April 9th, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
April 9, 1860: The world’s first recording of the human voice is created.  French inventor Édouard-Léon Scott de Martinville used his phonautograph, the earliest known sound recording device.
1865: U.S. Civil War ends.
1866: Civil Rights Bill passed.
April 9, 2001: American Airlines’ parent company acquired bankrupt Trans World Airlines.  Go to article >>

Charles Baudelaire, writer, b.1821.

The best photos and videos of the April 8 total solar eclipse over North America
Millions of viewers across Mexico and North America witnessed a historic total solar eclipse on April 8. Here are some of the best photos from the day. Read More.

8,200-year-old campsite of ‘Paleo-Archaic’ peoples discovered on US Air Force base in New Mexico
Military personnel on Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico discovered artifacts, hearths and charcoal dating to the Archaic period that pinpoint the site of an early encampment. Read More.

When is the next total solar eclipse in North America?
After the total solar eclipse on April 8, North America will have to wait exactly eight years, 11 months and 22 days for its next glimpse of the sun’s corona. Read More

Thousands of hidden meteorites could be lost forever as they sink in Antarctic ice, taking their cosmic secrets with them
A new study warns that 5,000 meteorites could be sinking beneath Antarctica’s icy surface every year as a result of climate change, depriving scientists of vital information about our solar system. Read More.

Toss it or wash it: Household items that love to harbor bacteria
You may be shocked to learn the not-so-long shelf life of common items in your home. Here are some things you should regularly replace or clean ASAP.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Moshav Mattat, Israel
A fox and a calf approach each other in a forest in the the Upper Galilee
Photograph: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images

Grindavík, Iceland
The volcano has erupted three times in recent months, sending lava towards a nearby community
Photograph: Marco di Marco/AP

