January 2, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

January 2, 1818: Institution of Civil Engineers is founded in Britain.
January 2, 1842: First US wire suspension bridge for general traffic opens in Pennsylvania
January 2, 1929: US and Canada agree to preserve the Niagara Falls
January 2, 2008: Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel for the first time. Go to article

The 10 best stargazing events of 2025
The 2025 stargazing guide includes Venus at it brightest, a sunrise solar eclipse and three supermoons. Here are all the dates you need to know. Read more.

Quadrantid meteor shower: How to watch the first ‘shooting stars’ of 2025 rain over Earth tonight
The Quadrantids are the year’s first shooting stars, peaking over North America between Jan. 3 and 4. Read more.

‘Missing link’ black hole found? Not so fast, new study says
A “missing link” black hole in Omega Centauri is still missing. What appeared to be an intermediate-mass black hole was a cluster of stellar-mass black holes. Read more.

10 amazing things found on Mars in 2024, from hundreds of ‘spiders’ to a ‘Martian dog’
From arachnid-like formations and mysterious blobs to an underground ocean and a giant volcano, here are our 10 favorite things scientists discovered on Mars this year. Read more.

Full moons of 2025: Names, dates and everything you need to know
Find out exactly when to see the full moons of 2025, including dates for two total lunar eclipses and three supermoons. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Les Rousses, France
A skater looks at pancake ice on the frozen Lac des Rousses in eastern France. This phenomenon forms when slushy ice in water clumps into round, pancake-like shapes due to waves or currents
Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images

Dunfanaghy, Ireland
A surfer on Marble Hill beach on the north coast of Donegal. A yellow weather and ice warning has been issued across Ireland as temperatures are set to drop to -3C overnight
Photograph: David Young/PA

