August 16, 2024

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
Palio of the Contrade, sienna, Italy.

On Aug. 16, 1977, singer Elvis Presley died at Graceland Mansion in Memphis, Tenn., at age 42. Go to article >>
“I don’t know anything about music.  In my line you don’t have to.” –Elvis Presley.

Babe Ruth, baseball great, d.1948.
Madonna, singer, b.1958.

How a yard sale became best in show. — Paul J. Davies

Free rent and free parking: Landlords are throwing in sweeteners
The US rental market is slowing down, forcing many landlords to offer surprising deals to get tenants to sign on the dotted line.

Ocean Photographer of the Year finalists revealed
These are the top images selected from the more than 15,000 submitted by the best coastal, drone and underwater photographers from around the world.

Ying Ying, oldest first-time panda mom, gives birth to twins
We come bear-ing good news! A giant panda in Hong Kong has given birth to twins after more than a decade of trying to mate successfully.

Iconic Babe Ruth jersey could sell for record-breaking $30 million
The jersey that legendary New York Yankees player Babe Ruth wore when he hit one of baseball’s most famous home runs is up for sale.

5-second breaks can help reduce aggression between couples
Inhale, then exhale. Taking a five-second break during an argument with your significant other could help defuse the situation, according to new research. 

World’s fastest charger can fully power up your smartphone in under 5 minutes
New record-breaking fast-charging technology can power up your smartphone battery quicker than you can write an email. Read More.

Pompeii victims died in ‘extreme agony,’ 2 newfound skeletons reveal
Archaeologists have found the skeletons of a man and a woman, along with their valuables, in a room in Pompeii. Read More.

Earth’s days were once 2 hours longer, study suggests
The moon was once thousands of miles farther away than it is now, and Earth’s days were 2.2 hours longer — and that may have triggered one of the biggest evolutionary explosions in history. Read More.

1st ‘blue supermoon’ of 2024 rises Monday: How to see the ‘Sturgeon Moon’ at its biggest and best
The year’s first supermoon is also the third full moon in a summer that includes four, making it a ‘blue supermoon’. Here’s how to see August’s full Sturgeon Moon rise. Read More.

