May 8th,2025,Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
The Helston Furry Dance or “Flora Dance” takes place today in Helston, Cornwall, England.  It is one of the oldest traditional British customs still practiced today.   Origins: Likely pre-Christian in origin, the dance is a celebration of spring and fertility, welcoming the return of warmer weather and the rebirth of nature. The word “furry” is believed to come from the Cornish word fer, meaning “fair” or “feast.
There are four dances throughout the day, the most famous being the Midday Dance featuring local dignitaries in formal dress — men in morning suits and women in long gowns and hats.
Participants perform a stately, looping dance through the town’s streets, homes, shops, and gardens, accompanied by the traditional Flora Dance tune played by a brass band.  The town is festooned with flowers and greenery, especially lily of the valley, which is also worn by dancers.

May 8, 1886: Coca-Cola is invented by Dr. John S. Pemberton in Atlanta Georgia, originally marketed as a medicinal tonic before becoming one of the most recognized beverages in the world. Go to article.
May 8, 1945: Victory Day, VE Day in Europe.

Metal detectorists unearth dazzling Anglo-Saxon gold-and-garnet raven head and ring: ‘It’s unbelievable — I’m a bit emotional’
Metal detectorists in southwest England unearthed the two gold-and-garnet objects from the Anglo-Saxon period in January. Read More.

NASA Mars satellite uncovers markings ‘like paint dripping down a wall’ on Martian surface
Wave-like soil patterns on the Martian surface match those found in Earth’s cold, mountain regions, which could help scientists better understand the Red Planet’s climate history and
search for signs of life. Read More.

NASA just sent a giant balloon around the world in 16 days. Here’s why.
NASA’s massive super-pressure balloon has completed a 16-day trip around the Southern Hemisphere — a milestone in high-altitude flight and atmospheric research. Read More.

World’s first silicon-based quantum computer is small enough to plug into a regular power socket
An Irish startup has created the world’s first silicon-based quantum computer — it can still integrate seamlessly with classical computing in data centers. Read More.

Globes expand award categories
The Golden Globes are adding a new category for 2026: best podcast of the year. Only the “top 25 podcasts” will qualify for the award. “As the world of entertainment continues to evolve, we are excited to recognize new forms of storytelling,” Golden Globes president Helen Hoehne said.

Regal portrait unveiled in London
In a tradition dating back more than 400 years, the official coronation portrait of Britain’s King Charles was made public this week. Created by English figurative painter Peter Kuhfeld, the king’s portrait will join one of his wife, Queen Camilla, at the National Gallery for one month. It will then be moved to Buckingham Palace.

Like father, like son
The eldest son of soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo has earned his first call-up for the Portugal Under-15 national squad. The 14-year-old Ronaldo Jr. has also taken to mimicking his dad’s famous “Siu” goal celebration, a practice that has gone viral on social media.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bristol, UK
‘A peacock butterfly feeding on the blossom on the damson tree in our garden, on the day that British summer time started.’
Photograph: Steven Edgar

Kyoto, Japan
‘Visitors enjoy the plum blossom at Kitano Tenmangū. The shrine grounds are home to a large number of ume (plum) trees, and are one of the most famous spots for ume-mi (plum-viewing).’
Photograph: Hugo Anaya

