October 16th, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 16, 1847: Charlotte Brontë’s book “Jane Eyre” published
October 16, 1987: Dow Jones Industrial Average falls more than 100 points for the 1st time (108.35)
October 16, 2016: Ed Whitlock (85) becomes oldest person to complete a marathon under 4 hours, at Toronto Waterfront Marathon in 3 hours 56 minutes

Gaia space telescope discovers 55 ‘runaway’ careening away from stellar cluster at 80 times the speed of sound
Using the Gaia space telescope, astronomers have observed 55 massive stars ejected from their home star cluster in the Large Magellanic Cloud at speeds equivalent to 80 times the speed of sound.

Are we wrong about the age of the universe? The James Webb telescope is raising big questions.
Some of the earliest galaxies found with JWST are also the brightest. That’s a problem for our ideas about the universe.

Drug inspired by spider venom aims to reverse heart attack damage
A clinical trial will test whether a lab-made version of a molecule found in spider venom can reverse tissue damage after a heart attack.

Scientists finally confirm that solar maximum is well underway — and the worst could still be to come
A surprise announcement from scientists involved in monitoring the solar cycle has finally confirmed that the sun’s most active and dangerous phase — solar maximum — is already well underway, and could continue for at least a year.

2,000-year-old tomb holding 12 skeletons found at Petra where ‘Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade’ was filmed
Archaeologists have discovered a 2,000-year-old tomb containing the remains of 12 individuals at Petra in Jordan.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Chantilly, France
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, his wifem Brigitte Macron, and Belgium’s King Philippe and Queen Mathilde on a visit to the Château de Chantilly, where they saw an exhibition about Louise of Orléans, the French princess who became the first queen of Belgium
Photograph: Yoan Valat/Reuters

