February 11, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
St. Bernadette of Lourdes, France.

February 11, 1979: Followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized power in Iran, nine days after the religious leader returned to his home country following 15 years of exile. Go to article.
February 11, 1990: Nelson Mandela released from prison.
February 11^th, 2020: The World Health Organization officially names the novel coronavirus disease “COVID-19,” standardizing the terminology for global health communication.

Thomas Edison, inventor, b. 1847.
Jennifer Aniston, actress, b. 1969.

MIT builds swarms of tiny robotic insect drones that can fly 100 times longer than previous designs
Scientists have built a new type of robotic insect that can fly 100 times longer than previous generations. Read More.

Mysterious tunnels sketched by Leonardo da Vinci in 1495 may finally have been discovered — hidden under a castle in Milan
Researchers may have found the hidden tunnels beneath a castle in Milan that Leonardo da Vinci sketched in 1495. Read More.

Scientists discover Earth’s inner core isn’t just slowing down — it’s also changing shape
The surface of Earth’s inner core appears to be dynamic, changing shape as it rotates, earthquake waves reveal. Read More.

Bahamas shark attack
Two American tourists were recently injured in an apparent shark attack while swimming in the Bahamas. Here’s what we know.

The Venice entry fee is back
It will cost 10 euros for day-trippers to visit the beloved Italian city of Venice on some days this summer. The fee is double from last year’s 5 euros to help curb overcrowding.

Mysterious portrait of a woman revealed beneath Picasso painting
Art historians studying a painting by Pablo Picasso have uncovered the mysterious portrait of a woman hidden beneath its surface.

Why are vintage cars stored in the middle of the desert?
One of the world’s strangest museums is located in the deserts of Qatar. See the vintage cars inside Sheikh Faisal Bin Qassim Al Thani Museum.

Africa’s first caviar is surprising the luxury food industry
Africa’s first sturgeon farm is selling caviar at over $10,000 per kilogram — and it’s made its way into some of the most prestigious kitchens in the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Hindus climb the 272 steps to the Batu Caves temple to make offerings during the Thaipusam festival
Photograph: Mohd Rasfan/AFP/Getty Images

