October 13, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

On Oct. 13, 1943, Italy declared war on Germany, its one-time Axis partner.  Go to article >>
On October 13, 1917, in Fátima, Portugal, the Miracle of the Sun unfolds.  Amidst rain, the sun dances, casting radiant colors before thousands.  This mystical event, linked to prophecies given to three children, sparks debate in religious circles.

Paul Simon, musician, b. 1941.
Lenny Bruce, comic, b. 1925.
Today is Friday the 13th
Whether you’re superstitious or not, you may be surprised by the cultural origins of the supposedly unlucky day.

How to watch the ‘ring of fire’ solar eclipse
On Saturday, a “ring of fire” annular solar eclipse will put on a show for parts of the western and central US. Here’s how to watch.

What to know before seeing Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in theaters
A concert film poses new questions for moviegoers used to sitting down and staying quiet. Are you allowed to get up out of your seat and dance? What about singing along? Here are the do’s and don’ts at concert movies.

‘Five times the Super Bowl’: Why India vs Pakistan is a sporting rivalry like no other
Some experts are estimating a record half a billion viewers could tune into Saturday’s India-Pakistan match at the Cricket World Cup. Here’s why.

WWII catapult designed to launch bomber planes unearthed
Archaeologists in England have excavated an experimental catapult designed to launch World War II bomber planes into the air. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hatay, Turkey
A giant biodegradable artwork between earthquake-damaged buildings by the French-Swiss artist Guillaume Legros.  Photograph: LeSabe/AFP/Getty.

Leeds, UK
People view Evanescent, a light installation by the artist Atelier Sisu, which forms part of Light Night Leeds.  Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

​​​​​​​Marseille, France
A 3D image of the wreck of the French cargo vessel Douaisien, which was requisitioned for troop evacuation and sunk during the Dunkirk evacuation.  Photograph: DRASSM/AFP/Getty
Market Closes for October 13^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1857, 18 banks in New York suspended payments on loans after the Ohio Life Insurance & Trust, gambling on the midwestern land boom, went bust. “The telegraph was spreading half-truths and wild rumors over the whole country,” said chronicler James Medbery.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.2%, or 37.38 to 19,462.86 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.6%.
Lithium Americas Corp. had the largest drop, falling 9.8%.
Today, 131 of 227 shares fell, while 95 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 0.4%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 4.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.6% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 8.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 on a trailing basis and 13.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.09t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 14.38% compared with 14.38% in the previous session and the average of 13.41% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -47.7601| -0.8| 7/21
Information Technology | -32.3042| -2.2| 0/11
Industrials | -17.9363| -0.7| 2/24
Utilities | -14.2234| -1.8| 1/14
Consumer Staples | -6.6215| -0.8| 3/8
Real Estate | -5.2071| -1.1| 1/20
Consumer Discretionary | -3.9565| -0.6| 4/10
Communication Services | -1.8533| -0.3| 2/3
Health Care | -0.2603| -0.5| 2/1
Energy | 40.2185| 1.1| 37/3
Materials | 52.5090| 2.3| 36/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -21.8100| -3.6|n/a | 49.8
RBC | -9.8530| -0.9|n/a | -10.0
Brookfield Infrastructure | -6.7320| -5.6|n/a | -15.3
Agnico Eagle Mines | 8.2640| 3.7|n/a | -5.7
Barrick Gold | 9.6900| 3.8|n/a | -7.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.0500| 1.9|n/a | 21.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell and bonds rose as signs Israel is preparing for a ground invasion of Gaza left traders looking for safety ahead of the weekend.
Gold surged the most since March.
Oil rallied.
Big tech sold off, with the Nasdaq 100 down over 1%.
Boeing Co. sank after saying it’s investigating quality issues affecting the 737 Max aircraft.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. gained on solid earnings.
Treasury 30-year yields dropped nine basis points to 4.76%, unwinding part of the previous session’s surge.
West Texas Intermediate crude topped $87 a barrel.
A sharper escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could bring Israel into a direct clash with Iran, a supplier of arms and money to Hamas, which the US and the European Union have designated a terrorist group.
In that scenario, Bloomberg Economics estimates oil prices could soar to $150 and global growth drop to 1.7% — a recession that takes about $1 trillion off world output.
“The situation in Israel is a horrible one, and if it spreads into a regional conflict, the human costs will rise exponentially, and the financial costs around the globe will begin to rise very, very quickly as well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. Investors should  get at least “some insurance against a sudden drop in the stock market between now and the end of the year,” he noted.
A sustained rise in oil prices will hurt the global economy even more, and this is clearly not good for stock markets with already-high valuations, according to Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
“The renewed rise in oil prices today, if sustained, could stoke inflationary worries further and make stagflation even worse for oil-importing countries in the Eurozone, Japan and China, among others,” Razaqzada noted. “This comes as borrowing costs have skyrocketed across the developed economies.”
Jamie Dimon warned of serious geopolitical risks as Israel prepared for a ground assault on Gaza.
“This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” the JPMorgan chief executive officer said in the bank’s third-quarter earnings statement. “The war in Ukraine compounded by last week’s attacks on Israel may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships.”
Traders also waded through the latest economic data and comments from central bank officials for clues on the policy outlook.
US consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations rose sharply in early October, driving a steep deterioration in Americans’ views of their finances as well as sentiment.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said disinflation is under way and reiterated that he favors holding interest rates where they are, barring a sharp change in data.
Corporate News
* Microsoft Corp. completed its $69 billion purchase of Activision Blizzard Inc. after a nearly two-year fight with global regulators threatened to scuttle the deal.
* Progressive Corp. gained after the insurer’s results showed an improvement in underwriting profitability.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. lifted the lower end of its annual profit forecast as lower-than-expected-medical costs helped the company beat quarterly earnings estimates.
* BlackRock Inc. clients pulled a net $13 billion from long-term investment funds, the first outflows since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
* PNC Financial Services Group Inc. said it started reducing headcount by 4% as the bank navigates fallout from higher interest rates that has eaten away at profitability.
* Dollar General Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jeff Owen stepped down after nearly a year in the role during which the shares plunged and workplace safety concerns mounted.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0514
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2141
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $26,774.46
* Ether rose 0.6% to $1,545.3
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.62%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.74%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.39%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.7% to $87.65 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 3.1% to $1,941.80 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The greater danger for most men lies, not in setting our aim too high and falling short, but in setting our aim too low and achieving our mark. –Michelangelo, 1475-1564.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com