June 25, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 25, 1950: War broke out on the Korean peninsula as forces from the communist North invaded the South.
June 25, 1967: The world’s first live global satellite TV program is aired.  The Beatles premiered their song “All You Need Is Love” on the show.  Some 400 million viewers tuned in.

George Orwell, b.1903.
Carly Simon, singer/songwriter, b. 1945

‘The early universe is nothing like we expected’: James Webb telescope reveals ‘new understanding’ of how galaxies formed at cosmic dawn
Astronomers using the James Webb Space Telescope have observed five extremely dense proto-globular clusters along a hair-thin arc of glittering stars. The discovery could help them understand how the earliest galaxies formed.
Read More.

Medieval woman buried alongside 23 warrior monks in Spain was likely a warrior herself, study finds
“We should picture her as a warrior of about forty years of age, just under five feet tall, neither stocky nor slender and skillful with a sword”. Read More.

2,000-year-old Roman military sandal with nails for traction found in Germany
Archaeologists used X-rays to analyze the remains of a sandal unearthed near a Roman fort in Bavaria. Full Story: Live Science (6/25)

Gaia space telescope helps astronomers image hidden objects around bright stars
The Gaia space telescope has spotted the dim companions of eight bright stars, suggesting we can expect new glimpses of distant planets. Read More.

New AI algorithm flags deepfakes with 98% accuracy — better than any other tool out there right now
Recent research into methods for spotting AI-generated video looks for specific markers not found in standard digital images. Read More.

Florida Panthers capture first NHL title in franchise history
The Florida Panthers nabbed the Stanley Cup on Monday after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in a thrilling Game 7!

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Warsaw, Poland
People standing on the banks of the Vistula River look on as a large wreath floats on the water. Wreaths of field flowers are thrown into the river at the summer solstice to bring good luck
Photograph: Wojtek Radwański/AFP/Getty Images

