October 30, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

October 30, 1938: Orson Welles broadcasts his radio play “The War of the Worlds,” causing widespread panic and controversy.

2003: Lebron James made his NBA debut with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Go to article >>

Significant Numbers:
2: hours spent each day on TikTok by American youth between 11 and 17 years old.  A new report suggests teens prefer video-sharing apps because they are passive – users can scroll aimlessly without reading or writing.

95: years since a Norwegian writer last won  the Nobel Prize in literature.  That interlude was broken this year by Norwegian author and playwright Jon Fosse, who focuses on themes including aging, love, and art.

61.48: Degrees (in Fahrenheit) recorded in September, the hottest global average ever measured.  The summer broke records worldwide as well, but experts say September’s record is the bigger climate anomaly.
Sources: Common Sense Media, NY times, Associated Press.

Severe drought reveals more than 100 rock carvings in Amazonian tributary that may be up to 2,000 years old
Engravings of human faces, animals and geometric shapes were spotted on normally submerged rocks after more than half of the Negro River dried up. Read More.

This Florida town full of mediums has been luring believers, the curious and the skeptical for more than a century
Roughly 50 miles from Orlando’s theme parks, the town of Cassadaga is home to a Spiritualist camp where mediums say they can communicate with the dead. Of course, CNN took a trip to see what the chatter is all about.

Five ways to nourish your brain
Nutritional psychiatrist and personal chef Dr. Uma Naidoo served up these tips for eating to improve brain function and mood.

This massive ‘floating’ museum is straight out of science fiction
A building of this size and complexity would typically take years to build, but this impressive museum went from concept to completion in just 12 months.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Edinburgh, UK:  The Scott Monument framed by trees in autumn colours in the city’s Princes Street Gardens.  Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA.

Hollywood, California, US:  guests at the Dia De Los Muertos celebration at Hollywood Forever.  Photograph: Emma McIntyre/Getty Images.

Galway, Ireland: Members of the Macnas performance group appear in their annual Halloween parade, called Cnámha La Loba, which was inspired by the legend of a wolf-woman who collected and preserved bones of animals, humans, and gods.  Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters.
Market Closes for October 30^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1989, Mitsubishi Estate agreed to pay $846 million for 51% of Rockefeller Center in New York City, setting off mass hysteria among U.S. pundits who claimed America’s patrimony was being scooped up by the Japanese. By 1996, the Mitsubishi affiliate was so financially troubled that it sold Rockefeller Center for less than $400 million.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 18,856.76 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on Oct. 16 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.7%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 150 of 227 shares rose, while 75 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%. BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 6.4%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 2.7%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* This month, the index fell 3.5%
* The index declined 3.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 6.2% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 9.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 0.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1% in the past 5 days and fell 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 on a trailing basis and 13.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year * The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.60% compared with 13.33% in the previous session and the average of 14.20% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 76.4202| 1.4| 25/3
Industrials | 37.3151| 1.5| 23/2
Information Technology | 24.8752| 1.9| 10/1
Consumer Staples | 20.6303| 2.5| 11/0
Utilities | 12.9900| 1.8| 15/0
Communication Services | 9.3413| 1.3| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 4.7607| 0.7| 8/5
Energy | 4.2421| 0.1| 18/22
Real Estate | 3.3170| 0.8| 19/2
Health Care | 0.3219| 0.6| 4/0
Materials | -74.8428| -3.3| 13/39
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 16.1000| 1.5|n/a | -13.5
TD Bank | 13.2100| 1.4|n/a | -12.0
Constellation Software | 11.2200| 3.1|n/a | 33.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | -6.2930| -2.7|n/a | -6.5
Franco-Nevada | -21.7300| -8.5|n/a | -5.5
First Quantum Minerals | -31.2300| -28.5|n/a | -29.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose, Treasuries fell and oil slid 3.5% as Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza appeared less extensive than investors had feared.
The yen climbed on a news report the Bank of Japan may raise a cap on bond yields.
The S&P 500 added 1.2%, the most since August.
Amazon.com Inc. led gains in the beaten-down mega-cap space, though Tesla Inc. bucked that trend — dropping about 5%.
Equities are still on track for their third monthly slump — the longest since March 2020.
Ten-year US yields rose four basis points to 4.88%.
The Treasury cut its estimate for federal borrowing in the quarter to $776 billion.
The dollar dropped.
Oil erased its gains since the war in the Middle East began as Israel faces growing pressure to limit its bombardments to help hostage negotiations, keeping the conflict limited entering its fourth week.
West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 4.3%, with losses accelerating after crude slipped below technical support levels near $82 a barrel.
“Israel moved forces into Gaza over the weekend, but the operation isn’t as large as feared yet — and that’s helping to slightly reduce geopolitical anxiety,” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter.
“This week will be a very busy one as we get a Fed decision and important economic/inflation data, as well as the final ‘big’ week of earnings.”
Aside from geopolitical jitters, equities were hit this month by a surge in bond yields and disappointing earnings from some big techs.
Those concerns drove the S&P 500’s 14-day Relative Strength Index below 30 last week — which is seen by some on Wall Street as a sign of an oversold market.
John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., says he remains constructive on equities.
“We view the three-month corrective occurrence experienced by stocks since August as likely near an end,” he noted.  “Valuations have come down substantially across the sectors and resilience remains the operative word for the US economy.”
Yet Stoltzfus, a long-time stock market bull, lowered his year-end forecast for the US equity benchmark to 4,400 from 4,900, previously the highest among forecasters tracked by Bloomberg.
The gauge closed at 4,166.78 on Monday.
He says there’s not enough time for the index to reach his previously projected level as geopolitical risk and interest-rate worries afflict equities.

