October 9, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 9, 1865: First US underground pipeline for carrying oil is laid in Pennsylvania
October 9, 1870: Rome is incorporated into Italy by royal decree
October 9, In 1874: the Universal Postal Union was created by the Treaty of Bern, revolutionizing international mail services
October 9, 1941: US President Franklin D. Roosevelt approves an atomic program that would become the Manhattan Project

Ancient piece of driftwood hidden for thousands of years could hold secrets for combating climate change
A 3,775-year-old log found in Canada had barely lost any of its carbon content since being buried, indicating “wood vaulting” is a viable means of carbon storage.

New ‘biological aging’ test predicts your odds of dying within the next 12 months
A new test uses a cheek swab to predict your risk of death within one year — how does it work?

How strong can hurricanes get?
There’s a theoretical limit to the maximum sustained wind speeds of hurricanes, but climate change may increase that “speed limit.”

World’s most powerful X-ray laser set for massive upgrade that will help us better understand the atomic world
Researchers will be able to analyze chemical compounds and atoms in greater detail than ever before using the brightest, clearest laser of its kind anywhere in the world

‘Every volcano has its own personality’: Mystery Mount Adams earthquake surge under investigation
Scientists are installing multiple temporary seismic monitoring stations to get a better understanding of the sharp increase in earthquakes recorded at Mount Adams. Read more.

Never-before-seen head of prehistoric, car-size ‘millipede’ solves evolutionary mystery
The fossil showed unique stalked eyes and centipede-like characteristics.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bangkok, Thailand
Dancers perform a dragon dance during the vegetarian festival celebration at Yaowarat, Bangkok’s Chinatown
Photograph: Peerapon Boonyakiat/Sopa Images/Rex/Shutterstock

London, UK
Three Studies for a Portrait of Isabel Rawsthorne during a preview for the National Portrait Gallery’s Francis Bacon: Human Presence exhibition
Photograph: Lucy North/PA

