctly” turning more constructive on global equities in April, it is in May seeing a reduction in model scores across all geographies it tracks “as valuations become stretched, price action is overbought, and sentiment turns more bullish”.
But “this development is less pronounced in many ex. U.S. markets, with Asia still our model’s preference for risk adjusted returns,” it added.
Rosenberg Research noted its Canadian equity model experienced the largest reduction in scores — declining to 39.8 from 66.8, “flipping” from the highest reading since October 2023 to the lowest since October 2024 in the span of one month.
The research noted that, as with its other international models, the change for Canada does not represent a shift to “sell”/”underweight”. It remains a “hold” instead.
But, the research said, after a “whopping” +22% advance in the TSX to new record highs since Strategizer turned more constructive a year ago, the pace of future gains looks set to slow.
Relative attractiveness on valuations compared to the U.S. (68th percentile in Canada; 94th percentile in the U.S.), continues to make Strategizer more positive on Canadian equities, but the largest six week jump in technicals (“to very overbought status”) acts as a near-term drag on a contrarian basis, it added.
Rosenberg Research said its top sector picks in Canada reshuffled in May but continue to be broadly dominated by defensives/rate-sensitives.
Materials jumped to #1 (over half the sector is gold miners, which “remain grossly undervalued”), Industrials and Financials are tied for #2, followed by Health Care and Communication Services (both tied for #4).
On commodities, Rosenberg Research noted its commodity model declined in May — falling to 59.9 from 68.0, while remaining in the upper-half of a “neutral” range, where it has been for the better part of the past eight months.
It said: “There are few new developments to add to the commentary over this time, with our scores acknowledging the fragile demand backdrop in many commodities.
But with this pessimism seemingly appropriately discounted in light positioning and cheap valuation readings (both contrarian positive), the market backdrop looks susceptible to any “positive surprises” — near-term volatility notwithstanding.”
According to the research, there has been a shift in individual commodity rankings, with energy-related components now dominating the top group (RBOB gasoline #1, heating oil #4, WTI crude #5). Cocoa (#2) and Wheat (#3) round out the top rankings.
For gold specifically, the Rosenberg Research model improved to 30.4 in May from 26.3.
It noted that after flagging the risk of a potential pause and reversal in the near-term gold trade for the last few months, despite a bullish long-term outlook, the yellow metal experienced a -7.5% peak to trough pullback on easing trade tensions.
The research said an improvement in sentiment (65th percentile down to 50th; contrarian positive) drove the increase, though technical and positioning readings remain elevated, and added a dollar reversal would be negative for gold, too.
“Near-term consolidation/reversal risks have dissipated, but not enough to drive a higher model reading.
We remain buyers on any dips however, given the strong secular outlook.”
In the big economic news of the day, Prime Minister Mark Carney said in Toronto Monday morning that Canada will finally meet its NATO defense spending commitment this year as it moves to make itself less dependent on the United States for security help.
Carney said Canada will lift its military spending to hit the NATO target of two per cent of national GDP by directing an additional $9 billion this year, taking the defence budget to near $63 billion annually.
“Canada will achieve NATO’s two per cent target this year, half a decade ahead of schedule,” the prime minister said.
He also plans to quicken the pace on spending again within the next few years. Price: 26375.80, Change: -53.33, Percent Change: -0.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders glued to their screens amid commercial talks between the US and China drove stocks mildly higher, with officials hinting at progress in negotiations that are set to resume Tuesday.
Bonds bounced after Friday’s selloff as inflation expectations eased.
The dollar fell.
The S&P 500 eked out a gain, remaining nearly 2% away from its February peak.
Tesla Inc. jumped about 4.5% as President Donald Trump reiterated the desire to end his spat with Elon Musk, saying he’d retain Starlink internet service at the White House and wished his billionaire backer “very well.”
