January 4, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
January 4, 1865: New York Stock Exchange opens its first permanent headquarters at 10-12 Broad St., near Wall Street in New York City.
1974: President Richard Nixon refused to hand over tape recordings and documents subpoenaed by the Senate Watergate Committee.  Go to article >>

Isaac Newton, physicist, b.1643.
Louis Braille, inventor, b. 1809.
Jacob Grimm, author, b. 1785.

Names and dates of all the full moons of 2024
Find out exactly when to see this year’s full moons, including dates for supermoons and two lunar eclipses. Read More.

Solar eclipse 2024: 10 cities within the path of totality
On April 8, more than 31 million people in North America will witness a total solar eclipse, around a third of them in just 10 cities.  Full Story: Live Science (1/3).

10 of the coolest space missions in 2024
Ambitious new missions to the moon, Venus, Jupiter and more are planned for 2024. Here is a preview of the exciting year in space ahead. Read More.

Starbucks will now let customers use personal cups for nearly all orders
The coffee chain is inviting customers to bring their own cups, saying it will help reduce the company’s waste output.

The world’s most punctual airlines for 2023
In an era of inevitable flight delays, these airlines and airports around the world have the best on-time ratings.

Getting hearing aids may help you live longer, according to a new study
Not enough people wear hearing aids, which could be a problem for long-term health. These experts explain how the devices help and when to get them

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

California, US
The Quadrantids meteor shower over Pigeon Point light station in Pescadero
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Queen Margrethe II of Denmark waves from the golden carriage in Copenhagen as she attends the new year reception for the armed forces

​​​​​​​Kinross-shire, UK
‘Sheep grazing on snow-covered farmland near Crook of Devon.’
Photograph: Will Hector/GuardianWitness
Market Closes for January 4^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1865, the New York Stock Exchange opened its first permanent building at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets in Manhattan, after decades of shifting from one rented or borrowed space to another.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 20,871.35 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.6% on Dec. 27 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.3%.
Parkland Corp. had the largest increase, rising 3.7%.
Today, 128 of 225 shares rose, while 93 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%
* The index advanced 6.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Dec. 27, 2023 and 11.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.3t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.59% compared with 10.85% in the previous session and the average of 11.13% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 29.2795| 0.5| 24/3
Information Technology | 19.7826| 1.1| 4/6
Industrials | 15.9422| 0.6| 17/8
Consumer Staples | 4.4507| 0.5| 5/6
Real Estate | 1.4049| 0.3| 14/6
Health Care | 0.2081| 0.3| 2/2
Utilities | 0.1581| 0.0| 8/7
Communication Services | -0.5453| -0.1| 2/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.5481| -0.1| 6/7
Materials | -1.9619| -0.1| 31/19
Energy | -15.4112| -0.4| 15/26
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 18.4500| 2.3| -35.5| -4.9
TD Bank | 8.5620| 0.8| 117.6| 0.0
Couche-Tard | 5.1220| 1.3| -37.1| 1.6
Nutrien | -4.6000| -1.8| -57.1| -0.2
Cenovus Energy | -7.5830| -3.6| -17.6| -0.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.2430| -1.4| -69.8| 2.5
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields rose and tech stocks dipped ahead of Friday’s jobs report as traders try to gauge how soon and deeply the Federal Reserve can start cutting interest rates.
The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.5%, logging a five-day losing streak — the longest such run since December 2022 — as investors booked profits on last year’s winning tech stocks.
Apple Inc. tumbled after its second downgrade this week as Piper Sandler flagged concern about iPhone inventory levels.
The S&P 500 ended the session 0.3% lower after flipping between gains and losses.
Ten-year Treasuries flagged with yields hitting 4% after data showed US companies ramped up hiring in December and jobless claims came in below estimates.
The benchmark rate for everything from mortgages to loans has added about 12 basis points since the start of the year.
Swaps traders trimmed their bets on Fed easing after the data.
“There was nothing within the data that would suggest any urgency from policymakers to begin normalizing rates lower during the first quarter,” said Ian Lyngen a strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Traders will next turn to the monthly US jobs report on Friday as well as European inflation data to gauge whether central banks have room to start lowering interest rates.
Wagers on a March rate cut in the US have been dimming with the labor market still on sure footing and after the minutes on Wednesday from the Fed’s December meeting suggested rates could remain at restrictive levels “for some time.”
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 175,000 in December while the unemployment rate is seen edging up slightly to 3.8%, according to economists polled by Bloomberg.
“As it stands there’s been little to indicate that last month was when the labor market took a cyclical turn weaker,” BMO’s Ben Jeffery wrote. “We’re biased for Friday’s data to give the Fed cover to hold rates high for an extended period of time as the FOMC Minutes suggested.”
Swaps trader are now factoring in around a 65% chance for a quarter point rate cut by the Fed’s second meeting this year, they had seen a March rate cut as a surer bet last week.
“If tomorrow’s numbers show the same kind of strength and the economy keeps rolling along, it’s fair to wonder why the Fed would be in a rush to cut rates,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, expects the report to dampen bets on near-term cuts for January and March.
“Even with a recent loosening of financial conditions, risks for monthly job growth still skew more to the downside than upside, and markets are likely to be more reactive to weaker data,” she wrote. 

Bloomberg Economics View:
December’s nonfarm payroll report likely will show strength only in concentrated pockets of the labor market, with the details revealing weak underlying fundamentals. We also expect the unemployment rate to edge up. With hiring slowing quickly across most sectors, wage growth will moderate in December.  — Economists led by Anna Wong
West Texas Intermediate oil tumbled after stockpiles in Cushing rose to the highest level since July.
Oil prices have been whipsawed this week amid supply disruptions in Libya and the Red Sea, while Iran said attacks that killed almost 100 people in the country were carried out to punish its stance against Israel.
In currency markets, the yen weakened on speculation that it’ll be harder for the Bank of Japan to abolish negative interest rates after a powerful earthquake hit the country on New Year’s Day.
Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. changed its call for the BOJ rate decision this month and now sees it leaving current policy in place.
In corporate news, GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy sold about $33 million worth of shares in his biotech company Roivant Sciences Ltd.
Stock of Endeavour Mining Plc fell in Toronto trading after the firm fired its chief executive officer for serious misconduct.
McDonald’s Corp. shares weakened after the fast-food chain said it was being hurt by boycotts in the Middle East.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, PPI, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls/unemployment, factory orders, ISM services index, Friday
* Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0949
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2685
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 144.61 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $44,200.17
* Ether rose 2.2% to $2,276.38
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 3.99%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 2.12%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 3.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $72.35 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,043.69 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Edward Bolingbroke, Julia Fanzeres, Alex Nicholson, Sujata Rao and Rheaa Rao.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. –Marcus Aurelius, 121 AD-180 AD

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com