March 14, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Full moon tonight.
Remember, tomorrow is the Ides of March.

March 14, 1743: First Town Meeting, Fanueil Hall, Boston.
March 14, 1794: American inventor Eli Whitne receives a patent for the cotton gin, transforming the cotton industry by dramatically increasing efficiency.
On March 14, 1900, Congress ratified the Gold Standard Act.  Go to article.

George Frederick Handel, composer, b. 1681.
Alber Einstein, physicist, b. 1879.
Diane Arbus, photographer, b.1923.

The clouds parted just in time last night to dazzle Seattle with a red-orange lunar eclipse. Enjoy the photos and mark your calendar for the celestial sights ahead. Plus, the bright fun isn’t over yet at the Space Needle, which will host a laser light show tonight. Its organizers want you to think about beauty, then take action. If you can’t go, you can watch online.  -Seattle Times.

Dwyane Wade opens up about kidney cancer diagnosis
The three-time NBA champion said that he hopes sharing his story will help others to take initiative when it comes to their own health.

Tourist filmed with baby wombat flees Australia
An American tourist who was reportedly filmed running off with a wild baby wombat while its distressed mother chased after her has fled Australia after officials threatened to cancel her visa.

The world’s greatest places of 2025, according to TIME
Everything from resorts to cruises to museums, restaurants and national parks are featured. See if your dream spot made the list.

The comeback of the humpbacks 
Commercial whaling nearly wiped out the world’s humpback whale population a century ago. Today, these majestic creatures are rebounding. Photographer Chris Fallows catches some playful humpbacks in action off South Africa’s coast.

128 new moons discovered orbiting Saturn, nearly doubling the ringed planet’s total
Faint signatures detected by the Canada France Hawaii Telescope have revealed 128 new moons around Saturn, making it the indisputable frontrunner for having the most moons in our
solar system. Read More.

Epigenetic ‘scars’ on the genome can be passed down by grandmothers, study finds
In a story of collaboration and community, researchers identified intergenerational epigenetic changes caused by war and trauma in Syrian refugees. Read More.

Pi Day quiz: How much do you know about this irrational number?
Test yourself on math’s most famous constant with this pi quiz. Read More.

China achieves quantum supremacy claim with new chip 1 quadrillion times faster than the most powerful supercomputers
This new superconducting prototype quantum processor achieved benchmarking results to rival Google’s new Willow QPU. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Flamingos feed in the Gediz delta, in İzmir, Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

