November 2, 2023

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
All Souls Day, Roman Catholic.
Day of the Dead, Mexico: The time to know again what the ancients knew – the spirit lives on.  Remember the good times in our lives with those who have departed and drink a full cup of gratitude for all the inspiration and love that the departed poured into our lives.  Light a candle.  Say a prayer.

November 2, 1968: The first computer mouse is demonstrated publicly by Douglas Engelbart, revolutionizing human-computer interaction.
November 2, 1947: Howard Hughes piloted his huge wooden airplane, the Spruce Goose, on its only flight, which lasted about a minute over Long Beach Harbor in California.  Go to article >>

Centuries-old skeleton with prosthetic fingers unearthed
The skeleton of a middle-aged man who died between 1450 and 1620 was found in Germany with a prosthetic hand with four metal fingers still attached to his left arm. Read More.

15 signs the sun is gearing up for its explosive peak
Experts believe the upcoming solar maximum could be more active and arrive sooner than previously expected. Here are the signs that they are right. Read More.
PHOTOS OF HE DAY

Penmarc’h, France
Sea foam blows in the streets of Penmarch in western France as Storm Ciarán hits the region.  Photograph: Fred Tanneau/AFP/Getty.

New York, US
Visitors take photographs of a painting by Pablo Picasso, Femme à la montre (1932), during a photocall at Sotheby’s auction house showcasing the highlights of the Emily Fisher Landau collection.
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty

​​​​​​​Paris, France
The DJ act Super Computer opens for Oliver Tree during his Alone in a Crowd tour at L’Olympia.  Photograph: Kristy Sparow/Getty
Market Closes for November 2^nd, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1920, Pittsburgh’s Westinghouse Electric and Manufacturing Company made what is widely recognised as the first commercial radio broadcast. Under the call sign KDKA, Leo Rosenberg announced live returns of the Harding-Cox presidential election.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 2.9%, or 547.34 to 19,626.34 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 3.3% on Nov. 10, 2022.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 187 of 227 shares rose, while 37 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 21.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain once
* This year, the index rose 1.2%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 4.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended April 10
* The index advanced 1.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.8% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 on a trailing basis and 13.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.29% compared with 13.81% in the previous session and the average of 14.19% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 164.8049| 2.9| 25/3
Information Technology | 134.7526| 9.6| 11/0
Energy | 91.4121| 2.5| 32/7
Industrials | 33.5110| 1.3| 21/5
Utilities | 33.1379| 4.3| 15/0
Communication Services | 24.3066| 3.3| 5/0
Materials | 19.3259| 0.9| 33/17
Consumer Staples | 17.1615| 2.0| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 15.7050| 2.2| 12/2
Real Estate | 11.5010| 2.6| 19/2
Health Care | 1.7148| 3.1| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 120.5000| 21.3|n/a | 74.6
RBC | 34.3400| 3.2|n/a | -9.8
TD Bank | 29.7600| 3.0|n/a | -9.0
Barrick Gold | -1.9630| -0.7|n/a | -4.9
First Majestic | -2.2250| -15.4|n/a | -45.9
Colliers International | -2.6960| -7.7|n/a | -4.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street pushed the stock market higher a day after the Federal Reserve hinted it may be done with interest-rate hikes, with traders now eagerly awaiting Friday’s jobs report.
In a rally also fueled by oversold conditions and positioning, the S&P 500 added almost 2% — its best session since April.
The market’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — fell below 16 and breached a key technical level.
Tesla Inc. led gains in mega-caps.
Apple Inc. rose ahead of its results.
Long-term Treasuries outperformed, with 30-year yields down 13 basis points to 4.8%.
The dollar dropped.
The pound gained as the Bank of England pushed back on talk of rate cuts.
Oil topped $82.
In the run-up to the jobs data, a report showed US labor productivity advanced by the most in three years, helping to alleviate the inflationary impact of recent wage growth.
Continuing jobless claims rose for a sixth straight week, indicating those losing their jobs are starting to have more trouble finding new ones.
Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls rose by 180,000 in October following September’s gain of 336,000.
“Friday payrolls will be critical,” said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “If we get a weak report, rates will continue their move lower, but financial conditions may not loosen further since a recession may look more imminent. A strong report and then the market will watch the Fed nervously to see if they will react.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 52% of investors expect Friday’s data to be risk-on — and only 14% think it will be risk-off.
This is the most optimistic investors have been since the firm started the surveys a year ago.
In addition, 41% of those polled think average hourly earnings will be the most-important indicator, followed by payrolls.
While the Federal Open Market Committee kept open the prospect of additional policy action on strong economic growth, Jerome Powell speculated that Treasury yields at lofty levels could instead help the central bank keep monetary conditions restrictive to wring out the inflationary excesses of this business cycle.
“From our vantage point, the FOMC signaled the conclusion of the rate hike cycle,” said Spencer Hakimian at Tolou Capital Management.
Combined with the better-than-expected data in the Treasury quarterly refunding announcement (QRA), “and we believe tailwinds exist across the curve in Treasuries going into year-end.”
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, market players are front-running the possibility of rate cuts in the near future amid bets the Fed is done tightening — even though Powell said easing is not currently being discussed.
In fact, a growing chorus of investors is cautioning against prematurely declaring that the US bond market’s brutal rout is finally over for good.
Hedge fund K2 Asset Management is predicting that benchmark 10-year Treasury yields will rise back to 5% — from around 4.6% — while Franklin Templeton says they could peak at 5.25% — a level last seen in 2007.
At Citadel Securities, global head of rates trading Michael de Pass says the Treasury market remains “very much dependent on the data,” leaving the risk that the market’s euphoric mood could change.
And Barclays Plc co-head of global markets Stephen Dainton said it is “very unlikely” the Fed is done tightening policy.
“We got a hold from the Fed that was mostly hawkish — but just dovish enough to keep a lid on future tightening expectations,” said Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Whatever the market thinks the Fed thinks, it will still come down to the data and that makes Friday’s jobs data all the more important. We continue to believe that the US economy remains robust enough to require  further tightening.”
Another potential big driver of trading will be Apple’s earnings after the closing bell.
Hopes that Apple’s results will help salvage a mixed earnings season for mega-cap tech stocks are being clouded by one issue in particular: China.
Risks related to the country have mounted for the heavily-exposed iPhone maker since Apple last reported, adding to Wall Street’s caution ahead of its results — along with tepid growth trends, a high multiple, and the rise in interest rates.
Investors have punished stocks where earnings don’t live up to expectations.
Options positioning in the stock has turned bearish ahead of the results, according to Citigroup.

