October 17, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Full moon tonight – it’s going to be the biggest of the year.

Just back from a couple of investment conferences back to back in the US.  Mood is pretty optimistic overall. In my opinion, it can’t be underestimated how adeptly the Biden administration and Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell have steered the US economy to recovery after the pandemic, avoiding a recession and posting economic growth that is the envy of the world.  I was astounded to see how  ubiquitous autonomous vehicles are in San Francisco.  I was there not that long ago, and it wasn’t the case, but this time, it seems everywhere that you look, there is a self driving Waymo vehicle buzzing by.  Seems like they’re about to surpass Uber as the preferred ride in the downtown core anyway.

Catch a glimpse of October’s supermoon today
Need a little space? Take a moment to pause and enjoy the closest supermoon of the year. It’s set to peak at its fullest around 7:26 a.m. ET, but the silvery orb will loom large through Friday morning, according to NASA.

October 17, 1777: British General John Burgoyne surrenders at Saratoga, a pivotal American Revolutionary War victory that convinced France to support the American cause.
On Oct. 17, 1931, mobster Al Capone was convicted of income tax evasion and sentenced to 11 years in prison. He was released in 1939.  Go to article >>.
October 17,1989: San Francisco earthquake.

Museum unveils artifacts from century-old time capsule
A World War I Museum in Kansas City excavated a century-old time capsule, revealing a cornucopia of early 20th-century relics, artifacts and documents.

Most complete Tasmanian tiger genome yet pieced together from 110-year-old pickled head
Researchers working with Colossal Biosciences have assembled a near-complete Tasmanian tiger genome and developed artificial reproductive technologies that could help de-extinct the species. Read more.

Orionid meteor shower 2024: When to see ‘shooting stars’ from Halley’s comet next week
The Orionid meteor shower will peak this week as Earth busts through a stream of meteoroids left in the inner solar system by the famous Halley’s comet. Read more.

Malfunctioning mitochondria may drive Crohn’s disease, early study hints
A new study in mice suggests that dysfunctional mitochondria may change the gut microbiome and thus drive Crohn’s disease. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Guazhou, China
A tourist at the huge sleeping baby sculpture Son of the Earth in Gansu province, the Gobi desert.
Photograph: Tingshu Wang/Reuters

Bankgkok, Thailand
Pedestrians use a skywalk bridge between shopping centres as BTS elevated trains pass above them
Photograph: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP/Getty Images