​​​​​​​Fireworks light the sky behind the Statue of Liberty in New York, US
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 2, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On Jan. 1, 1998 a global investing giant came into being, as Norges Bank Investment Management was set up to manage Norway’s oil wealth. As of mid-2024, the sovereign wealth fund oversaw some $1.667 trillion, or roughly $300,000 for each of Norway’s 5.5 million inhabitants.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.7%, or 170.09 to 24,898.03 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on Dec. 20.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 161 of 223 shares rose, while 60 fell.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.0%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 14.2%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.4%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 21.7% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and fell 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.9t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.72% compared with 10.52% in the previous session and the average of 9.07% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 93.4572| 3.3| 47/4
Energy | 71.2097| 1.7| 40/3
Information Technology | 18.3589| 0.7| 8/2
Industrials | 4.9922| 0.2| 13/14
Utilities | 1.9466| 0.2| 7/8
Communication Services | 1.8194| 0.3| 4/1
Health Care | 0.7696| 1.0| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | 0.7040| 0.1| 5/6
Real Estate | 0.4440| 0.1| 17/3
Consumer Staples | -1.9894| -0.2| 8/2
Financials | -21.6332| -0.3| 11/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 19.6700| 5.0| -14.7| 5.0
Shopify | 16.3100| 1.3| -39.7| 1.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 13.2700| 2.0| 0.8| 2.0
CIBC | -3.3730| -0.6| -21.0| -0.6
Couche-Tard | -3.6470| -0.8| -32.4| -0.8
RBC | -10.4000| -0.6| 33.1| -0.6
US
By Cristin Flanagan and Alexandra Semenova
(Bloomberg) — Major US benchmarks extended a selloff for a fifth day, shaving more than a trillion dollars from share prices.
A pair of deadly attacks compounded market angst, starting the first trading day of the year on a dour note.
An early rally collapsed driving the Nasdaq 100 down more than 1%.
The tech-heavy gauge and the S&P 500 clawed back losses to end Thursday down 0.2%.
Tesla Inc.’s post-Christmas slump swelled to nearly 20% after its annual vehicle sales dropped, dragging on the indexes.
Treasury yields steadied following a choppy session.
The rate on the benchmark 10-year was nearly 20 basis points above the level prior to Jerome Powell’s hawkish turn at a Dec. 18 Federal Reserve meeting.
Big moves have proliferated across asset classes after Powell’s board expressed waning enthusiasm for interest-rate cuts.
The Cboe Volatility Index climbed for the fourth time in five days.
Tesla sagged after the electronic vehicle-marker’s fourth-quarter deliveries missed estimates and annual sales dropped for the first time in over a decade.
The stock registered its worst five-day drop in more than two years.
For corporate earnings, 2025 will be a “show-me year,” according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who warned that the dominance of the Magnificent Seven — the big technology stocks responsible for the bulk of last year’s gains
— was teetering. “This idea that they as a group can trade together and lead the market may falter in 2025,” she said.
It’s a call echoed by others on Wall Street, including Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian.
As for the grim slide in the final days of 2024, it’s “too soon to call it a bad omen,” Shalett told Bloomberg Television.
While the notable absence of a Santa Rally has previously led to a rebound in stocks for the month of January, the year’s first trading day doesn’t offer a great signal for the whole 12-month period.
Over the past four years, for example, it has actually been a contrarian indicator, Deutsche Bank notes.
The S&P 500 ended the year inversely of how it started.
Extending that analysis back to 1928, the year’s first trading day and the SPX’s annual performance have a poor correlation and have only moved in tandem ~50% of the time.
Tatiana Darie, MLIV Strategist, New York Treasuries erased gains after a reading of weekly jobless claims fell to an eight-month low.
A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar’s strength traded at a more than two-year peak. 
Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius noted that “seasonal adjustment challenges can make jobless claims readings particularly volatile around the holiday season.”  
US stocks had been straining to snap a losing streak that took some shine off the S&P 500’s best two-year run dating back to the late 1990s.
The index has surged more than 50% since the start of 2023, driven by gains in the tech megacaps amid enthusiasm about the boost to profits from artificial intelligence.
An attack on revelers celebrating New Year’s in New Orleans thrust US domestic security back into the spotlight less than a month before Donald Trump is sworn in as president.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is probing that incident as well as the deadly explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outside of Trump’s hotel in Las Vegas.
A shooting overnight at a nightclub in New York City only added to the anxiety, while authorities said it wasn’t related to terrorism. 
CBOE’s gauge of Wall Street stock sentiment, the VIX, touched 19.
On Friday, investors will be watching the House speaker vote to see if Mike Johnson will retain his position.
GOP squabbling over his reelection could bode ill for the president-elect’s agenda, according  to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens report.
If Johnson’s confirmation takes several rounds of voting over several days, “that will be a bad sign for Republican unity and hopes for quick action on pro-growth policies will take a hit,” he wrote. 
In the months to come, the growth outlook in Europe and China, the Federal Reserve’s policy path and Trump’s ability to execute on his campaign promises will be among the most pressing items on traders’ radars.
European energy shares outperformed after a sharp increase in natural gas prices as the region braced for freezing winter temperatures without Russian supplies delivered via Ukraine.
A transit contract between the two warring nations expired on New Year’s Day, with no alternative in place.
The euro fell to the weakest against the dollar in over two years reflecting concerns about European growth, US trade tariffs and monetary policy divergence with the US.
Many strategists are forecasting a slide to parity with the dollar or even lower this year.
In Asia, sentiment was subdued, with Chinese equities the worst performers as data pointed to a slowing economy and traders looked ahead to potentially higher tariffs.
MSCI Inc.’s gauge of Asian shares fell for the third day out of the past four.
Financial markets in Japan remained closed.
Elsewhere in commodities, oil climbed after an industry report signaled US crude stockpiles continued to shrink.
A report from the American Petroleum Institute showed inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels last week, which would be a sixth straight drop.
Gold rose, trading around $2,657 an ounce.
Bitcoin extended its rally to a third day.

Key events this week:
* US ISM manufacturing, light vehicle sales, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 3.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0264
* The British pound fell 1.1% to $1.2380
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 157.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $97,242.95
* Ether rose 2.7% to $3,452.44
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.56%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.38%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $73.13 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.4% to $2,660.01 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson, Chiranjivi Chakraborty, Cecile Gutscher and John Viljoen.

Have a wonderful evening!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” In the midst of winter, I finally learned that there was in me an invincible summer.” — Albert Camus

Shab Mohammadpour

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com