La Paz, Bolivia
‘Two local cholitas deep in conversation and walking in sync. I loved their vibrant colours against the beige stone behind.’
Photograph: Louise Milne
Market Closes for May 8^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
When your outgo exceeds your income, your upkeep becomes your downfall. –Rick Rule, b. 1953.
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a second-straight gain on Thursday as Scotiabank started to look at the impact of temporary versus permanent tariffs and BMO Capital Markets cited “high-quality Canadian companies that have exhibited decelerating breadth of positive revisions over the past several months.”
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed was up 93.88 points at 25,254.06, adding to the 180-plus points gained Wednesday.
Among sectors, the biggest gainers were Energy, up 2.8% and Base Metals, up 1.8%.
With officials from the United States set to meet their counterparts from China over the weekend to start talks on a possible trade deal between them, and with the U.S. today getting the ball rolling with the outline of a deal between it and the United Kingdom, investors are already looking towards an end to the brewing trade war between Canada and the United States. too.
Scotiabank presented an alternative scenario where tariffs are removed September 2025, generating significantly less economic damage and fewer job losses than the bank had seen as its April baseline.
By 2026, GDP is up to one percentage point higher in both countries compared to a permanent tariffs scenario, while the unemployment rate is around one percentage lower, Scotia said.
“The implications for monetary policy differ between the two countries, reflecting how each economy absorbs the trade shock, it added.
In the United States, Scotia sees a large increase in import duties functioning as a supply shock, raising inflation substantially and damaging growth.
“This limits the Federal Reserve’s ability to react, leading to a higher policy rate relative to a no-tariff scenario.
Quick removal of tariffs would allow inflation to reverse on its own, creating more room for monetary policy to ease.
In this case, the policy rate would be lower than in a permanent tariffs scenario but still above the no-tariff scenario.”
In Canada, Scotia sees the tariffs “shock” primarily acting through demand-side channels, allowing the Bank of Canada more flexibility to respond.
“Under permanent or temporary tariffs, monetary policy is looser than in a no-tariff scenario, with temporary tariffs requiring less easing than permanent ones.”
Meanwhile, some investors are again looking at their Canadian investment strategies, given trade tensions and the corresponding threat of a global recession are seemingly easing, at least for now.
Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, noted he and his team recently adjusted their 2025 EPS target for the TSX down 3%, from $1,600 to $1,550, “reflecting what the bank believes is a minor ‘tweak’ when considering all the emotion, rhetoric, and frankly, unsubstantiated ‘noise’ that has bullied many analysts, companies, and macro-observers to ‘react’ in a much more decidedly negative tone.”
Nonetheless, Belski said, while the actual quantifiable impact of tariffs and U.S. growth remains unknown, TSX earnings estimates will likely remain under pressure over the near term.
“In fact,” he added, “forward earnings revision trends, which had been stagnant throughout the year as analysts assessed the trade risks, have started to decidedly swing negative since the end of March.”
From BMO’s perspective, Canadian stocks are “exhibiting a well-anticipated negative revision cycle, one we believe has already been fully priced in and may ultimately be short-lived (e.g., regressive)”.
As such, the team at BMO believe investors should not be reactionary to negative guidance and instead use the downward revision cycle for what it truly represents, a historically tested and proven contrarian indicator.
“Overall,” Belski said, “we continue to believe investors should remain focused on high-quality Canadian companies, while also overlaying a contrarian revision tilt.
As such, we have included a screen of high-quality Canadian companies that have exhibited decelerating breadth of positive revisions over the past several months.”
Belski’s “Canadian Quality Screen” included ATCO (ACO-X.TO), Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO), Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO), Cogeco Communications CCA.TO), CCL Industries (CCL-B.TO), Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO), Dollarama (DOL.TO), Enghouse Systems (ENGH.TO) and CGI (GIB-A.TO).
It also included Great-West Lifeco (GWO.TO), iA Financial (IAG.TO), Intact Financial (IFC.TO) and IGM Financial (IGM.TO).
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a gain on Thursday amid hopes around a cooling of trade tensions as the United States readies for tariff talks with China, while reports said the Trump Administration has reached a framework for trade deal with the United Kingdom.
WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up $1.84 to settle at US$59.91 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen up $1.67 to US$62.79.
But gold traded lower for a second day late afternoon on Thursday as planned weekend talks between the U.S. and China seemed to calm trade tensions and ease safe-haven demand, while the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a day-prior decision, pushing the dollar and yields sharply higher.
Gold for June delivery was last seen down $80.80 to US$3,311.10 per ounce.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.4%, or 92.88 to 25,254.06 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since April 2.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
OceanaGold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 12.6%.
Today, 132 of 218 shares rose, while 84 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.9%
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.3% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.4% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 17.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 12% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.07t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 30.23% compared with 30.21% in the previous session and the average of 30.44% over the past month
Financials | 58.1527| 0.7| 17/8
Industrials | 34.6023| 1.1| 21/7
Energy | 24.5602| 0.6| 29/11
Information Technology | 23.3805| 1.0| 9/1
Communication Services | 11.2164| 2.0| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 8.0341| 1.0| 9/1
Real Estate | 0.9189| 0.2| 7/12
Health Care | 0.5604| 0.9| 3/1
Utilities | -1.4753| -0.1| 10/5
Consumer Staples | -21.9689| -2.1| 4/6
Materials | -45.0914| -1.3| 18/32
Brookfield Corp | 29.7800| 3.8| 17.6| -3.0
Canadian Natural
Resources | 29.4900| 5.0| 47.8| -5.8
Constellation