The Azorean government allowed this project under authorisation 02/orac/24/judithvandegriendt. Precautions are taken by professionals in order to avoid disturbing the animals. According to regional legislation, swimming with whales and other cetaceans that are not dolphins is forbidden
Photographs by Jeroen Hoekendijk
Market Closes for October 17^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1919, Radio Corp. of America was formed by combining radio assets and patents of companies including General Electric and Westinghouse.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.5%, or 129.28 to 24,690.48 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.7%. K92 Mining Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.7%.
Today, 154 of 223 shares rose, while 69 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 0.9%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 33% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 4.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.89t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.12% compared with 8.19% in the previous session and the average of 9.64% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 47.6716| 0.6| 24/3
Energy | 42.0684| 1.0| 33/8
Materials | 22.4171| 0.7| 34/18
Information Technology | 7.4630| 0.4| 6/4
Communication Services | 5.3881| 0.7| 4/1
Utilities | 5.2586| 0.5| 10/5
Consumer Discretionary | 2.0690| 0.3| 8/3
Health Care | 0.0977| 0.1| 3/1
Real Estate | -0.0243| 0.0| 9/11
Industrials | -0.8860| 0.0| 18/9
Consumer Staples | -2.2363| -0.2| 5/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 11.7700| 0.7| 112.4| 30.3
Canadian Natural
Resources | 11.4500| 1.6| -56.6| 13.5
Brookfield Corp | 11.3700| 1.5| -28.7| 43.7
Restaurant Brands | -2.4350| -1.1| 34.6| -5.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -4.3680| -0.6| 4.0| 6.9
Canadian National | -5.3410| -0.9| -13.2| -5.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market got hit as a solid retail sales report had traders trimming their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Treasury yields climbed as the economic figures fanned doubts over how quickly the central bank will ease policy.
Swap contracts priced in a total of 42 basis points of rate reductions over the November and December meetings.
An advance in equities fizzled out after the S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs.
In late trading, Netflix Inc. rallied as subscriber additions beat estimates.
US retail sales strengthened in September by more than forecast in a broad advance, illustrating resilient consumer spending that continues to power the economy.
The data followed a blowout jobs report and a hotter-than-estimated consumer inflation print released earlier this month that only reinforced the view the economy is nowhere near a recession.
“There’s a narrow path toward a Fed pause in November, but it would likely require every notable economic report between now and then indicating a stronger-than-assumed US economy,” said Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
“Regardless of what the Fed does in November though, the projected path for interest rates looking out into 2025 and beyond is higher than it’s been in weeks.”
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%.
Nvidia Corp. gained after a bullish outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Travelers Cos. surged 9% on profit that tripled to $1.3 billion from a year earlier.
Elevance Health Inc. tumbled 11% as the insurer cut its annual outlook.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced seven basis points to 4.09%.
The euro fell as traders added to bets the European Central Bank will need a bumper rate cut in December.
The yen slid to touch the key psychological level of 150 per dollar, bringing the risk of intervention by Japan back into focus.
“This morning’s data highlight undeniable strength across the economy,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Strong data will encourage some pushback from Fed participants to cutting again in November, but Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to be swayed from forging ahead with steady, quarter-point moves.”
Jeff Roach at LPL Research says strong consumer spending in September suggests economic growth in the previous quarter was solidly above trend.
Looking ahead, investors need to monitor any signs that the unemployed are finding it more difficult to earn a paycheck.
“Retail sales came in well above expectations and continue to defy the weak economy thesis,” said Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial. “The implications for monetary policy center on whether the Fed worries that the renewed strength in the economy fuels an uptick in inflation, although expectations remain that there will be a 25 basis-point cut at the next meeting.”
A string of stronger-than-estimated data points sent the US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index to the highest since April.
The gauge measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, if the data continues to come in strong, it could force investors to lower their expectations of Fed rate cuts going forward.
“While rate cuts do matter for the market, they’re not the only thing that matters. Consider how well the market has done this year despite wild fluctuations in interest rate expectations, as earnings and the economy have powered stocks higher,” he noted.
“So long as these pillars remain in place, it should bode well for equities.”
While US stocks are hovering near a record, at least one group of investors — systematic funds — is reducing its equity exposure amid rising price swings. But if history is any guide, the trend will reverse after the election.
The CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX, is trading near 20, up from its average reading of 15 this year through September.
That’s created selling pressure for rules-based systematic funds that typically take cues from the market direction.
Historically, price swings tend to rise leading up to the US Presidential Election as political uncertainty gets on traders’ nerves, before subsiding shortly after, says Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief global derivatives strategist.

Corporate Highlights:
* Allstate Corp. posted $630 million in catastrophe losses in September related to Hurricane Helene.
* Amazon.com Inc.’s Amazon Web Services said that new systems running Nvidia Corp.’s Blackwell chips probably won’t be online until early next year.
* Boeing Co. filed to sell as much as $25 billion of equity and bonds this week, but the plane maker is still awaiting what is typically immediate clearance from regulators.
* CSX Corp. received a subpoena from the US Securities and Exchange Commission focused on previously disclosed accounting errors and certain non-financial performance metrics.
* The US Federal Trade Commission is investigating tractor giant Deere & Co. over whether its agricultural equipment repair practices violate antitrust or consumer protection laws.
* Expedia Group Inc. rallied after the Financial Times reported that Uber Technologies Inc. explored a possible bid for the online travel-booking company.
* Blackstone Inc. posted an increase in profit as its credit arm was boosted by an influx of investor cash and became the firm’s biggest business by assets.

Key events this week:
* China GDP, Friday
* US housing starts, Friday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0828
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3013
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.21 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $66,821.87
* Ether fell 0.9% to $2,595.23
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.09%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.21%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.09%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $70.76 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,692.07 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It is the duty of every human being to look carefully within and see himself as he is, and spare no pains to improve himself in body, mind and soul. –Gandhi, 1869-1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com