November 8, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

November 8 , 1519: Cortes conquers Mexico.
November 8, 1666: The Great Fire of London comes to an end, destroying a large portion of the city and prompting major urban reforms.
1971: The album “Led Zeppelin IV,” which included the song “Stairway to Heaven,” was released.  Go to article >>

Edmund Halley, astronomer, b. 1656.
Margaret Mitchell, writer, b.1900.
Bonnie Raitt, vocalist, b. 1949.

Moon to ‘smile’ at Venus this Thursday. Here’s how to see it.:  Look up early Thursday (Nov. 9) to witness one of the most beautiful celestial sights of 2023.  Read More.

3D map plots human brain-cell ‘antennae’ in exquisite detail:  A new map of 56,000 cells in the outer layer of the human brain could inform research into a whole class of diseases. Read More.

People magazine announces its new ‘Sexiest Man Alive’
This actor is best known for his heartthrob role in a TV medical drama.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
A walker strolls past autumn foliage during a rainy day in the city.  Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters.

Merritt Island, US
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on the Starlink 6-27 mission launches from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral space force station early on Wednesday, as seen from the island.  Photograph: Malcolm Denemark/Florida Today/AP.

​​​​​​​Shenyang, China
Winter swimming enthusiasts take selfies in Beiling Park before a dip in the lake.  Photograph: AFP/Getty Images.
Market Closes for November 8^th,2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1993: Boston Chicken went public in one of the hottest IPOs in Wall Street history. Less than five years later, it filed for bankruptcy. It was eventually sold to McDonald’s
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.2%, or 45.38 to 19,530.21 in Toronto.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.0%.
Pan American Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.9%.
Today, 139 of 227 shares fell, while 86 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 0.7%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index declined 0.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 4.5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.4% in the past 5 days and rose 1.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 on a trailing basis and 13.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.31% compared with 15.41% in the previous session and the average of 14.39% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -44.7804| -2.0| 12/40
Energy | -42.9638| -1.2| 5/35
Communication Services | -4.5469| -0.6| 2/3
Utilities | -1.9220| -0.2| 2/13
Health Care | -0.5193| -0.9| 0/4
Real Estate | 0.2317| 0.1| 10/10
Consumer Discretionary | 0.3916| 0.1| 7/7
Consumer Staples | 3.7435| 0.4| 8/2
Financials | 12.7359| 0.2| 15/13
Industrials | 15.6850| 0.6| 17/9
Information Technology | 16.5485| 1.0| 8/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.5100| -2.0|n/a | 14.5
Barrick Gold | -9.0770| -3.4|n/a | -9.7
Suncor Energy | -7.4130| -1.8|n/a | 0.8
Constellation Software | 5.7110| 1.4|n/a | 41.3
Intact Financial | 11.2900| 4.7|n/a | 5.5
Shopify | 13.7000| 1.9|n/a | 84.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw their November rally fade, with traders awaiting Jerome Powell’s take on Wall Street’s dovish narrative.
Treasuries rose in a busy week for government sales.
Amid signs of buyer exhaustion, the S&P 500 rose only 0.1%, while still notching its eighth straight up day.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — saw its longest slide since October 2015.
Ten-year yields fell below 4.5% after a $40 billion auction — despite mixed metrics, which included a slightly higher-than-anticipated rate of 4.519%: a sign that demand fell short of expectations.
Thirty-year rates hit the lowest in over a month.
Brent oil settled under $80.
Treasury sales are exerting a growing sway over stocks.
That’s the take from Citigroup Inc. data showing the S&P 500 has moved about 1% in either direction on auction days since the start of 2022, eclipsing the prior decade’s average.
Their analysis leaves traders on high alert for Thursday’s $24 billion sale of 30-year bonds.
Wall Street also kept a close eye on Fed-speak.
Speaking briefly on Wednesday, Powell didn’t comment on the outlook for rates.
He’ll have more time to express his views Thursday during a panel on policy challenges.
“It will be interesting to hear if he makes any comments about the recent move in longer-term interest rates,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “If his tone is a bit more hawkish than it was last week, it could be a catalyst for the kind of ‘breather’ in the markets we’re thinking could/should take place.”
Swap traders are pricing in almost no chance of an interest-rate increase in December, and predict the current level of the Fed’s benchmark rate — 5.25% to 5.5% — will mark the peak of the tightening cycle.
Even if central banks were of the view that rates could fall next year, it would be unrealistic to expect them to say so at this stage as it would confuse and undermine their message that rates must stay higher for longer, according to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.
“We are continuing to see sluggish trade in equity markets on Wednesday, with investors battling hawkish commentary from central banks against downbeat economic expectations and speculation around rate cuts next year,” Erlam noted.
UBS Group AG strategists expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 around 4,600 points — implying an upside of only about 5% from current levels — as they see weaker growth hurting revenues.
Profit margins face headwinds including negative operating leverage, sticky wages, deteriorating pricing power and rising interest expense, Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey wrote.
Meantime, Hoisington Investment Management Co.’s chief economist Lacy Hunt sees the recent retreat in Treasury yields as the start of a rally that will gain steam once the US economy careens into a hard landing.
For the bond market, “the cloud is breaking because the economy is heading into a hard landing,” Hunt said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “But it’s a process that will take time. The US economy has very serious difficulties” that will “be with us for a long time in the future.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Walt Disney Co., embroiled in another fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz, posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and said it will seek an additional $2 billion in cost savings.
* Arm Holdings Plc, delivering the first earnings report since its initial public offering, gave a disappointing sales forecast as the company contends with a smartphone slump and uncertain timing for new licensing deals.
* Lyft Inc. reported third-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ estimates while giving a tepid sales outlook for the holiday period.
* Instacart reported better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter showing modest growth in online grocery orders and assuaging some investor concerns about the health of its underlying business.
* Eli Lilly & Co. won US approval for its diabetes drug to treat obesity, unlocking blockbuster sales potential in a market that’s expected to hit $100 billion by 2030.

Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
* BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index was unchanged
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0710
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2288
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.99 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $35,630.73
* Ether rose 0.2% to $1,896.3
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to
4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $75.59 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1% to $1,949.67 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Elena Popina, Elizabeth Stanton, Alexandra Semenova and Denitsa Tsekova.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As always,

Carolann
With humbleness, kindness, and self-sacrifice, you will take the weapon from any enemy.
Any fire dies if there is insufficient wood. –Buddhist  wisdom.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com