Software | 18.2400| 2.6| 40.9| 16.6
Agnico Eagle Mines
Ltd | -9.7380| -1.7| -24.9| 41.9
Enbridge | -14.5200| -1.5| 90.3| 4.6
TC Energy | -16.9800| -3.3| -12.3| 2.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s risk-on mood prevailed on Thursday, with stocks up and bonds down as Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the UK while noting that if China talks go well, tariffs could be lowered.
Equities also gained after the president said investors should buy shares now.
For a market hoping for an easing of tensions between the US and its top commercial partners, that was enough to fuel a rally in S&P 500 – with the gauge briefly topping its April 2 high before the advance subsided.
While most major industries rose, gains were led by economically sensitive sectors.
Bitcoin surpassed $100,000.
As the safety bid ebbed, gold and haven currencies fell.
Short-term Treasury yields surged as traders pared bets on rate cuts.
Trump pitched his trade framework with the UK as a historic achievement, and the first step in his revolutionary effort to overhaul the global economy.
As the US prepares for the start of talks with China — the biggest target of Trump’s tariff onslaught — the president said he believed negotiations could result in tangible progress.
“As we get the details of this trade deal today, and find out how much progress the US and China are making towards the most important trade deal this weekend, it should give investors some more clarity about how much of an impact the trade issue will have on the US and global economy going forward,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
Trump also said that promising trade news paired with Republican efforts to pass legislation extending and expanding his signature tax cuts should be reason for investor optimism.
“This country will hit a point that you better go out and buy stock,” he said.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 gained 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6%.
The Russell 2000 climbed 1.8%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 4.37%.
A soft $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds also weighed on the market.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%.
“Tariffs are steering the boat again,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“We are seeing a risk-on sentiment.
The fear of missing out on favorable agreements being reached has limited the number of sellers.”
Trade indeed remains the primary story, says Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
And markets will likely take their cues from how upcoming negotiations unfold, he added.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet in Switzerland with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on trade in the coming days.
Trump said that if talks went well, he could consider lowering the 145% tariff he has imposed on many Chinese goods.
“It could be,” Trump said in response to a question about the possibility.
“I mean, we’re going to see. Right now, you can’t get any higher.
It’s at 145% so we know it’s coming down.
I think we’re going to have a very good relationship.”
Icebreaker or Breakthrough?
While the real game-changer would be progress with China, that’s where it gets murky, according Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The weekend meeting between the US and China feels more like a diplomatic icebreaker than a breakthrough moment,” Razaqzada noted.
“We could be in for a long, drawn-out negotiation season, which may limit the upside potential for risk assets.”
While we may be incrementally moving toward de-escalation of the global trade war, there is still plenty of uncertainty remaining, not least given the extensive list of countries that still need to obtain individual deals, noted Martin Frandsen at Principal Asset Management.
“Markets will likely need further evidence that the peak uncertainty is tailing before we see a recovery in consumer and business confidence,” he said.
Wild swings have lashed US assets as Trump’s fast-evolving tariff war put the S&P 500 on the brink of a bear market just a month ago — with a plunge of almost 20% from its February record through April 8.
Since then, the gauge rallied almost 14%.
The gauge’s median performance following one-month rallies of over 10%, as well as those that occurred after declines of that same magnitude in the prior month, has been better than the average for all periods since 1953, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s silicon design group is working on new chips that will serve as the brains for future devices, including its first smart glasses, more powerful Macs and artificial intelligence servers.
* British Airways parent IAG SA is poised to order about 30 Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliner aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter, as the US plane maker snags an early win under President Donald Trump’s new trade deal with the UK.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., the parent of HBO and CNN, rose in New York trading on speculation it may split off its cable TV networks into a separate company, overshadowing financial results that missed estimates.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. reported a 13% decline in revenue last quarter, marking the third straight year-over-year decline in sales.
* Arm Holdings Plc gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current quarter, stoking concerns about a tariff-fueled slowdown for the chip industry.
* Shopify Inc. projected slowing profit growth in the current quarter, with executives pledging to keep spending to boost sales growth.
* Coinbase Global Inc. agreed to acquire Deribit, the world’s largest exchange for Bitcoin and Ether options, for $2.9 billion as the biggest US crypto exchange makes a push into the derivatives market.
* Krispy Kreme Inc. said it will no longer pay quarterly cash dividends in order to pay down its debt and focus on growth.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1226
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3242
* The Japanese yen fell 1.5% to 145.93 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.7% to $101,323.45
* Ether rose 18% to $2,117.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.4% to $60.02 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,308.29 an ounce

–With assistance from Sujata Rao and John Viljoen.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
A person who knows little likes to talk, and one who knows much mostly keeps silent.  This is because a person who knows little thinks that everything he knows is important, and wants to tell everyone.  A person who knows much also knows that there is much more he doesn’t know.  That’s why he speaks only when it is necessary to speak, and when he is not asked questions, he keeps his silence. –Jean-Jacques Rousseau, 1712-1778.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com