Apple Inc. slipped over 1% as it didn’t feature any noticeable artificial- intelligence advancements during a developers’ conference.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions between Washington and Beijing were “fruitful” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited a “good meeting.”
“We are doing well with China.
China’s not easy,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. “I’m only getting good reports.”
Trade talks between the US and China will continue into a second day, according to a US official, as the two sides look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements.
The advisers will meet again Tuesday at 10 a.m. in London, the official said.
“Markets have moved higher on tariff postponement and the perception that they will be more moderate than initially announced,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners.
“We expect markets to remain headline-sensitive, as trade deals take time to negotiate and unsettling tariff news is likely to cause noticeable volatility.”
“While conditions aren’t as bad as feared, this isn’t a moment for complacency,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“We’re within 2% of an all-time high, but absent a clear catalyst, a breakout doesn’t feel imminent this week.”
Wall Street strategists are growing optimistic about US stocks, with forecasters at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. suggesting resilient economic growth would limit any pullback over the summer.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said a sharp improvement in Corporate America’s earnings outlook bodes well for the S&P 500 into the year end.
He reiterated his 12-month price target of 6,500 points.
The gauge closed at 6,005.88 Monday.
A slate of strategists including at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 in recent days, on bets that the worst shock from the trade war was over.
At Goldman Sachs, David Kostin said recent market action suggests investors are pricing an optimistic growth outlook.
“The potential for market swings continues,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“But in our view, this should not impede investors putting cash to work, especially given our continued expectation for US equity gains over 12 months and that both interest rates and cash returns are set to fall as the year progresses.”
The S&P 500 has round-tripped from selloff to full recovery in under two months, marking the shortest “vol shock” on record, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
“Fear, capitulation and offsides positioning have driven the 20% plus rebound in the S&P 500,” said Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“While markets are anticipatory, the current rally still seems to be struggling with a credible narrative.”
With a key inflation read on tap Wednesday as the Federal Reserve enters a blackout period before its June 18 interest- rate decision, money managers are wrestling with what could propel the S&P 500 back to a record after the index soared 20% from its April lows.
Closing above the February record would mark the 25^th correction — decline of 10% to 19.9% — since World War II, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA.
Using history as a guide, the S&P 500 rose an average of 10% over a 127 calendar-day period following the conclusion of all 24 prior corrections since WWII, he said.
“A continued easing of inflation readings and still- favorable employment data should help extend the duration and magnitude of this advance,” Stovall said.
The S&P 500 equity risk premium — the spread between the earnings yield on stocks and the yield on the 10-year Treasury — is negative, below its long-term average, and likely still too low to support an expectation for strong forward returns, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
Despite popular notions, a negative or low risk premium isn’t necessarily a predictor of poor forward returns, they said.
It was negative for two long stretches in the post-WWII era — from October 1968 to October 1973 and from September 1980 to June 2002.
During the first stretch, stocks gained 1.1% annually, but they surged an annualized 10% in the latter.
The 1980-2002 run coincided with a negative 52-week correlation between stock prices and bond yields, suggesting inflation trends may be key to the efficacy of the indicator, according to BI.
However, that relationship flipped back to positive in April.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. unveiled a new operating system interface called Liquid Glass at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference, an event that focused heavily on aesthetics and design elements rather than software breakthroughs.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. is splitting itself in half, unshackling its fast-growing streaming business from the struggling legacy media channels and setting up two independent companies that could pursue deals on their own.
* Qualcomm Inc. has agreed to buy London-listed semiconductor company Alpha wave IP Group Plc for about $2.4 billion in cash to expand its technology for artificial intelligence.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to make a multibillion-dollar investment into artificial intelligence startup Scale AI, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Sunnova Energy International Inc., one of the largest US rooftop solar companies, filed for bankruptcy following struggles with mounting debt and diminishing sales prospects.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1425
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3557
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $108,675.97
* Ether rose 2% to $2,583
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $65.31 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,327.60 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming. -David Bowie, 1947-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com