A white-tailed eagle, also known as a sea eagle, perches on an iceberg floating off Nuuk, western Greenland
Photograph: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Tokyo, Japan
A visitor inspects ookanzakura cherry blossom almost in full bloom at Ueno Park
Photograph: Issei Kato/Reuters
Market Closes for March 14^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
I never won a fight in the ring; I always won in preparation. –Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.4% at 24,553.40 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.6% on Aug. 8 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.9%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.3%.
NFI Group Inc. had the largest increase, rising 20.8%.
Today, 174 of 220 shares rose, while 42 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain once
* This quarter, the index fell 0.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.8%
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.1% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 14.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.9t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.80% compared with 14.22% in the previous session and the average of 12.52% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 142.3847| 1.9| 24/0
Information Technology | 73.7697| 3.2| 10/0
Industrials | 53.8703| 1.8| 27/0
Energy | 41.8602| 1.0| 36/7
Materials | 33.4846| 1.0| 34/14
Consumer Discretionary | 6.8433| 0.9| 8/3
Real Estate | 4.7127| 1.0| 15/4
Consumer Staples | 2.9705| 0.3| 7/3
Health Care | 0.6932| 1.0| 3/1
Utilities | 0.4835| 0.1| 8/7
Communication Services | -10.9047| -1.8| 2/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 47.7000| 4.3| -27.7| -10.9
RBC | 29.2700| 1.9| -30.4| -7.7
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 19.7000| 2.9| -23.1| 3.9
Emera | -0.7600| -0.6| -61.2| 10.1
Telus | -1.4640| -0.7| -26.9| 10.5
Couche-Tard | -2.0710| -0.6| 33.4| -15.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A bounce in stocks calmed nerves among equity investors, but the fallout from Donald Trump’s political maneuvering continued to shake global markets and rattle US consumers.
Yields on German bonds surged as government leaders agreed on a massive defense spending package, while the ultimate haven asset — gold — topped $3,000 for the first time.
The 2.1% advance in the S&P 500 was the biggest since the aftermath of the November presidential election.
Not even data showing a slide in consumer confidence prevented the market rebound, which followed a selloff that culminated in a 10% plunge of the US equity benchmark from its peak.
Treasuries trimmed a recent rally fueled by a flight to safety. Bullion climbed as much as 0.5% to $3,004.94 an ounce before erasing gains.
The moves capped a week of drama that included Trump’s on-and-off-again tariffs, recession calls, geopolitical talks and concerns over a US government shutdown.
Combined with all the questioning around lofty tech valuations, global equity funds saw their biggest redemption this year while sentiment indicators turned bearish – which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.
“Scared-cat bounce?” said Ed Yardeni, founder of his namesake research firm. “Any day without a Trump tariff comment is a good day for the market. We will be more inclined to call a bottom when we see the stock market move higher on a day or days when Trump blusters about tariffs again.”
Despite Friday’s advance, the S&P 500 still saw a fourth straight week of losses — the longest such streak since August.
Tech mega caps led gains on Friday, with Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. up at least 3.8%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 2.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.7%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.31%.
A dollar gauge fell 0.2%.
“We are seeing some oversold rally efforts once again,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“But we caution folks looking to dive back in at the first sign of stability here: nearly everyone is looking for a bottom and to ‘buy the dip’ at some point, but the current condition of the markets has not implied any real improvement on a technical basis – the tape is simply very oversold at this stage.”
Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities says he gets asked multiple times a day: “Is the worst over?”
“We don’t know. We would like to see a capitulation trade, but the seasonals are starting to turn,” Brenner said.
“The end of February to the middle of March is an awful time for equity seasonals.”
Stocks rebounded on Friday after a selloff that shed $5 trillion from the S&P 500’s value.
It took just 16 trading sessions for US stocks to tumble into a correction, leaving a frazzled Wall Street asking just how long the “adjustment period” White House officials have warned about will last.
In the prior 24 instances when stocks have fallen at least 10% from a record but avoided a bear market, it has taken an average of eight months to reclaim an all-time high, according to data from CFRA Research.
That would leave the Feb. 19 high intact until mid-October.
The average drawdown reached 14% in those cases.
“Corrections are unnerving in the moment, though they are not unusual, and often act as a pressure release valve for overheated markets,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“This will not be the last correction, pullback, or market scare that the bulls will have to face, and yes, an element of caution is warranted.”
“We say this is a correction, not a bear market in US stocks,” Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett said.
“Since equity bear threatens recession, fresh declines in stock prices will provoke flip in trade and monetary policy.”
Yet a century-old indicator that has helped predict the direction of the US stock market is signaling more pain ahead for battered investors.
Known as the Dow Theory, it holds that moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be confirmed by transport stocks, and vice versa, to be sustained.
As of Thursday’s close, the 20-member Dow Jones Transportation Average — a barometer of consumer and industrial demand — has slumped 19% from its November peak, teetering near so-called bear-market territory.
“What usually differentiates quicker (often healthy) selloffs from drawn-out bear markets is whether a recession follows,” said Ross Mayfield at Baird Private Wealth Management.
The 23 non-recession corrections since 1965 averaged a 16% drawdown, he said.
Meantime, the 8 recession selloffs over that period averaged a 36% drawdown.
“The good news is that despite headwinds, a near-term recession still looks unlikely,” he noted.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0883
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2935
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 148.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.2% to $84,522.26
* Ether rose 5% to $1,934.54
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.31%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.88%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $67.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,984.06 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova, Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian and John Viljoen.
Have  wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Determine never to be idle.  No person will have occasion to complain of the want of time who never loses any.
It is wonderful how much may be done if we are always doing. –Thomas Jefferson, 1743-1826.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com