January 18, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
Winnie the Pooh day.
On Jan. 18, 1778: English navigator Captain James Cook reached the present-day Hawaiian Islands, which he named the “Sandwich Islands.”
January 18^th, 1886: Modern hockey is born.  The foundation of The Hockey Association in England formalized a modern version of the game that had already been played in ancient times.
2005: The world’s largest commercial jet, an Airbus A380 that can carry 800 passengers, was unveiled in Toulouse, France.  Go to article >>

A look at what else happened in history on January 18

Steve Forbes Is Selling His Winston Churchill Memorabilia Collection

How ChatGPT learned to lie and cheat in the pursuit of money.  Read More.

IBM’s new Heron chip inches us closer to a quantum reality.  Read More.

Sonar-enhanced “smart” glasses could protect privacy.  Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Glencoe. UK
Hill walkers, skiers and snowboarders on Meall a’ Bhuiridh in Glencoe
Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

Swans and seagulls on a frozen Tynemouth boating lake
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

​​​​​​​People walking in the snow at Derwent Water in Keswick
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA
Market Closes for January 18^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1956, Ford Motor went public after more than a half-century as a private company. The Ford Foundation sold 10.2 million shares at $64.50.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 20,756.73 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.2%.
Today, industrials stocks led the market higher, as 7 of 11 sectors gained; 118 of 225 shares rose, while 98 fell.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 5.7%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 1.1%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Oct. 27
* The index advanced 1.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 12, 2024 and 11% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 0.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.28t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 11.23% compared with 11.22% in the previous session and the average of 10.83% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | 42.9480| 1.5| 22/4
Financials | 25.8765| 0.4| 21/6
Consumer Staples | 19.8231| 2.2| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 4.4576| 0.6| 10/3
Materials | 3.1767| 0.1| 19/29
Communication Services | 3.0050| 0.4| 5/0
Real Estate | 1.3397| 0.3| 6/12
Health Care | -0.6360| -1.0| 2/2
Utilities | -3.9815| -0.5| 5/10
Information Technology | -15.5051| -0.8| 8/2
Energy | -18.7835| -0.5| 10/29
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Couche-Tard | 12.2400| 3.0| 24.4| 4.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.1000| 1.5| -21.3| -0.6
Canadian National | 10.0800| 1.5| -1.7| 1.1
Bank of Nova Scotia| -5.6470| -1.1| -4.7| -4.9
Enbridge | -7.1350| -1.0| 302.4| 1.2
Shopify | -32.7800| -3.6| 1.1| 1.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in some of the world’s largest technology companies fueled a rebound in stocks, with traders also weighing the latest economic data and Fed speak for clues on the US central bank’s next steps.
After a back-to-back slide, the S&P 500 rose as bond-market volatility abated.
The Nasdaq 100 closed at an all-time high as Apple Inc. climbed on an analyst upgrade and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s outlook lifted chipmakers on hopes for a global tech recovery in 2024.
Stock traders were unfazed by data underscoring labor-market strength at a time when Fed officials are looking for signs of a slowdown as they contemplate cutting rates.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic urged policymakers to proceed cautiously toward easing given the potential impacts of unpredictable events from elections to global conflicts.
His Philadelphia counterpart Patrick Harker said he expects inflation to keep ebbing toward the 2% target.
“Given the underlying strength of the US economy, it’s difficult to get too bearish at this point,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance. “The pervasive pessimism and doubt about the stock market and economy is a
contrarian signal and one of the best reasons to push against the crowd. Once the last skeptic has been converted, the market will be again vulnerable to a large shock, but we aren’t at that point yet.”
The S&P 500 closed at 4780.94, while the Nasdaq 100 1.5%.
A gauge of chipmakers climbed almost 3.5%.
Treasury two-year yields remained around 4.35%. Oil rose to $74 a barrel.
Bitcoin slid below $41,000.
The rebound in stocks suggests things are a lot calmer, but that’s not to say conditions will remain that way, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
He cited a growing perception that big central banks might not lower interest rates as much or as soon as the market thought they would.
“There’s clearly a desperate desire to cling on to the optimism that enabled such a strong end to the year, but unlike in that period, the data isn’t really playing ball,” said Craig Erlam at Oanda. “The releases we’ve seen so far this month have been fine and in the main, perfectly in keeping with the expectations people had coming into 2024. But is that enough?”