​​​​​​​Durham, UK
An art installation called Space by Luxmuralis is projected on to the interior of Durham Cathedral. This year projections will include original footage of a rocket launch and an image of Earth under a galaxy of stars
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty
Market Closes for October 9^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On  this day in 1998, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index, formerly the measure of the mightiest stock market in the world, closed at 12879.97. That was down nearly 67% from the then-record high it had notched in late 1989. 
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 24,224.90 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%. 
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest increase, rising 11.9%.
Today, 148 of 223 shares rose, while 71 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 16%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 33% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 29.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.82t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.24% compared with 9.38% in the previous session and the average of 10.99% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 33.1000| 1.6| 9/1
Financials | 31.8292| 0.4| 20/7
Energy | 27.6583| 0.7| 18/22
Industrials | 26.0876| 0.8| 24/3
Materials | 19.3077| 0.7| 35/15
Consumer Discretionary | 8.2149| 1.0| 10/1
Utilities | 2.3643| 0.3| 9/6
Real Estate | 2.3103| 0.4| 9/10
Consumer Staples | 1.6795| 0.2| 9/2
Health Care | 0.1003| 0.1| 2/2
Communication Services | -0.2453| 0.0| 3/2
===============================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 13.8700| 1.5| -8.9| 10.9
RBC | 12.7500| 0.8| 1.7| 25.2
Brookfield Corp | 9.6580| 1.3| -9.0| 36.5
Couche-Tard | -3.3430| -0.8| -28.3| -5.4
Bank of Nova Scotia| -3.4360| -0.6| -33.1| 10.2
Fairfax Financial | -6.2150| -2.4| 92.8| 35.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for key inflation data sent stocks to fresh all-time highs.
Treasuries retreated while the dollar notched its longest winning run in more than two years.
On the eve of a report expected to show consumer prices continued to moderate, the S&P 500 approached 5,800.
The gauge hit its 44th record in 2024, with tech shares once again leading the charge.
Apple Inc. climbed 1.7%.
Nvidia Corp. halted a five-day rally.
Tesla Inc. edged lower ahead of the Robotaxi launch.
Alphabet Inc. fell 1.5% on news the US is weighing a Google breakup in a historic big-tech antitrust case.
Major technology stocks have undergone volatility in both directions of late, but weakness represents an attractive buying opportunity, according to Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We remain positive on the tech sector as well as the outlook for artificial intelligence,” and “against this backdrop, we believe volatility should be utilized to build long-term AI exposure,” she said.
Markets barely budged after minutes of the latest Federal Reserve gathering, which showed Jerome Powell received some pushback on a half-point rate cut in September, as some officials preferred a smaller reduction.
“Today’s Fed minutes were pretty ‘ho-hum,’ which could actually be a good thing for stock investors,” said David Russell at TradeStation. “Policymakers agree inflation is fading and they see potential weakness in job growth.
That keeps rate cuts on the table if needed.
The bottom line is that Powell might have the market’s back headed into the year end.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.8%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.06%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4% — up for an eighth straight session.
Oil held steady as US crude inventories swelled and traders monitored China’s plans for fiscal policy.
US inflation probably moderated at the end of the third quarter, reassuring a Fed that’s shifting more of its policy focus toward shielding the labor market.
The consumer price index is seen rising 0.1% in September, its smallest gain in three months.
Compared with a year earlier, the CPI probably rose 2.3%, the sixth-straight slowdown and the tamest since early 2021.
The gauge excluding the volatile food and energy categories, which provides a better view of underlying inflation, is projected to rise 0.2% from a month earlier and 3.2% from September 2023.
“The Fed’s decision to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market means that inflation data, including tomorrow’s CPI, is likely to become less market-moving than it had been,” said Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index. “Despite that logical observation, this month’s CPI report may still drive market volatility coming on the back of Friday’s stellar jobs report, a reading that hints at the potential for renewed upside risks to inflation.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 42% of investors expect the market reaction to CPI to be “mixed/negligible,” 32% said “risk-off” and only 25% think “risk-on.”
“There is optimism about inflation generally,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V. He also noted that the share of investors expecting a recession has fallen while the percentage of those who believe financial conditions need to tighten hit the highest since June.
For the bull run in stocks to continue, inflation needs to continue to ebb, the economy needs to make a soft landing and Corporate America’s earnings growth needs to remain strong and broaden, according to Ed Clissold at Ned Davis Research.
While Saturday marks the two-year anniversary of the bull-market, a crucial piece of the current rally that’s been missing for much of the past few years — broader breadth — may juice the next leg higher for share gains.
Large caps and growth shares have historically outperformed in the third year of a bull market, but they are currently overbought versus small-cap companies and value equities, Clissold noted.
Meantime, billionaire investor Bill Gross says the rally that’s helped US stocks almost double in value over the past five years is tapering off, and investors should expect low but positive returns on their investments.
He recommends keeping exposure to the stock market at average levels, while focusing portfolios more on defensive stocks with a small position in bonds.
“No bear market, but it’s not the same bull market anymore,” Gross, the co-founder and former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. enjoyed its best-ever quarter for China shipments, as vehicles delivered from its Shanghai factory rose for a third consecutive month.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. posted a better-than-expected 39% rise in quarterly revenue, assuaging concerns that AI hardware spending is beginning to taper off.
* Rio Tinto Group has agreed to buy Arcadium Lithium Plc in an all-cash deal valuing the US-listed miner at $6.7 billion, expanding its grip on the battery metal and stepping back into the M&A fray with its biggest deal in 17 years.
* B. Riley Financial Inc.’s lenders are getting more oversight of the company’s finances, including weekly updates on its liquidity and some of its dealmaking amid efforts to pull the money-losing investment firm out of its tailspin.
* Generac Holdings Inc. is running low on portable backup generators after Hurricane Helene and other recent storms knocked out power for millions of Americans.
* GSK Plc said it will pay as much as $2.2 billion to resolve about 80,000 US court cases related to allegations that its old reflux medication Zantac was contaminated with a suspected carcinogen.

Key events this week:
* US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s John Williams and Thomas Barkin speak, Thursday
* JPMorgan, Wells Fargo kick off earnings season for the big Wall Street banks, Friday
* US PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0939
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3065
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 149.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $60,966.5
* Ether fell 1.1% to $2,415.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.26%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.18%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $73.44 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,609.26 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

Shab
“What do we live for, if it is not to make life less difficult for each other?”– Mary Ann Evans “George Eliot”

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828