September 20, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Sunday marks the first day of Autumn.

September 20, 1873: Panic swept the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of railroad bond defaults and bank failures. Go to article >>

Alexander the Great, b. 356 BC.
Sophia Loren, actress, b.1934.

🎨 Hidden meaning? The turbulent skies of Vincent van Gogh’s masterpiece “The Starry Night” are believed to align with a scientific theory. Take a closer look.

Mysterious sound coming from the Mariana Trench has finally been explained
A new study has revealed the exact origin of the Pacific Ocean’s mysterious “biotwang” noises, which were first detected by underwater surveys near the Mariana Trench in 2014. Read More.

Man buried with large stones on his chest to prevent him from ‘rising from the grave’ unearthed in Germany
Archaeologists in Germany have unearthed a “revenant” grave where a man was buried with large stones on his chest to prevent him from rising from the dead. Read More.

Scientist who discovered body’s ‘fire alarm’ against invading bacteria wins $250,000 Lasker prize
One of this year’s coveted Lasker Awards has gone to Zhijian “James” Chen, a scientist behind a key immune-system discovery. Read More.

Oprah Winfrey joins Kamala Harris at star-studded online rally
Vice President Kamala Harris sought to capitalize on the star power of Oprah Winfrey and Hollywood celebrities to win over potential voters during an online rally Thursday. Here’s what they discussed.

Why we’re so fascinated by spy stories
“The name’s Bond, James Bond.” From the 007 franchise to “Mission: Impossible” and “Slow Horses,” here’s why we love watching spies.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Frankfurt, Germany
Fog shrouds the landscape on the outskirts of the city
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

A meadow brown butterfly. Butterfly Conservation has announced that 2024 has seen the lowest numbers of butterfly populations in its 14-year history in the UK. It follows the conclusion of the Big Butterfly Count, which sees participants logging numbers and types spotted across the country. Those taking part spotted seven butterflies per 15 minutes, a reduction of nearly 50% on last year’s average of 12
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Bramble Bank, UK
Members of the Royal Southern Yacht Club and the Island Sailing Club take part in the annual Brambles cricket match on the sandbank in the middle of the Solent at low tide. This year marks the 40th anniversary of the first game being played
Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA
Market Closes for September 20^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1873, the stock market crashed and the New York Stock Exchange Board of Governors closed the market for the first time on record. The cause of the plunge: A third of all money on loan from New York banks had gone into buying stocks on margin.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 23,867.55 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 8.1%.
Today, 112 of 226 shares rose, while 113 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 14%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.1%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 2.2%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 29% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.2% below its 52-week high on Sept. 19, 2024 and 27.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.78t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.44% compared with 10.43% in the previous session and the average of 13.48% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 16.4109| 0.6| 30/22
Energy | 11.5871| 0.3| 19/21
Consumer Staples | 4.2595| 0.4| 6/5
Utilities | 4.2359| 0.5| 12/3
Financials | 1.7085| 0.0| 13/14
Communication Services | 0.8391| 0.1| 3/2
Real Estate | 0.4017| 0.1| 11/9
Health Care | -0.7252| -1.0| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -2.8981| -0.4| 6/7
Information Technology | -6.5954| -0.3| 2/8
Industrials | -28.1171| -0.9| 8/20
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Cameco | 13.7600| 8.1| 391.5| 5.4
TC Energy | 11.7400| 2.7| 479.0| 21.0
Bank of Nova Scotia| 11.5100| 1.9| 196.4| 13.7
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.0590| -1.2| 363.9| 11.1
Canadian National | -10.0000| -1.6| 244.2| -4.6
RBC | -16.1100| -1.0| 173.1| 23.4
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — US stocks churned in Friday’s final minutes of trading amid expiring derivatives contracts and a big rebalancing.
Gold set an all-time high as traders contemplated the central bank’s next move.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both ended the session down 0.2% with the broader benchmark fresh off its 39th record high of 2024.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.1% gain — enough for a closing record. More than 20 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, the busiest session since January 2021.
Friday’s quarterly “triple witching” saw about $5.1 trillion derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options and futures mature, according to an estimate from derivatives analytical firm Asym 500.
At the same time another $250 billion in index trades were being digested.
The event has a reputation for causing sudden price moves as contracts disappear and traders roll over their existing positions or start new ones.
While US equities were able to extend a rally into its second week, gauges lost traction during the session after a handful of disappointing earnings reports.
FedEx Corp. plunged 15% after the economic bellwether missed profit estimates and cautioned that its business would slow.
Lennar Corp. slipped after quarterly home orders fell short of Wall Street expectations Intel Corp. was among the session’s advancers after a report of a Qualcomm Inc. takeover approach while Constellation Energy Corp., the biggest US operator of reactors, closed at a record on plans to put Three Mile Island back into service.
Traders picked at the differing views offered by Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.
Waller told CNBC it was favorable inflation data that convinced him to support the Fed’s decision for a half percentage point interest- rate cut this week. Bowman, the lone dissenting voice against the jumbo rate cut, said the move was declaring victory over inflation too early.
Confidence has been growing that the central bank will be able to engineer a soft landing, but warnings such as the one from FedEx underscore lingering concerns.
Fed policymakers have projected a further half point of reductions this year.
“A sustained melt-up in risk is unlikely into peak election uncertainty that may generate a soft patch in the data,” Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha wrote. “Investors should view the gains in risk post-Fed as a down payment, with a check in the mail for the balance after election day.”
Evercore ISI’s vice chairman sees another half-point cut as possible if labor or inflation data come in weak.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon registered his doubts that the world’s largest economy can straddle slowing growth without tipping into a recession.
“I hope it’s true,” he said at an event. “But I’m also more skeptical that inflation is going to go away so easily, not because it hasn’t come down — it has — and it can come down more.”
Gold traded above $2,600 an ounce, extending gains after an Israeli strike on a Beirut suburb. Meanwhile, a gauge of dollar strength edged higher while Treasuries were mixed.
For Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett, the optimism in equity markets following the Fed’s move is stoking the risk of a bubble, making bonds and gold an attractive hedge against any recession or renewed inflation.
The strategist said stocks are now pricing in more Fed easing and about 18% earnings growth for the S&P 500 by end-2025.
It doesn’t “get much better than that for risk, so investors are forced to chase” the rally, Hartnett wrote in a note.
He also said stocks outside the US and commodities were a good way to play a possible soft economic landing, with the latter being an inflation hedge.
International equities are cheaper and starting to outperform US peers, according to Hartnett.
The yen slid after Governor Kazuo Ueda proved less hawkish than some traders expected. Ueda signaled little urgency to hike rates, and said that upside risks to inflation are easing.
Investors will get fresh data on PMI, GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, next week.
They will also hear from a number of policymakers including Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1161
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3316
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 143.91 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $62,856.63
* Ether rose 3.1% to $2,543.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.73%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.21%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.90%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,621.47 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, John Viljoen, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Edward Bolingbroke.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

Carolann
A man wrapped up in himself makes a very small bundle. -Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com