Dubai
Morning view of the skyline including the Burj Khalifa
Photograph: Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Sperm whales can be very active at the surface. This adult was lobbing its tail up and down – and defecating in the water. ‘It shows the sheer force of the animal,’ says Hoekendijk. ‘Sperm whales are highly manoeuvrable and can even swim backwards – they wriggle like a snake’
Photograph: Jeroen Hoekendijk
Market Closes for October 16^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1973, OPEC’s Gulf members said they would immediately lift crude oil prices to $5.12 a barrel, “to exercise their sovereign right to determine the price of their natural resources.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 24,561.20 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 128 of 223 shares rose, while 94 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 14.9%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 33% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.87t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.19% compared with 8.17% in the previous session and the average of 9.80% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 58.0151| 0.7| 17/10
Energy | 29.5756| 0.7| 19/22
Utilities | 20.6669| 2.2| 15/0
Materials | 9.2051| 0.3| 24/27
Consumer Staples | 7.6197| 0.8| 8/3
Industrials | 1.8170| 0.1| 14/13
Real Estate | 1.7742| 0.3| 15/5
Consumer Discretionary | 1.3060| 0.2| 6/5
Health Care | 0.7573| 1.0| 3/1
Communication Services | 0.4267| 0.1| 3/2
Information Technology | -9.0328| -0.4| 4/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 18.1900| 1.1| 7.9| 29.4
Cameco | 16.3600| 7.6| 59.7| 34.2
Brookfield Corp | 15.0900| 2.0| -19.5| 41.6
Shopify | -3.8910| -0.4| -35.2| 9.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.0140| -0.6| -59.8| 11.7
Barrick Gold | -5.7560| -1.7| 22.4| 14.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stock traders kept driving a rotation out of the megacaps that have powered the bull market into other corners of Wall Street.
Economically sensitive shares outperformed, with the Russell 2000 of smaller firms hitting the highest in almost three years.
Most big techs fell, though Nvidia Corp. jumped 3.1%.
An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Apple Inc. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — beat the US benchmark.
That gauge is less impacted by the largest companies — providing a glimpse of hope the rally will broaden out.
“Investors may be looking to rotate away from large technology companies, which are widely owned and may have fewer clear catalysts going forward,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“With the election coming and the economy returning to balance, the long-awaited rotation away from megacaps to everything else could finally be at hand.”
Traders also continued to wade through a raft of corporate earnings.
Morgan Stanley climbed 6.5% as traders and bankers joined the rest of their Wall Street rivals in posting better- than-expected revenue, fueling a 32% profit jump for the third quarter.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. jumped 12% as earnings beat estimates.
Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller said markets are pricing in a Donald Trump victory ahead of next month’s presidential election.
In a Bloomberg Television interview, he said “you can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to around 5,840.
The Nasdaq 100 was little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.8%.
The Russell 2000 rallied 1.6%.
The Bloomberg “Magnificent Seven” gauge was little changed.
Treasury 10-year yields declined two basis points to 4.01%.
Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $67,728.77.
“We recently upgraded small caps to neutral vs large caps after a persistent 3 1/2 year period of underperformance,” according to Nicholas Lentini at Morgan Stanley and his colleagues. “This decision came on the back of the strong September jobs report and the Fed’s decision to deliver a 50 basis-point rate cut at last month’s meeting.”
For them to get outright bullish on small caps, leading macro indicators would likely need to reflect a clear acceleration in growth.
To Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial, small caps have been stuck in a consolidation range over the last few months as investors questioned the likelihood of a soft-landing scenario and path of monetary policy.
“With the growth outlook recently improving — underpinned by better-than-feared labor market conditions — and increased visibility into Fed rate cuts, the Russell 2000 has rallied off the lower end of its rising price channel,” he noted. “Recent strength in the banking space has further supported small caps.”
The S&P 500 has already set 46 closing records this year, and according to the trading desk at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., that rally is primed to extend into the final months of 2024.
Scott Rubner, a managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at the bank, estimates the US stock benchmark can finish the year “well north of 6,000.”
According to his calculations of data going back to 1928, the historical median of S&P 500 returns from Oct. 15 to Dec. 31 is 5.17%.
In election years median returns are even higher, just over 7%, implying a year-end level of 6,270.
“The equity market selloff is canceled, and a year-end rally is starting to resonate with clients shifting from hedging from the left-tail to the right-tail as institutional investors are getting forced into the market right now,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. Professional investors are growing concerned about materially underperforming their benchmarks, he added.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. is considering raising about $15 billion in a sale of shares and a mandatory convertible bond, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
* J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.’s third-quarter profit topped the average analyst estimate. Revenue fell less than analysts expected.
* ASML Holding NV Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet said he expects the chip market’s long-awaited recovery will extend “well into 2025,” following disappointing third-quarter earnings that sparked a broad selloff across the semiconductor industry.
* Qualcomm Inc. is likely to wait until after the US presidential election in November before deciding whether to pursue an offer to buy Intel Corp., people familiar with the matter said.
* U.S. Bancorp raked in net interest income that topped analyst estimates as fixed-rate assets in its portfolio benefited from higher borrowing costs.
* Novavax Inc. tumbled after US regulators placed a hold on the company’s experimental influenza and Covid-19 combination vaccines because a study volunteer developed a serious nerve disorder.
* Abbott Laboratories narrowed its full-year profit outlook, raising the midpoint slightly, as strong demand for its diabetes devices continued driving growth.
* Airbus SE plans to eliminate as many as 2,500 positions at its defense and space division as the European aircraft manufacturer seeks to streamline a business that’s consistently racked up charges and suffered from stiff competition.
* Warburg Pincus is weighing a possible buyout of German IT services company Nagarro SE, people familiar with the matter said, potentially adding to the strong momentum of dealmaking in the country.

Key events this week:
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Thursday
* China GDP, Friday
* US housing starts, Friday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0858
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2982
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 149.69 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $67,728.77
* Ether rose 1.7% to $2,615.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.01%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.18%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 4.06%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,674.72 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

Shab
” Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise; seek what they sought.”– Matsuo Chuemon Munefusa

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828