October 15, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 15, 1581: Commissioned by Catherine de’ Medici, the first ballet “Ballet Comique de la Reine” is staged in Paris
October 15, 1789: 1st US presidential tour by George Washington in New England
October 15, 1924: US President Calvin Coolidge declares Statue of Liberty a national monument

The biggest supermoon of the year is about to rise: When to see the ‘Hunter’s Moon’ at its best and brightest
The Hunter’s Moon will be the first full moon of autumn when it rises on Oct. 17. It will also be the third and closest supermoon of the year.

Phaistos Disk: 3,000-year-old inscriptions from Crete that have never been deciphered
None of the many interpretations of the Phaistos Disk’s inscriptions are universally accepted.

5,000-year-old cemetery in Spain has twice as many females as males, and nobody knows why
There are more than twice as many females as males buried in an ancient cemetery in Spain, a new study finds — but no one knows why.

Record-breaking ancient spinning galaxy challenges cosmic evolution theories
Astronomers have discovered the earliest strongly rotating galaxy ever seen that’s well-organized rather than chaotic, challenging theories of cosmic evolution.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ohrid, North Macedonia
A satellite leaves a trail of light near the tail of the comet, known as the comet of the century, after sunset
Photograph: Ognen Teofilovski/Reuters

Vienna, Austria
Photographers prepare to capture Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–Atlas) in the night sky
Photograph: Georg Hochmuth/APA/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​‘A pod of Atlantic spotted dolphins rushed in on our first day out, and bow-rode in front of the boat. It was a sign of how lucky we were going to be,’ says Hoekendijk. The species, with their paint-spattered appearance, prefer these subtropical waters, warmed by the Gulf Stream
Photograph: Jeroen Hoekendijk
Market Closes for October 15^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1878, Thomas Edison founded the Edison Electric Light Co. to research and develop the incandescent light bulb. It issued 3,000 shares of stock at $100 apiece. In 1889 the company, funded largely by J.P. Morgan, was renamed Edison General Electric.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 24,439.08 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.2% on Oct.7 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.7%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.3%.
Today, 87 of 223 shares fell, while 136 rose; 3 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 34% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Oct. 11, 2024 and 30.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.88t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.17% compared with 9.30% in the previous session and the average of 9.88% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -90.7806| -2.1| 9/32
Information Technology | -14.7887| -0.7| 4/6
Consumer Discretionary | -1.0875| -0.1| 4/7
Health Care | 1.9693| 2.7| 3/1
Industrials | 3.8879| 0.1| 17/10
Communication Services | 4.6335| 0.6| 4/1
Consumer Staples | 4.6815| 0.5| 7/4
Real Estate | 7.3234| 1.4| 20/0
Materials | 9.2520| 0.3| 36/16
Utilities | 17.1975| 1.9| 12/3
Financials | 25.6186| 0.3| 20/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -44.0100| -5.7| 16.0| 12.3
Suncor | -25.2100| -5.1| -15.1| 24.3
Shopify | -13.6200| -1.4| -28.8| 9.5
RBC | 11.3700| 0.7| 126.0| 28.0
TC Energy | 12.5400| 2.8| -44.9| 36.9
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 13.6100| 3.6| -9.2| 55.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks got hit as a disappointing outlook from Europe’s most-valuable tech company and concern about tighter US restrictions on chip sales spurred a selloff in the industry that has powered the bull market.
Equities dropped from all-time highs, with the S&P 500 down lmost 1%. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 1.4%.
A closely watched gauge of semiconductor firms saw its worst plunge since early September.
US-traded shares of ASML Holding NV plummeted 16% after the Dutch giant cut its guidance for 2025.
Nvidia Corp. sank 4.5% on news US officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from the company and other American firms to some countries.
Allocations to equities surged, while bond exposure sank and cash levels in global portfolios fell to 3.9% in October from 4.2% last month, triggering a “sell signal”, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote.
“US equity markets, skewed more toward large-cap leadership, are seeing profit-taking today as earnings season ramps up against overbought/extended charts,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
The S&P 500 slipped to around 5,815.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.8%.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. sank 8.1% on a disappointing outlook.
Bank of America Corp. rose as earnings beat estimates.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was little changed and Citigroup Inc. sank despite solid results.
Treasury 10-year yields declined seven basis points to 4.03%.
The dollar rose.
Oil plunged as a report that Israel may avoid targeting Iran’s crude infrastructure eased concerns about a potential supply disruption.
Weekly flows for the S&P 500 were near the largest observed this year, according to Citigroup strategists led by Chris Montagu.
Positioning is very extended and sits at 98^th percentile.
“We worry that valuations are getting stretched, as stocks are near ‘priced to perfection’,” said Lamar Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co.
With the S&P 500 holding over 5,800, UBS Group AG’s Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey were the latest to raise their year-end call for the gauge.
They boosted it to 5,850 from 5,600 — while lifting their 2025 forecast to 6,400 from 6,000.
“Fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty, and potential election outcomes, make 2025 returns far from certain,” Golub wrote.
That didn’t prevent him from betting that the stock market can keep powering on, noting that risks are skewed to the upside, with moderating inflation, rate cuts, improvement in low-end consumer and business activity and broad-based profit strength.
To Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs, US stocks are set to extend their rally into the final months of the year, pushing the S&P 500 past 6,000, as corporate buyers re-enter the market and institutional investors drop their hedges.

Corporate Highlights:
* Johnson & Johnson reported stronger-than-expected third- quarter earnings, driven by surging sales of the cancer medicine Darzalex.
* Charles Schwab Corp. reported earnings per share that topped analyst estimates and curbing some of its expensive debt — a sign the firm has moved past a bout of turbulence last year.
* PNC Financial Services Group Inc. pulled in more net interest income than analysts expected in the third quarter, another period of sequential growth for the bank’s biggest source of revenue as the firm continues to predict a record haul next year.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. plans to close 14% of its US stores to cut costs as consumers pull back spending.
* PG&E Corp. said it may need to cut power to homes and businesses across a large portion of California starting later this week when dry, gusty winds are expected to sweep across the state.
* LVMH’s sales of fashion and leather goods fell for the first time since the pandemic as the industry’s biggest player was hammered by a slump in demand from Chinese consumers whose appetite for high-end purchases once seemed insatiable.
* Adidas AG raised its annual profit target for the third quarter in a row amid the sustained boom for retro sneakers like the Samba and more sales from its shrinking stockpile of Yeezy footwear.

Key events this week:
* Morgan Stanley earnings, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Thursday
* China GDP, Friday
* US housing starts, Friday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0887
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3069
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 149.21 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $66,979.55
* Ether fell 1.1% to $2,591.82
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.03%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.22%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.16%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.9% to $70.92 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,662.01 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

Shab
” If a little dreaming is dangerous, the cure for it is not to dream less, but to dream more, to dream all the time.” — Marcel Proust

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

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