​​​​​​​A view of the eroded type of iceberg
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 9^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1867, the U.S. Senate ratified the Alaska Purchase, negotiated by Secretary of State William H. Seward with Russia’s government. For $7.2 million, the U.S. became the new owner of 586,412 square miles of what the public cynically called “Seward’s Icebox.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 22,361.78 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s little change.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%.
BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.4%.
Today, 159 of 224 shares rose, while 61 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 19.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.31% compared with 7.28% in the previous session and the average of 9.69% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 54.2513| 2.1| 46/3
Industrials | 13.7933| 0.4| 18/8
Information Technology | 8.8599| 0.5| 9/1
Communication Services | 8.4556| 1.2| 5/0
Financials | 7.9793| 0.1| 19/7
Real Estate | 6.7263| 1.4| 18/2
Energy | 6.7029| 0.2| 16/25
Utilities | 0.7011| 0.1| 11/4
Consumer Staples | -0.5827| -0.1| 7/4
Consumer Discretionary | -1.2514| -0.2| 8/5
Health Care | -4.1626| -5.7| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.9780| 1.2| -55.6| 27.9
Teck Resources | 9.3970| 4.6| 0.4| 19.1
Brookfield Corp | 7.5990| 1.4| -41.2| 5.0
Cameco | -3.6120| -1.8| -22.4| 13.8
Tilray Brands | -3.6870| -20.3| 65.2| -8.8
RBC | -4.6230| -0.3| -32.7| 4.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market rebounded and stocks closed higher, with traders positioning for key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
Treasuries climbed, with 10-year yields dropping from the highest levels in 2024.
Equities erased losses in the final stretch of New York trading, with Tesla Inc. leading gains in mega-caps.
Nvidia Corp. sank as Intel Corp. unveiled a new version of its artificial-intelligence chip.
Boeing Co. slid on a news report the Federal Aviation Administration is investigating whistleblower claims about safety issues with the 787 Dreamliner.
With no relevant economic data on schedule, traders positioned for Wednesday’s consumer price index.
Markets have been tempering bets on Fed cuts as US economic data remains strong, with officials pushing back against the need for easing.
“Investors are increasingly calling a June pivot into question, given the resiliency of the economy,” said Marta Norton, chief investment officer Americas at Morningstar Wealth.
“A delay is within the range of possible outcomes, particularly if we see March inflation data surprise to the upside.”
The S&P 500 finished above 5,200. US 10-year yields fell six basis points to 4.36%.
Oil dropped as traders assessed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
Gold rose to a fresh record.
The loonie underperformed ahead of the Bank of Canada decision on rates amid bets policymakers will turn more dovish.
“CPI is the critical number this week,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “The fear is that CPI has continued to be a thorn in the side of the Fed. But positioning is strongly bearish, and to quote some of the old traders we worked with in the past, ‘whatever hurts the most traders, when they are strongly positioned, is what happens’.”
The US inflation prints for March and April will play an outsized role in determining whether the Fed proceeds to cut rates in June, according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“We think the hurdle is not crazy severe and the odds are the data will come in good enough to go ahead,” Guha noted.
The swaps market late Tuesday was pricing in around 65 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 53% of the investors think the reaction to CPI Wednesday will be “risk-on.”
“Fifty percent of our survey respondents think inflation is ‘not’ on a Fed-friendly glide path back to target,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V. “In February, the majority thought it was.  The ‘yeses’ have been diminishing. Investors are not worried about Wednesday, but are concerned longer-term.”
To Mohamed El-Erian, the Fed’s longer-run inflation expectations should be revised higher as macro conditions — like supply chains and productivity — evolve.
“Inflation will be sticky,” the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist told Bloomberg Television. “But that shouldn’t stop the Fed, because the 2% inflation target is too tight for a global economy going through a major rewiring.”
Former Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard told Bloomberg Television he’s expecting three rate cuts this year as inflation moves toward the central bank’s target while the economy remains resilient.
“Cut timing hinges on inflation data,” according to Meghan Swiber at Bank of America Corp. “The market will be closely watching core goods and shelter for a read on the forward inflation trajectory.”
While bond yields are likely to remain volatile in the near term as markets shift views on the Fed’s path, UBS’s Chief Investment Office continues to see an attractive risk-reward outlook for quality bonds, including government and investment-grade corporate debt.
“We continue to favor quality bonds in our global portfolios and recommend investors lock in currently attractive bond yields,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We prefer those with maturities in the 1–10-year
bracket and see value in sustainable bonds.”
“Valuations are so stretched right now that anything less than perfection from economic data or any geopolitical noise can create substantial and quick selloffs,” said David Bahnsen at the Bahnsen Group.
Following the recent reset in rate-cut expectations, the setback in stock markets should prove temporary and is a buying opportunity, according to HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner.
“Risk assets certainly got a scare last week,” they wrote.  “We don’t think this will last, though.”
BofA clients were net sellers of US equities last week, with health-care shares logging their biggest outflow in the firm’s data going back to 2008 during the period.
Clients pulled $3.4 billion from US stocks in the week ended April 5, with single stocks seeing their largest exit since July, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall wrote in a note to clients.
To Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, a more tactical approach toward equities is prudent as we move into the second quarter.
“Although the market has shown some signs of broadening recently, we don’t have enough technical evidence to be convinced that a new leg higher can be sustained,” he noted.
“The combination of high interest rates, sticky inflation, a short-term extended equity market, and mediocre breadth makes the S&P 500 vulnerable to a 5%-10% pullback/correction in upcoming weeks/months.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. deliveries in the first quarter were the lowest since mid-2021, highlighting how far the plane-maker has to go on its road to recovery from a near-catastrophic accident early in January.
* Pfizer Inc.’s RSV shot produced immune reactions in young adults at higher risk of severe illness just as well as in older people, spurring the company’s plans to apply for wider US approval.
* Cisco Systems Inc. was resumed at overweight by Morgan Stanley, which said the maker of computer networking equipment’s  valuation discount is “too harsh.”
* Google unveiled a host of updates to its artificial intelligence offerings for cloud computing customers, emphasizing that the technology is safe and ready for use in the corporate realm, despite recent stumbles in consumer-facing
tools.
* Best Buy Co. is tapping artificial intelligence to speed up and reduce the number of in-home visits, part of the company’s efforts to use the technology to streamline operations.
* A hydro-power plant owned by Enel SpA’s renewable arm Enel Green Power in Northern Italy was rocked by a deadly explosion.

Key events this week:
* Japan PPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US CPI, Fed minutes, Wednesday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
* China PPI, CPI, Thursday
* Eurozone ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Thursday
* Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks, Thursday
* China trade, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo due to report results,  Friday.
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0856
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2675
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.75 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.8% to $68,994.26
* Ether fell 4.7% to $3,514.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.37%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.03%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $85.34 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,351.04 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If a businessman makes a mistake, he suffers the consequences.  If a bureaucrat makes a mistake, you suffer the consequences. –Ayn Rand, 1905-1982.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com