February 14, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Valentine’s Day.
It’s Ash Wednesday too.

February 14, 1876: Alexander Graham Bell and Elisha Gray apply separately for telephone patents, the Suprem Court eventually rules Bell the rightful inventor.
February 14^th, 2003: Dolly the sheep – the first mammal cloned from an adult – was put to death at age 6 due to premature aging and disease. Go to article >>

A cousin to the Mediterranean diet
Recent studies show the Atlantic diet, a cousin to the popular Mediterranean diet, may help reduce chronic disease.

Disneyland’s Mickey, Minnie, Donald and Goofy want to join a union
Disneyland employees who perform as various characters at the theme park are seeking to join the Actor’s Equity Association. 

Why is Valentine’s Day candy so expensive?
Some holiday editions of popular candies are priced higher than the regular versions of the sugary treats. Here are the reasons behind the markups.

California-size Antarctic ice sheet once thought stable may actually be at tipping point for collapse
Researchers have discovered the base of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which holds enough ice to raise sea levels by as much as 10 feet, may already be partially thawed. Read More.

Einstein’s predictions mean rare ‘gravitational lasers’ could exist throughout the universe, new paper claims
A new study combining two of Albert Einstein’s famous predictions suggests that ripples in space-time can combine into “gravitational lasers” that fire out of black holes in random directions across the cosmos. Read More.

Scientists may have accidentally found mystery magma reservoir in volcano less region of Alaska
While tracking seismic activity on Denali, scientists stumbled upon an anomaly that could indicate the presence of magma. Read More.

From the Late Night hosts:
“According to the latest numbers, Sunday night’s Super Bowl surpassed the moon landing to become the most-watched U.S. broadcast of all time. And it can’t be a coincidence that the two biggest broadcasts of all time were faked by the C.I.A.” — SETH MEYERS

“In the same statement, former President Trump said that his daughter-in-law Lara Trump should be the co-chair of the R.N.C. and that her husband Eric should be ‘ambassador to wherever’s farthest.’” — SETH MEYERS

“They’re entrusting the party’s future to the wise judgment of someone who married Eric.” — JIMMY FALLON

“I say, why stop with Lara? A future Trump administration could have Jared as chief of staff, Ivanka as ambassador to the U.N., and Don Jr. as the head of the D.E.A., the Drug Enjoyment Agency.” — STEPHEN COLBERT