Sweden reports 1st case of deadlier mpox outside Africa
Following the WHO’s declaration that the mpox outbreak in Africa is a global health emergency, Sweden reported its first case of a deadlier clade of the virus. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Bali, Indonesia
Dancers perform for tourists in a small village that celebrates traditional Balinese culture
Photograph: Thilina Kaluthotage/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Samsun, Turkey
Lake Ladik’s water levels have receded sharply after a recent drought
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Cannes, France
Technicians representing Canada show off their skills during the annual pyrotechnic art festival
Photograph: Chateau Cyril/ABACA/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for August 16^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1982, the Journal reported that respected portfolio manager Richard I. Sichel had 30% of his stock funds in cash and favored high-grade bonds. Sichel warned earnings could disappoint and the Dow could hit “the low 700s.” In fact, the index never neared that level again, ending the year over 1000. Nowadays it sits above 40000.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 23,054.61 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.8%. New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.4%.
Today, 112 of 226 shares rose, while 112 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 3.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 3
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 23.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.61% compared with 14.91% in the previous session and the average of 12.40% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 42.2057| 1.5| 38/13
Financials | 40.3150| 0.6| 21/6
Utilities | 1.4948| 0.2| 10/5
Real Estate | 0.6447| 0.1| 13/7
Consumer Discretionary | 0.2319| 0.0| 9/4
Health Care | 0.1788| 0.3| 2/1
Communication Services | -2.0763| -0.3| 0/5
Consumer Staples | -4.0041| -0.4| 3/8
Information Technology | -9.6264| -0.5| 4/6
Industrials | -21.8631| -0.7| 8/20
Energy | -25.6171| -0.6| 4/37
================================================================
| | |Volume VS || Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 11.4700| 0.8| -73.0| 14.3
Barrick Gold | 9.8140| 3.1| 13.1| 12.7
CIBC | 8.2570| 1.8| 17.8| 12.8
Canadian Pacific | | | |
Kansas | -5.8010| -0.8| -56.4| 3.2
Shopify | -6.2530| -0.7| -62.4| -1.1
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | -7.3420| -1.0| -45.6| 15.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A flurry of data showing US economic resilience drove stocks to their best week this year, with dip buyers stepping in after a recent rout.
Equities extended their advance into a seventh straight session, with the S&P 500 seeing its best performance in such a span since October 2022. Just a week ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, traders hope the Federal Reserve chief will set expectations for the next policy gathering. While officials have brought down inflation, the labor market is still a wild card.
The stock market halted a streak of four weeks of losses that had been partially driven by concern the Fed wouldn’t reduce borrowing costs fast enough to prevent a deeper slowdown in the largest economy. Data this week showing ebbing inflation and a resilient consumer rekindled hopes the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing.
“This week’s reassuring inflation data has bolstered investor confidence, leading to a notable surge in market optimism,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “The persistent ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality remains in play, as investors who had moved to the sidelines over the last month raced to get back in.”
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,555. Most mega caps gained, with Nvidia Corp. leading the charge. Nike Inc. saw its longest winning streak in more than eight years. Applied Materials Inc. sank after a sales forecast that disappointed investors looking
for a bigger payoff from artificial-intelligence spending. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the VIX – dropped below 15. Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 3.88%.
The dollar had its third straight week losses — the longest streak since March. Hedge funds turned bullish on Japan’s currency for the first time since 2021 after sharp swings in foreign-exchange markets led to a blow-up of a popular yen
trade.
Gold hit $2,500, bolstered by hopes that the Fed is edging closer to cutting rates.
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
Of course, traders have struggled to forecast where the economy is headed — and the recession fears that helped drive the recent pullback could resurface again just as quickly as they faded. On top of that, the US elections and geopolitical
tensions are adding other elements of uncertainty. But beneath the surface, there are some reassuring signals.
Among them: The selloff hit a relatively small slice of the market, with nowhere near the breadth of the routs set off by the Fed’s rate hikes, the pandemic and other pivotal events. And while valuations are at risk of another recalibration if the
economy does wind up sputtering, the S&P 500 during the recent retreat held above a threshold that — to technical analysts, at least — telegraphs investors’ continued confidence.
Positioning and macro factors shift the market skew to positive, but investors should still focus on buying high- quality assets, according to Tony Pasquariello at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The speculative community has cleaned up a decent amount of length since the July highs,” Pasquariello wrote in note to clients Friday, referring to Goldman’s prime brokerage data that tracks hedge funds’ positioning and the latest update from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
“The week was essentially a ‘one way’ week, harshly punishing pessimistic outlooks,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “Nonetheless, the economic data still comes with contradictions. Significant uncertainties persist,
warranting caution against excessive optimism.”
At Bank of America Corp., Ralf Preusser says the next few weeks will likely determine whether the Fed ends up cutting by 50-75 basis points this year or more aggressively.
“We maintain a bullish bias in US rates, and would see a Jackson Hole-induced selloff as an opportunity to buy,” he noted.
Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole: Bill Dudley Fed Chair Powell will speak next Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
With the central bank on the cusp of lowering interest rates from a more than two-decade high, Powell’s comments will be closely parsed for any hints on how the Fed chief is viewing the economy in the wake of a weaker-than-expected jobs report and further easing in inflation.
Pricing in the swap market has stabilized, implying around 30 basis points of easing next month and about 93 basis points by the end of the year. That marks a big retreat after traders were indicating more than 150 basis points of Fed cuts for 2024
earlier this month.
“Investors will also be looking for any guidance as to whether Powell is leaning toward a 25 or 50 basis-point rate cut,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. “We’re in the 25 basis-point cut camp to be sure, and we anticipate the Chair will err on the side of flexibility by utilizing the time-tested ‘data dependent’ framing.”
“We look for Powell to signal that given recent progress, the Fed is likely to ease policy next month — without fully committing to the size of the rate cut,” according to TD Securities’ strategists. “We expect a 25 basis-point reduction.”
While recent data have indicated that a 25-basis point cut in September seems more probable than a bigger reduction, given the Fed’s increasing emphasis on the labor market, the next jobs report will be crucial in determining the final decision, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The main message in Powell’s speech will likely be that monetary policy overall has worked as intended, and the current level of rates is restrictive,” said Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics. “He may say the balance of risk between the Fed’s mandates – employment and inflation – is about even. We expect him to signal a rate cut is coming, but not to indicate whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 bps. That will depend on the August jobs report.”
The more I think about and discuss the likely outcomes for next week’s Jackson Hole meeting, the more I return to this concern: that Chair Powell will tell us to “curb your enthusiasm,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“It hardly seems appropriate for Chair Powell to re-affirm (the market’s) likelihood (of more than three cuts this year) at his Jackson Hole address next week given that it would put him well ahead of the last Summary of Economic Projections just weeks before the next one is due,” he noted.
Corporate Highlights:
* Mastercard Inc. is cutting 3% of staff worldwide, according to a spokesperson for the payments network.
* Boeing Co. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg met with union representatives during his first week on the job and said he’s “committed to reset” the relationship the company’s relationship with workers as the US plane maker heads into crucial labor negotiations next month.
* Fox Corp., Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. and Walt Disney Co. were blocked by a judge from launching their streaming sports service one week before its rollout, taking a blow from their smaller rival FuboTV Inc.
* Texas Instruments Inc. is set to receive $1.6 billion in Chips Act grants and $3 billion in loans, the Biden administration announced Friday, marking the latest major award from a program designed to boost American semiconductor manufacturing.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. has paused production of the electric commercial van it makes for Amazon.com Inc. due to a parts shortage in the latest supply chain snafu for the EV maker.
* Bayer AG shares jumped following a significant win for the German company in the long-running cancer litigation over its Roundup weedkiller.
* A combination Covid-flu vaccination developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE missed on one of its goals in a final-stage trial, a setback for the companies as they search for lucrative new uses of a technology that succeeded in the pandemic.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1024
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.2945
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 147.69 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.4% to $59,726.35
* Ether rose 2.8% to $2,621.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.88%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.25%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $76.74 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.1% to $2,507.76 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg
Automation.

–With assistance from John Viljoen, Richard Henderson and
Felice Maranz.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

Carolann
He who understands my music can never know unhappiness again. –Ludwig van Beethoven, 1770-1827.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com