Dorset, UK
People take part in the world nettle eating competition at Dorset Nectar Cider Farm in Waytown. Participants eat leaves from 2ft-long stalks for half an hour and those who eat the longest length of nettles are crowned Nettle King and Nettle Queen
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Water bursts from the pipeline at the Upper Chhandi Khola hydropower project, which runs down the Chhandi river near Taap, where the honey collecting takes place
Market Closes for June 25^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1974, Texas Instruments and three of its engineers received a U.S. patent for their hand-held aluminum calculator. The gizmo could add, subtract, multiply and divide, and had a price tag of between $84.95 and $119.95.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 21,788.48 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 1.4%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.0%.
Ballard Power Systems Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.3%.
Today, 154 of 226 shares fell, while 69 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index fell 1.7%
* This month, the index fell 2.2%, heading for the biggest decline since October 2023
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.4% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 16.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and fell 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 on a trailing basis and 14.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.47t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.07% compared with 11.05% in the previous session and the average of 10.46% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -27.1126| -1.0| 7/44
Energy | -14.9099| -0.4| 11/30
Consumer Discretionary | -12.3845| -1.6| 2/11
Communication Services | -10.9422| -1.6| 1/4
Industrials | -8.2580| -0.3| 10/17
Financials | -7.1527| -0.1| 13/14
Real Estate | -3.4240| -0.8| 2/18
Utilities | -1.8300| -0.2| 4/11
Health Care | -0.4967| -0.8| 1/3
Consumer Staples | 8.9145| 1.0| 9/1
Information Technology | 17.4896| 1.0| 9/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -8.9180| -1.0| -31.2| -12.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -5.3950| -0.7| -55.7| 11.4
Dollarama | -5.0080| -2.0| -32.6| 29.3
Manulife Financial | 4.7690| 1.1| -7.8| 23.5
Couche-Tard | 5.4880| 1.4| -21.2| 1.9
Shopify | 5.4940| 0.7| 7.2| -14.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest technology companies lifted stocks, with Nvidia Corp. climbing 7% after a $430 billion selloff.
Equities extended their June advance as the giant chipmaker led gains in the “Magnificent Seven” cohort of mega-caps.
The company snapped a three-day rout that had pushed it into a technical correction.
In late trading, FedEx Corp. — a barometer of economic growth — jumped on a bullish forecast.
Treasuries barely budged after a $69 billion two-year US sale got the expected yield and good demand, kicking off this week’s trio of auctions.
US consumer confidence eased on a more muted outlook for business conditions, the job market and incomes.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she sees a number of upside risks to the inflation outlook.
Her colleague Lisa Cook said it will be appropriate to reduce rates “at some point,” adding that she expects inflation to improve gradually this year.
“We believe the bull market we are in isn’t going to be derailed until either we go into recession or the Fed changes interest-rate policy from potential cuts to actual hikes,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Expect volatility between now and the end of the year, but don’t expect the bull market to end without a change in the economy or Fed posture.”
The S&P 500 closed near 5,470.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.2%.
Carnival Corp. surged almost 9% on a solid outlook.
Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 4.23%.
Bitcoin topped $62,000.
The loonie fluctuated as inflation unexpectedly surged in Canada, a setback for policymakers as they weigh further rate cuts next month.
Investors are likely to keep piling into US stocks at the sign of any pullback as the Fed edges closer to reducing interest rates, according to Societe Generale SA, which anticipates the easing cycle will begin in early 2025.
Even after an about 15% rally year-to-date, strategists led by Manish Kabra expect the S&P 500 to “stay in buy-the-dip mode, with the next up leg coming closer to a Fed rate-cutting cycle.”
Bank of America Corp. said clients were net sellers of US equities for the first time in a month last week, with outflows led by hedge funds and institutions as retail investors snapped up shares.
Outflows by BofA clients totaled net $1.6 billion in the week ended June 21, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Tuesday in a note to clients.
At the sector level, technology and communications services led inflows.
Financials saw the largest outflows.
Meantime, Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs, are estimated to hold $130 billion worth of long positions in global equities, after selling $29 billion last week, and are likely to sell more in every market scenario this week, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Equity derivatives and flows specialist Cullen Morgan estimates that CTAs would sell $36 billion of equities, including $2.8 billion of S&P 500 futures, this week in a falling market, and $15 billion of stocks in a flat market.
Even if stocks were to rise, they are expected to sell $3 billion of stocks.
Nvidia’s recent selloff isn’t reflective of a worsening outlook for tech or the broader market, as other demand signals are positive, according to UBS.
“Nvidia’s correction shouldn’t be mistaken as a warning signal on either the structural investment case for AI or the broader equity outlook,” wrote Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management
To Neuberger Berman Group’s Steve Eisman, the chipmaker’s three-day plunge is no more than a blip.
The senior portfolio manager, best known for his short bet against subprime mortgages ahead of the global financial crisis, owns “a lot” of the chipmaker’s shares and considers it a long-term play that’s going to be relevant for years to come, he said Tuesday in an  interview on Bloomberg Television.

Corporate Highlights:
* Paramount Global is talking to potential partners for its streaming TV business internationally, saying a deal could “significantly transform” the online service.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. took the first step toward its seventh oil project in Guyana, a clear signal the supermajor intends to expand crude output from the South American nation into the next decade.
* Boeing Co. has offered to acquire Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. for about $35 a share in a deal funded mostly with stock, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Airbus SE is coming up short on the millions of parts that make up the company’s commercial aircraft, and the situation is getting worse rather than better for the world’s largest plane maker.
* Microsoft Corp. risks a hefty European Union fine after regulators accused the company of abusing its market power by bundling the Teams video-conferencing app to its other business software.
* OpenAI is taking additional steps to curb China’s access to artificial intelligence software, enforcing an existing policy to block users in nations outside of the territory it supports.

Key events this week:
* US new home sales, Wednesday
* China industrial profits, Thursday
* Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Thursday
* US durable goods, initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Nike releases earnings, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, Friday
* US PCE inflation, spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0714
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2687
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.3% to $62,041.31
* Ether rose 3.2% to $3,414.28
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.41%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.08%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $80.80 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,319.40 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Alex Nicholson, Jeran Wittenstein, Ryan Vlastelica, Alexandra Semenova, Aya Wagatsuma and Jason Scott.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
No amount of ability is of the slightest avail without honor. –Thomas Carlyle, 1795-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com