Corporate Highlights:
* Qualcomm Inc. jumped after the largest seller of smartphone chips gave a bullish revenue forecast.
* Starbucks Corp.’s revenue beat expectations in the latest sign that diners aren’t quitting their lattes even in tough economic conditions.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. surged after the company reported the fourth consecutive quarter of profitability and highest earnings since its founding 20 years ago.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. climbed after the payments giant boosted its profit outlook and reported increased spending on its platforms.
* ConocoPhillips jumped after the oil explorer boosted investor payouts and raised its production outlook.
* Eli Lilly & Co. beat Wall Street’s estimates for third-quarter revenue as its star diabetes drug Mounjaro outran expectations.
* Moderna Inc. slid after it said it expected revenue to fall sharply next year to well below what analysts were expecting.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. tumbled after the fitness company said it expects revenue to fall even more steeply than feared this quarter.
* Beyond Meat Inc. cut its revenue forecast for the second time in three months amid sagging demand for its plant-based proteins.
* Airbnb Inc. gave a disappointing outlook for the fourth quarter, citing “greater volatility” in the economic environment that it expects will slow demand for travel.
* Six Flags Entertainment Corp. agreed to merge with Cedar Fair Entertainment Co. in an all-stock deal that will value the combined businesses at about $8 billion including debt and will create one of the biggest theme park operators in the Americas.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0623
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2209
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 150.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $35,021.64
* Ether fell 2.3% to $1,812.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.67%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $82.37 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,985.31 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com