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Inverclyde, Scotland
A rainbow arches across the sky behind Perch Lighthouse in the Clyde at Port Glasgow
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA
Nong Nooch, Thailand
Couples ride elephants during a Valentine’s Day celebration at a botanical garden
Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters
California, US
‘Lassen volcanic national park. Photo taken from our house in the foothills east of Redding following recent snowfall.’
Photograph: Ed Condit
Market Closes for February 14^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1946, the first general purpose computer was unveiled. The Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer was hailed by the New York Times as “an amazing machine which applies electronic speeds for the first time to mathematical tasks hitherto too difficult and cumbersome for solution.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.5% at 20,889.40 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2% on Dec. 13 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 2.3%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 169 of 225 shares rose, while 48 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%.
Goeasy Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 8.0%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain five times. The next day, it advanced four times for an average 0.5% and declined 0.5% once
* The index advanced 0.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 11.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.4% in the past 5 days and fell 0.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year * The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.26t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.52% compared with 10.63% in the previous session and the average of 9.78% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 111.0389| 1.7| 26/1
Industrials | 72.6955| 2.4| 21/5
Information Technology | 63.7624| 3.4| 10/0
Consumer Staples | 25.9624| 2.9| 7/4
Consumer Discretionary | 13.3061| 1.7| 13/0
Utilities | 11.5523| 1.5| 14/1
Real Estate | 8.6988| 1.8| 19/1
Materials | 8.3000| 0.4| 36/13
Communication Services | 3.6689| 0.5| 4/1
Health Care | 0.5890| 0.9| 3/0
Energy | -15.1290| -0.4| 16/22
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 37.2400| 4.2| 35.8| 5.9
RBC | 24.6100| 2.0| -22.1| -2.2
Intact Financial | 18.7400| 7.2| 158.6| 9.6
Suncor Energy | -1.4490| -0.4| 81.4| 0.6
Barrick Gold | -1.7180| -0.7| 22.4| -20.5
CAE | -6.1870| -9.8| 261.7| -10.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying sent stocks and bonds higher, following a slide triggered by an unexpected pickup in US inflation.
As investors awaited the next few economic reports that will be key in shaping the Federal Reserve’s rate path, Treasuries rebounded — led by gains in shorter maturities.
Equities closed near session highs, with big tech leading the way.
Nvidia Corp. topped Alphabet Inc.’s market value as the chip giant’s rally shows no signs of cooling.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — tumbled after a surge fueled by a reset in traders rate-cut bets.
“The stock market never moves higher without fits and starts along the way,” said Jeremy Straub at Coastal Wealth.
“The economy remains strong and isn’t in need of lower interest rates, which is ultimately supportive of stock prices.”
The S&P 500 reclaimed its 5,000 mark, while gains in the Nasdaq 100 topped 1%.
In late hours, Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of computer networking equipment, said it plans to cut thousands of jobs after a slowdown in corporate technology spending wiped out its sales growth.
Two-year US yields fell eight basis points to 4.58%.
Bitcoin climbed above $51,000. Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. says the stock-market bounce is giving investors a lot of relief from Tuesday’s “scare.” However, he points out that Treasury yields remain at or very-near their recent highs.
“Therefore, if those yields do not roll over very quickly, it’s something that could finally create somewhat impactful headwinds for the stock market,” Maley noted.
A Bloomberg index of global debt has dropped 3.5% this year, wiping out all of its gains since Dec. 12, the day before the Fed announcement that month.
Slower-than-forecast UK inflation numbers for January offered some relief to Treasuries on Wednesday, lowering the US 10-year yield after Tuesday’s 14-basis-point surge.
To Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research, the market remains a “show me” story.
“For the overall market to experience an official correction, we believe investors will need to see additional evidence that the Fed won’t cut in-line with expectations and/or the growth outlook is decelerating fast enough to spark
recession fears,” he noted.
“The ‘hot’ inflation data do not change our base case for a soft landing of slower growth, falling inflation, and 100 bps of Fed rate cuts this year, likely starting in the second quarter,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “But we are continuing to monitor the incoming data and the start of rate cuts could be delayed should the economic prints remain strong.”
The reversal in bond yields Wednesday also favored a rebound in big tech, the group that has powered the stock-market resurgence.
A day after the Nasdaq 100 popped above 18,000 for the first time, investors are once again grappling with what the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates means for tech valuations that are back at levels exceeded only during the pandemic-era rebound and the dot-com bubble.
Yet the Nasdaq’s 1.6% slide Tuesday was only the worst in two weeks, and a measure of implied volatility on the index remained firmly in calm territory.
But the prospect of sticky inflation leaves bulls clinging to a Goldilocks scenario that sees the American economy continue to thrive — without generating pricing pressures that force the Fed back into rate hikes.
From a technical perspective, Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott says there will possibly be further “choppy back-and-forth action” this week as more Fed officials are expected to chime in on inflation data ahead of the producer price index on Friday.
He’s keeping a close eye on the 4,920 level for the S&P 500, which was the pivot point from Tuesday’s session.
“A break below this threshold would trigger more selling pressures ahead,” he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Uber Technologies Inc. will buy back as much as $7 billion in shares to return capital to shareholders after reporting its first full year of operating profit and consistent positive free cash flow in 2023.
* Lyft Inc. issued a massive correction to its outlook for earnings margin in 2024, saying its margin is expected to expand by 50 basis points — not the 500 basis points written into an earnings presentation released earlier on Tuesday.
* Airbnb Inc. ended 2023 stronger than analysts’ had expected but suggested that demand in the current quarter wouldn’t be as robust as the last.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that topped estimates and executives said deposit growth is outpacing that of last year.

Key Events This Week:
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US Empire manufacturing, initial jobless claims, industrial production, retail sales, business inventories, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Thursday
* ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks, Thursday
* US housing starts, PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks, Friday
* ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0727
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2564
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 150.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $51,661.01
* Ether rose 5% to $2,763.94
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.34%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 4.04%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $76.62 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,990.66 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Edward Bolingbroke and Garfield Reynolds.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You don’t love because, you love despite; not for the virtues, but despite the faults. –William Faulkner, 1897-1962.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com