December 19, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

December 19, 1783: William Pitt the Younger becomes the youngest ever British Prime Minister at age 24
December 19, 1958: First radio broadcast from space, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower sends a Christmas message “to all mankind, America’s wish for peace on Earth and goodwill to men everywhere”
December 19, 1984 (40 years ago today) Britain and China signed an accord returning Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. Go to article
December 19, 1988: NASA unveils plans for lunar colony & manned missions to Mars.

NASA commander Suni Williams meets tentacled Astrobee robot on ISS
The robot’s flexible arms are a technology demonstration that could one day aid in satellite maintenance and space debris management.

Rare army general and chariot unearthed among China’s Terracotta Warriors
The life-size clay figurines offer new insights into the organization and structure of China’s army 2,000 years ago.

‘Truly extraordinary’ ancient offerings, including statues of snakes and a child priest, found submerged in ‘healing’ spring in Italy
Archaeologists in Italy have dug down deeper into a hot spring that was used, over two millennia ago, by a people known as the Etruscans as a sacred place to leave their votive offerings. Read more.

‘Alien plant’ fossil discovered near Utah ghost town doesn’t belong to any known plant families, living or extinct
Fossilized plant remains discovered near a Utah ghost town have stumped scientists, who are unable to link them to any modern or extinct plants. Read more.

James Webb telescope uncovers massive ‘grand design’ spiral galaxy in the early universe — and scientists can’t explain how it got so big, so fast
Galaxies in the early universe tend to be clumpy, but the new JWST discovery of a “grand design” spiral galaxy just 1.5 billion years after the Big Bang has scientists stumped. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kent, UK
The Folkestone White Horse gets a makeover inspired by Rudolph the red-nosed reindeer
Photograph: Chris J Ratcliffe/Reuters

Hawaii, US
Canada’s Erin Brooks competes to win the women’s Vans 2024 Pipe Masters on Oahu’s north shore
Photograph: Brian Bielmann/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Harbin, China
Ice and Snow World prepares to open to tourists in Heilongjiang province
Photograph: Weitao Tian/Getty Images
Market Closes for December 19, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
🚂 On this day in 1868: Cornelius Vanderbilt bought additional shares of the New York Central Railroad. He then convened an emergency meeting of the board of directors, which declared an 80% dividend. The stock shot up over the next two days, at which point Vanderbilt dumped his new shares for a $5.5 million profit.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the sixth day, dropping 0.6%, or 143.06 to 24,413.94 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 5.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.7%.
Cargojet Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.5%.
Today, 149 of 219 shares fell, while 66 rose; all sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 16%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 1.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 3.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 22
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.5% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 19.3% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.9% in the past 5 days and fell 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.87t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.11% compared with 10.01% in the previous session and the average of 8.50% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -39.6081| -1.6| 3/7
Industrials | -37.0873| -1.2| 6/20
Materials | -24.1725| -0.9| 12/36
Financials | -11.9918| -0.1| 13/13
Energy | -8.7500| -0.2| 19/22
Communication Services | -7.8981| -1.3| 0/5
Real Estate | -7.1787| -1.5| 2/18
Consumer Discretionary | -4.0495| -0.5| 3/8
Consumer Staples | -1.3916| -0.1| 4/5
Health Care | -0.6460| -0.9| 1/3
Utilities | -0.2775| 0.0| 3/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -36.2400| -2.7| 13.0| 49.4
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -20.8000| -3.0| 10.8| -2.5
TD Bank | -7.3470| -0.8| -11.6| -13.3
CGI Inc | 3.4860| 1.6| 45.4| 10.6
Bank of Montreal | 4.0400| 0.6| -37.7| 6.1
Manulife Financial | 5.3610| 1.0| -12.3| 48.0
US
By Rheaa Rao and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended a choppy session with modest losses, struggling to rebound from the selloff they suffered after the Federal Reserve dialed back rate-cut expectations for next year.
The S&P 500 gave up earlier gains to end the day little changed.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.5% after oscillating between small advances and declines for most of the session.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.57%, a level last seen in May.
A Bloomberg dollar index continued to hover around 2022 highs.
The yen remained lower after the Bank of Japan left borrowing costs unchanged earlier.
Mexico’s peso shrugged off losses after the country’s central bank delivered a fourth consecutive rate cut.
The US economy remains resilient, as data on Thursday continued to prove.
Notably, one of the Fed’s preferred gauges of inflation was revised up to 2.2%.
Given that Chair Jerome Powell said future easing would require fresh progress on inflation, markets will now be closely watching the last noteworthy piece of data for the year — personal consumption expenditures for November — due Friday.
For now, investors are being defensive, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
“They’re not jumping back into the market with both feet,” he said. “So, if we don’t get some relief from the bond market soon, there might not be a Santa Claus rally this year.”
Markets were jolted after the Fed scaled back the number of cuts it anticipates in 2025 to two.
The so-called hawkish pivot was likely what the central bank had planned for next year before the meeting, according to Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha.
Powell said on Wednesday that some policymakers had begun to weave into their forecasts the potential impact of higher tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump may implement.
“To a large degree the Fed decided to pad its forecast and pre-position for Trump – pulling forward much of what would otherwise have been a hawkish update in March,” Guha wrote in a note.
That makes the Fed’s pronouncement of a new phase of policy “hawkish absolutely, but not as hawkish as it looked,” Guha wrote.
He’s expecting the US central bank to skip a rate cut in January unless cracks appear in the labor market.
The swaps market is now implying fewer than two quarter-point reductions for the entirety of 2025, even less than what was implied in the Fed’s so-called dot plot on Wednesday.
Traders also parsed gross domestic product numbers on Thursday.
The data showed that the US economy expanded at a faster clip in the third quarter than previously expected.
Consumer spending was also marked up.
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week amid volatility seen during the holiday season. Existing-home sales in the US topped a rate of 4 million in November for the first time in six months.

US Corporate Highlights
* Shares of FedEx Corp. rose more than 10% postmarket after the firm said in plans to spin off its freight division into a separate publicly traded company. It also reported earnings.
* Nike Inc. reported sales that surpassed analysts’ expectations, giving new Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill a positive development to tout during his first earnings call. Shares jumped in extended trading.
* United States Steel Corp. warned its fourth-quarter earnings will be lower than anticipated as steel prices remain depressed in the US and as the demand environment in Europe is weak. Shares declined in after-hours trading.
* Bankrupt retailer Big Lots Inc. no longer anticipates it can complete its asset sale to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management LP, and will commence the sale of its stores in coming days.

Beyond the US
Earlier, the Bank of England kept borrowing costs unchanged at 4.75%.
Still, money markets now see two quarter-point reductions and a strong chance of a third in 2025 after three of the nine-member policy committee called for a cut at Thursday’s meeting.
Swap traders had priced in less than two reductions next year prior to the announcement.
The pound declined.
The yen weakened after comments by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda cast doubt on whether the bank could hike interest rates in January.
In China, authorities ramped up support for the currency via its daily reference rate after the Fed’s caution over future rate cuts sent the offshore yuan to a fresh one-year low.
In commodities, oil fell by almost 1% after the Fed’s outlook for next year boosted the dollar.

Key events this week:
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:07 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0367
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.2503
* The Japanese yen fell 1.7% to 157.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.4% to $96,504.7
* Ether fell 8.2% to $3,388.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.57%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.31%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.58%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $69.91 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,596.85 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Cristin Flanagan and Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
“How very little can be done under the spirit of fear.”– Florence Nightingale

Shab Mohammadpour

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com