November 11, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  THANK YOU VETERANS!

On Nov. 11, 1918, fighting in World War I came to an end with the signing of an armistice between the Allies and Germany.  Go to article 

I got a laugh out of this letter when I read it in The New York Times Metropolitan Diary section yesterday:
Dear Diary:
When I was in college, I traveled with a small group of people from Ohio to New York to attend a conference at Columbia University about left-wing politics and progressive activism.
After a long day of teach-in sessions and listening to different speakers, my friend Jackie and I decided to get away for a bit.
We wandered down Amsterdam in search of a drink. We found a dark dive bar and grabbed stools among the dozen or so patrons who were there.
We ordered the cheapest draft beer available. The bartender, correctly sizing us up as out-of-towners, asked what had brought us to the city.
We told him about the event at Columbia.
“We’re socialists,” Jackie told him.
“Oh, cool!” the bartender said. “That’s awesome.”
He continued the conversation, asking us more questions about the conference, what we were studying in college and what the trip from Ohio to New York had been like.
I gave him a $20 bill to pay for the beers, and he went to the register. A minute later, he came back with a handful of singles.
“Now,” he said, “do you want your change or should I evenly distribute it to everyone in here?”
Jonathan Rose

General George S. Patton, war hero, b. 1885.
Kurt Vonnegut Jr., writer, b.1922
Carlos Fuentes, writer, b. 1928
Demi Moore, actress, b. 1962

Was music really better when you were younger?
Generations of music lovers claim music was much better when they were younger — and we don’t disagree. Experts explain why the music of a person’s youth has such a powerful hold.

Monkey mayhem continues
At least 25 monkeys have been recovered after dozens escaped a research center in South Carolina last week. Others are “jumping back and forth” near the facility, police said.

The Northern Taurid meteor shower could produce fireballs
The Northern Taurid meteor shower is expected to peak tonight into Tuesday. Here’s what to look for and how to see it.

Speaking of luck …
An Illinois woman is $1 million richer after finding a lottery ticket she forgot about in her purse.

Two-time shark attack survivor in Florida says he can’t wait to surf again
Not many people know someone who has been bitten by a shark, let alone twice. This surfer still has an un-wave-ring love of the ocean after surviving two shark attacks.

Surprised Russian school kids discover Arctic island has vanished after comparing satellite images
A student-led project comparing satellite images of the Arctic has discovered that a small Russian island has recently vanished after “completely melting” away. Read More.

How many galaxies orbit the Milky Way?
The number of known galaxies circling the Milky Way is increasing as we develop new powerful telescopes. Read More.

‘A direct relationship between your sense of sight and recovery rate’: Biologist Kathy Willis on why looking at nature can speed up healing
Biologist Kathy Willis spoke to Live Science about how touching wood makes us calmer, why looking at a picture of a savanna is calming and how walking through a forest changes our gut microbes. Read More.

Forgetting may provide a surprising evolutionary benefit, experts say
If you didn’t forget things, you’d be in for a world of trouble. Read More.

Did plate tectonics give rise to life? Groundbreaking new research could crack Earth’s deepest mystery.  Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Singapore
The peloton in the Tour de France Singapore Criterium passes by with the Marina Bay Sands building in the background
Photograph: Tim de Waele/Getty Images

London, UK
The Poppy Fields at the Tower, a sound and light show in place over the Remembrance period at the Tower of London
Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