Blackstone Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman said he expects the Fed to lower rates and sees “animal spirits” returning to the markets as more investors make that bet too.
The Fed’s timing on rate declines won’t be clear, creating a “baffling effect” among investors, he told Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
Coming off its best winning streak in two decades, the S&P 500 has run into a roadblock in 2024, with its all-time closing record set two years ago remaining elusive.
But a technical gauge that measures the momentum to buy or sell stocks signals that bulls are still stepping in to snap up shares.
The index’s DVAN trend line — a proprietary divergence analysis that measures buying or selling pressure — has been on a buying streak since the S&P 500 bottomed in late October, with investors continuing to scoop up shares in multiple trading sessions heading into the closing bell in the past week.
To Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, while markets have stabilized after the recent weakness, a “bumpy path” is still expected.
“There are many conflicting market internals/technicals appearing on the charts right now — which should make for a choppy, range-bound glide path over the near term,” Wantrobski noted.
After being caught flat-footed early last year, fund managers have gone all-in on technology stocks — so much so that it’s sparking warnings that the Nasdaq 100 is looking ever more vulnerable to investor pullbacks.
Hedge funds hold the highest level of net-long Nasdaq 100 futures in nearly seven years, according to Societe Generale’s weighted analysis of data on the Nasdaq 100 Index futures and e-mini contracts provided by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
Meanwhile, a global fund manager survey from Bank of America Corp. this month showed the most-crowded trade is being long the “Magnificent Seven” stocks and other tech-related growth shares as a way to play the prospect of Fed easing.
Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. says that as much as he’s worried about the return of the “narrow stock market,” some hope does exist that it can broaden out.
The news coming out of the chip industry is “definitely bullish,” and “if it can cause a significant and sustainable move above the late-2023 highs, it’s going to be something that should push the stock market higher going forward,” Maley noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Humana Inc. shares plummeted after preliminary earnings missed estimates on higher-than-expected costs of members’ care and the Medicare-focused insurer forecast anemic enrollment growth for this year.
* Spirit Airlines Inc. tumbled again as investors took little solace from a pledge by the airline to strengthen its balance sheet in the wake of a failed takeover of the deep-discount carrier.
* Boeing Co. won an order for 150 Max jets from India’s newest airline, in a rare spot of good news for the US plane-maker since a piece of fuselage blew off an Alaska Airlines flight almost two weeks ago.
* Nelson Peltz said Walt Disney Co. is unable to heal “self-inflicted wounds” under current leadership and should be aiming for “Netflix-like margins,” days after the entertainment giant knocked back the activist’s bid for a seat on its board.
* Bayer AG is leaning against breaking up the conglomerate, rejecting pleas from investors frustrated by the company’s ongoing struggle to recover from its costly purchase of Monsanto, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Birkenstock Holding Plc’s growth targets failed to satisfy traders who were hoping for more from the German sandal maker.
* KeyCorp reported fourth-quarter profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates and predicted net interest income would decline this year.
* Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. named Stellantis NV executive Mark Stewart as chief executive officer following a pressure campaign by shareholder activist Elliott Investment Management.
* Discover Financial Services posted a 62% drop in fourth-quarter profit as the company continued to grapple with the fallout from compliance and risk-management lapses that led to the resignation of its chief executive officer last year.

Key events this week:
* Canada retail sales, Friday
* Japan CPI, tertiary index, Friday
* US existing home sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speak in Davos, Friday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0869
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2699
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.19 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.2% to $40,850.5
* Ether fell 3.1% to $2,446.11
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.35%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.1% to $74.07 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,022.08 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Isabelle Lee, Jeran Wittenstein and Elena Popina.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The greatest good you can do for another is not just to share your riches but to reveal to him his own. –Benjamin Disraeli, 1804-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com