Earnings Bets
Wall Street expectations for double-digit earnings growth are “divorced from the risks” posed by tightening financial conditions and rising geopolitical tensions, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
Investors hoping for a boost to stocks by the end of the year will be disappointed, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
“Chances of a fourth-quarter rally have fallen considerably,” said Wilson, who was once again named as the best portfolio strategist by the latest Institutional Investor survey. “Narrowing breadth, cautious factor leadership, falling earnings revisions and fading consumer and business confidence tell a different story than the consensus, which sees a rally into year-end.”
US blue-chip companies unleashed a wave of bond sales on Monday as borrowers look to sell new debt in a week jam-packed with bond auctions, central bank meetings and fresh economic data.
Morgan Stanley, Hyundai Capital America and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. were among 12 high-grade issuers in the market, marking the busiest day for issuance since companies brought 20 deals on Sept. 5 after the Labor Day holiday, data compiled by Bloomberg News shows.

Corporate Highlights:
* McDonald’s Corp. sales and profits beat expectations in the third quarter thanks to higher prices and movie-inspired ads, but US customer traffic dipped for the first time this year.
* Western Digital Corp. will split into two separate, publicly traded companies after talks to merge with Kioxia Holdings Corp. fell apart.
* Broadcom Inc. and software maker VMware Inc. said their $61 billion merger is on track to close before a November deadline, working to reassure investors while China drags out its review of the deal.
* HSBC Holdings Plc announced a fresh buyback program and hinted at the potential for further returns to investors despite announcing profits for the third-quarter that missed market expectations.
* General Motors Co. reached a tentative contract agreement with the United Auto Workers union, according to people familiar with the matter, bringing an end to a six-week-old strike that had upended US automobile production and cost the industry billions of dollars.
* Ford Motor Co.’s tentative agreement to end the six-week strike by the United Auto Workers includes $8.1 billion in investments at both internal combustion and electric vehicle plants, as well as record raises.

Key events this week:
* China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
* Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Tuesday
* Eurozone CPI, GDP, Tuesday
* US Conference Board consumer confidence, employment cost index, Tuesday
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Wednesday
* All Saints holiday in much of Europe, Wednesday
* Treasury quarterly refunding announcement, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds news conference, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of England interest rate decision. Governor Andrew Bailey holds news conference, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
All bad precedents begin with justifiable measures. –Julius Caesar, 100 BC-44 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com