October 17, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
October 17^th, 1915: Albert Einstein publishes his theory of general relativity, revolutionizing our understanding of gravity.
On Oct. 17, 1931, mobster Al Capone was convicted of income tax evasion and sentenced to 11 years in prison. He was released in 1939.  Go to article >>

1989: San Francisco earthquake.

Elusive Planet Nine could be an alternative form of gravity masquerading as a planet, study claims
Astronomers suggest that an alternative concept of gravity, known as modified Newtonian dynamics, could explain orbital inconsistencies that have previously pointed to the existence of a ninth planet in the solar system. Read More.

Mysterious ‘fountain of youth’ near Milky Way’s central black hole is full of newborn stars that shouldn’t exist
New James Webb Space Telescope observations might be able to explain why clusters of young stars keep turning up near the Milky Way’s central black hole. Read More.

City-size comet racing toward Earth regrows ‘horns’ after massive volcanic eruption
The cryovolcanic comet will make its closest approach to Earth next year. Read More.

Seagulls close Venice airport
A 200-strong flock of seagulls recently caused quite a bird-en at Venice Marco Polo Airport in Venice, Italy, after they congregated at the end of the runway.

‘Mona Lisa’ has a rare compound that suggests Leonardo da Vinci was ahead of his time
A rare compound discovered within the “Mona Lisa” suggests Leonardo da Vinci may have been the first to use a technique previously found in later paintings, a new study suggests.

Disney celebrates 100-year anniversary with short film
The walls of the company’s animation studio come alive in this new short film featuring 543 Disney characters.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
Pedestrians pass The Quiet Enchanting, an installation of digitally generated artworks by the design studio Superflux and King’s College’s King’s Culture team, displayed along the newly pedestrianised Strand in Aldwych. The project has been inspired by Superflux’s Cascade Inquiry research initiative, and supports King’s climate and sustainability action plan.  Photograph: Guy Bell/Shutterstock.

Falmouth, UK
A swimmer makes his way into the waves for a morning dip in rough seas at Gyllyngvase Beach as strong winds whipped the Cornish coast.
Photograph: Hugh R Hastings/Getty Images

Anna swimming during a rain squall on her birthday. Bohuslän coast, Sweden, 2023
‘Photography in its simplest form: Anna running past me, the tropic-sized raindrops hammering down on the boat’s cockpit canvas. She throws her clothes off. I grab my camera. She dives in head-first, laughing, floating in a mix of salt water and euphoria – and I get to save this moment that embodies everything I love.’ Jonas Bendiksen
Photograph: Jonas Bendiksen/Magnum Photos
Market Closes for October 17^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1983, Hong Kong officials started pegging the city’s currency to the U.S. dollar. The peg has endured, despite a series of challenges, and the Hong Kong dollar is now permitted to trade at between 7.75 and 7.85 to the greenback.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 72 to 19,692.80 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Sept. 25.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest increase, rising 5.4%.
Today, 145 of 227 shares rose, while 81 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 1.6%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 5.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 6.4% above its low on Oct. 21, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1% in the past 5 days and fell 4.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 on a trailing basis and 14.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.11t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 14.05% compared with 14.05% in the previous session and the average of 13.71% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 43.9256| 1.9| 43/9
Information Technology | 12.7902| 0.9| 9/2
Financials | 7.3773| 0.1| 16/12
Consumer Discretionary | 6.7649| 1.0| 13/1
Energy | 6.2022| 0.2| 28/12
Consumer Staples | 4.0834| 0.5| 7/4
Health Care | 1.4343| 2.5| 2/2
Real Estate | 0.9653| 0.2| 13/8
Utilities | -1.7205| -0.2| 3/12
Communication Services | -4.2719| -0.6| 0/5
Industrials | -5.5549| -0.2| 11/14
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 11.4500| 1.9|n/a | 57.2
Barrick Gold | 10.5500| 4.0|n/a | -3.5
Cameco | 6.6010| 4.4|n/a | 67.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -2.7340| -0.4|n/a | -2.2
RBC | -6.5360| -0.6|n/a | -9.2
Enbridge | -10.4800| -1.6|n/a | -16.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields climbed and stocks struggled after solid economic reports reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Two-year US yields hit the highest since 2006, while those on 10-year notes jumped 13 basis points to 4.83%.
Swap contracts tied to Fed rate decisions showed traders are pricing in more than 60% odds that policymakers will raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point in January after holding steady
in November.
A move in December is considered possible, but less likely than January.
The S&P 500 erased gains, led by losses in its most-influential group — technology.
Nvidia Corp. slumped as the US is restricting the sale of chips the company designed for the Chinese market.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell amid a 33% slide in profit.
Bank of America Corp. advanced after traders reported their best third-quarter results in more than a decade.
“Good news about the economy is once again bad news, since it will keep policymakers on the fence on delivering more tightening,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda. “It seems the US economy isn’t ready to head into a recession just yet.”
Retail sales exceeded all forecasts and industrial production strengthened last month, fresh evidence of a resilient American consumer whose spending is helping stabilize manufacturing.
The reports prompted a slew of economists, from Goldman Sachs to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, to boost their tracking estimates for third-quarter gross domestic product.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said policymakers “have time” to work out whether they can hold interest rates steady or if they need to raise them further to get inflation to policymakers’ 2% goal.
Traders also kept a close eye on the latest geopolitical events, with President Joe Biden set to travel to Israel Wednesday as a show of solidarity after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas — which is designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union.
The Israeli military struck the south of the Gaza Strip after ordering people to seek refuge there.
The Bank of Israel underscored the urgency of steadying the shekel following its slide to an eight-year low, reversing expectations among traders who bet on a big interest-rate cut as soon as next week.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan is likely to discuss raising its inflation projection for fiscal year 2023 and 2024 at its policy meeting later this month, extending the period in which it sees prices hitting or exceeding its 2% goal, according to people familiar with the matter.
Following news of the central bank price view, the yen briefly strengthened.
Corporate Highlights
* U.S. Bancorp surged after the Fed released it from a commitment to meet requirements for larger banks by the end of next year.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp. reported earnings that beat estimates, as higher interest rates boosted the firm’s revenue.
* Johnson & Johnson raised its 2023 revenue outlook as some older drugs beat sales estimates, including its bestseller Stelara that will face generic competition next year.
* Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc. called Choice Hotels International Inc.’s takeover offer “underwhelming,” rejecting a proposal that would create a dominant player in the budget hotel space.
* Dollar Tree Inc. climbed as Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on the retailer to buy from neutral, based on its strong earnings growth potential.
Key events this week:
* Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks, Wednesday
* China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, Wednesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Tesla earnings, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve issues Beige Book economic survey, Wednesday
* Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and New York Fed President John Williams speak at separate events, Wednesday
* Australia unemployment, Thursday
* Japan trade, Thursday
* China property prices, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, leading index, Thursday
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speak at different events, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0575
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2183
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 149.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $28,531.38
* Ether fell 1.5% to $1,564.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 13 basis points to 4.83%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 2.88%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $87.31 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Fear is one of the greatest problems in life.  A mind that is caught in fear lives in confusion, in conflict,
and therefore must be violent, distorted and aggressive. -Jiddu Krishnamurti, 1895-1986.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com