February 13, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

February 13^th, 1741: First magazine published in the US.
February 13^th, 1895: The Lumière brothers receive a French patent for the Cinématographe, a device that functions as a film camera, projector, and printer, revolutionizing the motion picture industry.
February 13^th, 1949: Dresden Fire bombing.
February 13^th, 1960 France exploded its first atomic bomb. Go to article.

Peter Gabriel, musician, b. 1950

Rock & Roll Hall of Fame 2025 nominees announced
A pop diva. A rock duo. A jam band. Here are the nominees for this year’s Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

From rooftops to islands, Hong Kong has basketball courts everywhere
Hong Kong has thousands of outdoor basketball courts — some in the most peculiar locations. This photographer wants to capture them all.

New Zealand is home to the ‘world’s clearest lake.’
Tourists are even being told to wipe their shoes before visiting it.

Carmakers Nissan and Honda call off merger talks
Japan’s Nissan and Honda have put the brakes on merger talks that would have created the world’s third-largest carmaker.

2,500-year-old painted tomb with ‘unique scene of smithy’ discovered at Etruscan necropolis in Italy
Archaeologists in Italy have discovered a 2,500-year-old Etruscan tomb that is richly decorated with wall paintings. Read More.

Parisian photographer produces phenomenal, perfectly-proportioned ‘planetary parade’ portrait
A French astrophotographer recently snapped shots of the moon, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune in a single evening, and rearranged them to create a striking composite image. Each “planetary parade” member was captured with the same magnification, meaning they are perfectly scaled. Read More.

A strange triangle will appear in the zodiac this month. How to see rare ‘zodiacal light,’ before it disappears.
A ‘false dusk’ will be visible during twilight in February, but only from locations that are free of light pollution. Here’s everything you need to know about zodiacal light. Read More.

Physicists discover ‘ghost particle’ 100 times more energetic than ever seen before
Physicists have detected the highest-energy neutrino ever felt on Earth. The neutrino, detected at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, has nearly 100 times more energy than any ghost particle previously detected. Read More.

Watch robot dog and drone locked in fierce battle — blasting fireworks at each other in future warfare demo
A viral video captured in an unknown location and widely shared on social media in China shows a robotic dog and a drone firing fireworks at each other. Read More.

From the Late Night Shows:
“President Trump spoke today with Russian president Vladimir Putin on the phone. And, bad news, you guys, we gotta change the name of the gulf again.” — SETH MEYERS.

“In a post on Truth Social today, President Trump said that he spoke with Russian president Vladimir Putin and discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, the power of the dollar, Moo Deng, Sydney Sweeney, the return of the Shamrock Shake and this season of ‘The Traitors.’ ‘[imitating Trump] We got off track towards the end of the call. We got a little off track.’” — SETH MEYERS.

“President Trump said that he had a nice phone call with Vladimir Putin. Putin was like, ‘[imitating Putin] I told you I wouldn’t forget Valentine’s Day.’” — JIMMY FALLON

“The only awkward part of the call was when Putin said, ‘Is the president there?’ and both Trump and Elon said, ‘Yes?’” — JIMMY FALLON
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Antofagasta de la Sierra, Argentina
‘I took this on my trip along the La Puna region. You can see the road track from El Peñón leading to the ‘pumice stone field’.
Photograph: Alejandro Sala

London, UK
‘Visitors to the Canary Wharf winter lights festival make silhouettes as they take a break.’
Photograph: Colin Page

​​​​​​​Kerala, India
‘Dusk at a beach in Kovalam.’
Photograph: Kalyani Madhura Ramachandran
Market Closes for February 13, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