​​​​​​​Cape Town, South Africa
An environmentalist holds a cape water lily, reintroduced to the wetlands of False Bay nature reserve to mark the presentation of the Earthshot prize in the city last week. It has not grown in the area for about 75 years
Photograph: Esa Alexander/Reuters
Market Closes for November 11, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929: Stocks held steady for much of an abbreviated three-hour trading day, only for a tidal wave of selling to hit the market in the last hour. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 6.8%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.1% at 24,789.28 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Onex Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.5%.
Today, 91 of 220 shares rose, while 128 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 35% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 27.1% above its low on Nov. 10, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.2% in the past 5 days and rose 1.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.92t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 8.35% compared with 8.35% in the previous session and the average of 7.62% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 73.0888| 0.9| 17/9
Information Technology| 52.4687| 2.4| 9/1
Energy | 22.8234| 0.5| 20/21
Industrials | 17.0431| 0.5| 18/9
Utilities | 1.6129| 0.2| 6/9
Consumer Staples | 0.0290| 0.0| 5/5
Real Estate | 0.0000| -0.1| 5/15
Health Care | -0.5753| -0.7| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary| -3.6440| -0.4| 2/9
Communication Services| -4.9299| -0.7| 1/4
Materials | -123.8714| -4.1| 6/44
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 34.9400| 3.4| 79.5| 21.5
Brookfield Corp | 24.2100| 3.0| -25.4| 54.0
Constellation Software | 13.4500| 2.2| 14.6| 35.6
Wheaton Precious Metals | -16.8400| -5.9| -23.0| 29.9
Barrick Gold | -17.1900| -5.5| 21.8| 1.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -27.6100| -6.8| 11.7| 49.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The post-election rally in stocks slowed down as a drop in technology shares offset gains in several other corners of the market.
Bitcoin topped $87,000 and the dollar hit a one-year high.
Economically sensitive shares outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index of smaller firms climbing 1.5% to the highest since 2021.
A closely watched gauge of banks rose 2.4%. Most big techs fell, with Nvidia Corp. down 1.6%.
Tesla Inc. jumped 9%, extending a blistering surge.
An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Apple Inc. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — beat the US benchmark.
That gauge is less impacted by the largest companies — providing a glimpse of hope the rally will broaden out.
“No pre-election stock flips = big post-election trades,” said Savita Subramanian at Bank of America Corp. “Election years- especially big changes on status quo – have tended to see more ‘flips’ in active portfolios.  So far this year, clients have been steadfast in positioning, leaving room for additional rotation through year-end from tech to banks/cyclicals, green to brown commodity exposure etc.”
With the election and another rate cut in the rear-view mirror, the question is whether bulls can keep pushing the market to new highs, according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“Aside from any potential profit-taking after such a strong surge, this week’s inflation data may determine whether the market pads its gains,” Larkin said.
US inflation probably moved sideways at best in October, highlighting the uneven path of easing price pressures in the home stretch toward the Fed’s target.
The core consumer price index due on Wednesday, which excludes food and energy, likely rose at the same pace on both a monthly and annual basis compared to September’s readings.
The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, topping 6,000 and notching its 51^st record this year.
The Nasdaq 100 was little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%.
Treasury futures were mildly lower as the cash market was closed due to a US holiday.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.5%.
Oil sank as a soft outlook for demand in China continued to plague the market.
The stock market could rally stronger into the end of the year following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory than it did when he won the US presidency eight years ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.
“I expect 2024 returns to be larger than 2016,” Andrew Tyler, the bank’s head of US market intelligence, wrote in a note to clients Monday.
A big advantage for the S&P 500 is weakness outside the US, with China, the UK, EU, Canada and Mexico all experiencing softer growth than they did back then.
The “animal spirits” being set loose by the economic policies of President-elect Trump will send the S&P 500 to 10,000 by the end of the decade, according to veteran strategist Ed Yardeni.
His uber-bullish prediction, which would represent a 66% surge by 2030, is another sign that Wall Street is growing increasingly optimistic about stock markets in the wake of the US election. Yardeni lifted year-end targets to 6,100 for 2024, 7,000 for 2025 and 8,000 for 2026.
“Stock investors are also thrilled by the regime change to a more pro-business administration promoting tax cuts and deregulation,” he wrote in a note on Monday.
US equities look a bit stretched from a valuation, positioning and sentiment perspective, according to Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets.
She says valuations have not yet peaked on either the S&P 500 nor the Russell 2000 index, but notes there’s far less room to expand going forward.
The sustainability of the stock rally following the US election win will depend on the behavior of the bond market, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
Yields approaching 5% could prove trickier for risk assets to digest, they said.
Corporate earnings are set to become one of the biggest drivers of US stocks as investor focus returns to economic growth following the election.
With the third-quarter reporting season in its final stage, S&P 500 companies have posted an 8.4% increase in profits —double the expected increase, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
Wall Street is even more optimistic for next year, as analysts expect earnings to jump 13% in the biggest increase since 2021, according to BI.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. was promoted to top large-cap pick at Piper Sandler, which highlighted the artificial intelligence-focused chipmaker’s dominant position in AI accelerators, as well as the upcoming launch of its new Blackwell chip.
* Cigna Group said it won’t pursue a combination with rival insurer Humana Inc. after reports the two companies had renewed discussions of a deal.
* AbbVie Inc. tumbled after two mid-stage trials of its drug to treat schizophrenia failed to meet their primary goal, a blow to the company’s $8.7 billion acquisition of Cerevel Therapeutics earlier this year.
* MicroStrategy Inc. bought about 27,200 Bitcoin for around $2.03 billion, the largest purchase by the crypto hedge-fund proxy since just after it began acquiring the digital-asset more than four years ago.

Key events this week:
* Germany CPI, ZEW survey, Tuesday
* Fed speakers include Christopher Waller, Patrick Harker and Neel Kashkari, Tuesday
* Fed issues survey of senior bank loan officers, Tuesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Wednesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Fed speakers include Jeffrey Schmid, Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem, Wednesday
* Eurozone GDP, Thursday
* US PPI, jobless claims, Thursday
* Walt Disney earnings, Thursday
* Fed speakers include Jerome Powell, John Williams and Adriana Kugler, Thursday
* China retail sales, industrial production, Friday
* US retail sales, Empire manufacturing, industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0656
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2867
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 153.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 8.9% to $87,068.54
* Ether rose 5.9% to $3,359.19
Bonds
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.33%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.43%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3% to $68.24 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2.3% to $2,622.62 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The mere absence of war is not peace. –John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com