Mount Etna, Italy
Lava flows from the Mount Etna volcano
Photograph: Marco Restivo/Etna Walk/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​New Delhi, India
A common silverline butterfly rests on a flower in New Delhi
Photograph: Harish Tyagi/EPA
Market Closes for February 11, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Experience is helpful, but it is judgement that matters. –General Colin Powell, 1937-2021.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 25,631.83 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.8%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
Ero Copper Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.3%.
Today, 144 of 221 shares fell, while 76 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.2% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.14t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.85% compared with 10.86% in the previous session and the average of 11.23% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -57.8535| -1.8| 4/45
Financials | -19.8424| -0.2| 9/16
Industrials | -5.3852| -0.2| 9/19
Real Estate | -4.9476| -1.0| 3/17
Consumer Staples | -3.5917| -0.4| 3/7
Utilities | -2.7801| -0.3| 4/11
Health Care | -0.5845| -0.9| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | 0.5209| 0.1| 7/4
Communication Services | 5.4373| 0.9| 4/1
Information Technology | 23.9106| 0.9| 2/8
Energy | 38.0992| 0.9| 30/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | -12.0500| -1.4| -38.7| 1.5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -11.5900| -2.3| -18.7| 24.9
Brookfield Asset Management | -7.6100| -3.5| 105.2| 2.0
TD Bank | 8.4490| 0.8| -26.5| 13.3
Suncor | 13.0300| 2.6| 104.0| 13.1
Shopify | 42.6400| 2.9| 110.4| 15.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields rose and stocks fluctuated as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank is in no rush to cut rates.
Bonds fell across the curve, with money markets continuing to fully price in just one rate cut by the Fed this year.
The S&P 500 remained stuck in a tight range.
Most big techs dropped, though Meta Platforms Inc. climbed for a 17th consecutive day.
Intel Corp. and GlobalFoundries Inc. surged as Vice President JD Vance said the US will make sure the most sophisticated artificial-intelligence hardware is made domestically.
Just a day ahead of a key inflation reading, Powell signaled that officials will be patient before lowering borrowing costs further as the economy remains strong.
He also told Congress it is unwise to speculate on tariff policy at this time.
Powell is due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the Fed is taking an “extended time-out on rates,” but remains oriented towards lowering borrowing costs further if and when there is further sustained inflation progress.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
With a high-low range sitting below 0.6% for two days in a row, the gauge was mired in a stretch of tight trading not seen since mid-December.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%.
“The stock market has been stuck in a sideways range,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“Despite the narrative on Wall Street, the market is not broadening out to the degree that some people are trying to portray. So, until we break out of this range, investors will want to remain nimble.”
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.54%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.3%.
US inflation showed scant signs of downward momentum at the start of the year, while healthy job growth undergirded the economy, backing the Fed’s stance to hold the line on interest rates for now.
Bureau of Labor Statistics figures due on Wednesday, shortly before the second half of Powell’s two-day testimony marathon, are forecast to show the consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in January for the fifth time in the last six months.
Compared with a year earlier, core CPI is forecast to have risen 3.1%.
While marginally lower than the annual figure for December, that’s just a 0.2 percentage point decline from the middle of last year.
“Recent inflation prints, coupled with a strong jobs market will allow patience from the Federal Reserve who will likely hold policy at its target range of 4.25%-4.50% in March,” said Josh Hirt at Vanguard.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 41% of respondents expect the market reaction to CPI to be “risk-off,” 31% said “risk-on” and 28% “mixed/negligible.”
In addition, 37% of investors surveyed by 22V believe that financial conditions need to tighten.
“This value has come down significantly since last month,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V.
“59% believe that core CPI is on a Fed friendly glide path without a significant tightening of financial conditions, and 4% think there will be a recession.”
“With the labor market remaining strong and inflation still slightly above the Fed’s target, it’s not surprising that traders are pushing out prospects of another interest rate cut from the Fed toward the middle of the year,” said Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
Weller bets the volatility around this week’s inflation reading may be more limited than in the past, as the Fed will, in all likelihood, still get another handful of inflation and jobs reports before making any additional changes to interest rates.
“That said, a pickup in price pressures could lead traders to start asking whether the Fed’s interest rate cutting cycle may be completed already, complicating the path forward for a central bank that has clearly been hinting that the easing cycle isn’t done yet,” he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. delivered more jets in a month than Airbus SE for the first time in almost two years as the plane maker begins to recover from a lengthy strike and years of turmoil.
* Coca-Cola Co.’s profit beat Wall Street expectations as shoppers paid higher prices for the company’s sodas, energy drinks and juices.
* Shopify Inc. reported quarterly revenue that exceeded expectations, suggesting its e-commerce software solutions stood out with merchants during the busy holiday quarter.
* Humana Inc. will cut membership in its Medicare Advantage plans, its biggest business, while spending to improve government quality ratings that have hurt revenue from the program.
* Travelers Cos. said it expects about $1.7 billion of pretax losses from the wildfires that devastated Los Angeles last month.
* DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s earnings jumped on growth in the electronics market, suggesting the conglomerate’s push to cut costs and break up into smaller, more focused businesses is paying off.
* S&P Global Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates as strong issuance of corporate debt bolstered the firm’s ratings business.
* WK Kellogg Co. posted fourth-quarter profit that topped Wall Street’s expectations, even as the cereal maker called out challenges weighing on sales.
* Marriott International Inc.’s guidance for net rooms growth in 2025 proved softer than some analysts expected.
* Elliott Investment Management disclosed a more than $2.5 billion stake in oil refiner Phillips 66 and plans to push the company to sell or spin off its pipeline business.

Key events this week:
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Services panel, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0362
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2444
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $95,268.2
* Ether fell 2.5% to $2,597.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.54%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $73.23 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,898.10 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Phil Kuntz, Martin Keohan, John Viljoen and Margaryta Kirakosian.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Suppose you were an idiot.  And suppose you were a member of Congress.  But I repeat myself. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com