MARKET COMMENTARY:
Predicting rain doesn’t count.  Building arks does. –Warren Buffett.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 25,698.51 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Jan. 30 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.2%.
Ero Copper Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.7%.
Today, 129 of 221 shares rose, while 87 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.6% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 4.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.68% compared with 10.76% in the previous session and the average of 11.19% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 91.1007| 3.3| 7/3
Communication Services | 11.5706| 2.0| 5/0
Materials | 10.3001| 0.3| 29/17
Energy | 9.0178| 0.2| 21/21
Consumer Staples | 7.2774| 0.8| 6/4
Real Estate | 4.8942| 1.0| 18/2
Utilities | 2.4252| 0.3| 8/7
Consumer Discretionary | 1.2136| 0.1| 7/4
Health Care | 0.5411| 0.8| 2/2
Financials | -1.1106| 0.0| 13/12
Industrials | -1.8108| -0.1| 13/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 75.9400| 5.2| 29.4| 18.3
Brookfield Corp | 19.6900| 2.3| -15.4| 3.6
Constellation Software | 11.6700| 1.7| -15.1| 11.6
TD Bank | -5.8780| -0.6| -51.0| 11.2
Kinross Gold | -10.1600| -6.8| 78.6| 21.4
Sun Life Financial | -24.9300| -7.3| 250.1| -8.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks came within a striking distance of their all-time highs while the dollar got hit as President Donald Trump moved to impose reciprocal tariffs — but not right away.
All major groups in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge up 1%.
The greenback dropped against all of its developed-market counterparts.
Treasuries rebounded from their worst slide since December.
Big tech outperformed as Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. each rallied over 3%.
Apple Inc. gained 2% as chief Tim Cook said the “newest member of the family” is coming on Feb. 19.
Meta Platforms Inc. advanced for a 19th straight day.
While Trump signed a measure directing the US Trade Representative and Commerce secretary to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis, the process could a while to complete.
Howard Lutnick, his nominee to lead the Commerce Department, said all studies should be complete by April 1 and that Trump could act immediately afterward.
The decision not to implement tariffs right away could be seen as an opening bid for negotiation — following the same strategy Trump already used to extract concessions from Mexico and Canada — rather than a sign he’s committed to following through.
“President Trump is seeking to level the global playing field by implementing reciprocal tariffs against nations that maintain levies on the US,” Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers said earlier this week.
“But investors are starting to realize that much of the talk is hardly going to come to fruition with the rhetoric increasingly appearing to be a negotiation tactic.”
To Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, Trump has left open the opportunity for the US’s major trade partners to come to the negotiating table with a counteroffer.
But, there are enough moving parts to this process that it is challenging to have a precise take on how the final tariff structure will develop.
“We’re cautious against rushing too quickly to the conclusion that the market is in a position to move beyond the trade war saga for the time being,” Lyngen said.
Wall Street traders also looked past hot inflation data amid signs the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge will be softer than expected.
The producer price index rose in January by more than forecast.
However, several of its components that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the personal consumption expenditures price index — were more favorable last month, registering declines in most health-care items and in airfares.
The next PCE will be released on Feb. 28.
“While PPI was much higher than expected, with even higher revisions, the real data that goes into PCE was weaker,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“And PCE is the one that Jerome Powell and the Fed look at. So in reality, the numbers are better.”
The S&P 500 topped 6,100.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%.
The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index climbed 1.8%.
The Russell 2000 gained 1.2%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell nine basis points to 4.53%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.7%.
The yen gained 1.1% on safe-have appeal, while the Canadian dollar touched a new high for the year.
Despite the greenback’s slide on Thursday, the long-term view on the dollar remains positive, according to the Bloomberg dollar index’s fear-greed gauge.
“With the number of rate cuts being pared back for this year and other central banks moving forward with cuts abroad, dollar strength may be here to stay,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
Using history as a guide, a rising greenback has favored domestic equities relative to international and emerging, Grabinski noted.
On the other hand, a weaker US dollar is more favorable for equities in general and historically has been the greatest tailwind for emerging markets.
“To the extent to which the dollar continues to strengthen, it will weigh on companies with high foreign sales exposure,” he said.
“The two sectors with the greatest foreign revenue exposure are technology and materials with 59% and 53% of revenues sourced from abroad, respectively.  On the opposite end of the spectrum is the utilities sector with less than 2% of revenue sourced from abroad.”
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner says a bearish trade is looming for US equities.
The market is increasingly crowded and dip-buying is running out of steam, Rubner said.
The managing director for global markets and tactical specialist was rightfully bullish heading into 2025, while touting an upcoming negative turn.
In a note on Wednesday, he said this was his “last bullish email” for the first quarter.
“Everyone is in the pool, including retail traders, 401k inflows, start of the year allocations, and corporates,” he said.
“The flow demand dynamics are quickly changing, and we are approaching negative seasonals.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s iPhones will use Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s AI technology, the Chinese firm’s chairman said, affirming reports the e-commerce pioneer had scored a coveted role in helping power the iPhone in the world’s top mobile arena.
* Cisco Systems Inc. gave an upbeat sales forecast for the current quarter, helped by companies spending more on computing infrastructure to take advantage of AI technology.
* Trade Desk Inc., a company that helps marketers place ads online, posted its first quarterly miss in eight years and issued a forecast that fell short of Wall Street estimates.
* Deere & Co., the world leader in farm machinery, anticipated another challenging year with grain and soy growers still not spending.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that more than doubled as the online trading firm was buoyed by crypto-market transactions around the US presidential election.
* Reddit Inc.’s fourth-quarter user growth missed Wall Street’s expectations, a sign the newly public company is struggling to keep up with larger digital advertising peers Meta Platforms Inc. and Google.
* Molson Coors Beverage Co. reported profit that beat expectations, with a lift from sales outside of the US.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0462
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.2560
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 152.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $96,306.46
* Ether fell 1.1% to $2,654.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.53%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,928.62 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Macarena Muñoz and Winnie Hsu.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The longer the explanation, the bigger the lie. – Chinese Proverb.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com