October 5, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

October 5^th, 2011 Apple founder Steve Jobs died at age 56.  Go to article >>
1877: Chief Joseph surrender.

Tecumseh, Shawnee chief, d.1813.
Kate Winslet, actress, b. 1975.

‘Exceptional’ 1,800-year-old sarcophagus unearthed in France held woman of ‘special status’
Archaeologists excavating an ancient necropolis have unearthed a Roman-era sarcophagus containing the remains of a second-century woman. Read More.

1,400-year-old gold figures depicting Norse gods discovered at former pagan temple
Archaeologists have discovered 35 miniature gold-foil depictions of Norse gods tucked inside the remnants of a pagan temple in Norway. Read More.

Norwegian family finds 1,200-year-old Viking treasure while searching for a lost earring in their yard .
The discovery includes two roughly 1,200-year-old brooches, made from bronze and once gilded with gold, that may have belonged to an aristocratic woman.
Full Story: Live Science (10/4)

Nobel Prize in chemistry awarded to trio who discovered bizarre quantum dots
Three scientists will share the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for their discovery of strange nanoparticles that change color according to their size. Read More.

New Halloween lawn decoration creates a stir on social media
Over the past few years, a 12-foot skeleton has been the hottest Halloween decoration. Now, fans are obsessed with this item that’s selling out in stores.

Pleasant surprise greets scientists opening asteroid sample dropped from space
The asteroid sample recently collected by NASA will be unveiled in a live broadcast next week. Here’s what scientists have observed so far.

Simone Biles and US team win 7th consecutive world title
The American gymnast played a key role in a historic victory for the US in the women’s team final on Wednesday.

Comedy Wildlife Photo Award 2023 finalists revealed
The shortlist includes photos of mischievous monkeys, a startled leopard, and a very happy turtle. View some of the chucklesome finalists for the Comedy Wildlife Photo Award 2023.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
These images from the early 20th century have been revitalised with the latest colour technology:

Bathers at Siouville-Hague in Normandy, France, photographed by Gustave Gain, 1921
The Colors of Life shows us a new way of seeing the past. This world is a familiar one, and this is where the fascination lies within this collection of images. There is a striking sense of clarity to these photos, an enhanced realism, and the majority of them look as though they were shot only yesterday.

Casserole vendor on Rue Peyrolières (then Rue des Chaudrons) in Toulouse, France, photographed by Georges Chevalier, 18 April, 1916
Humphryes uses an algorithm to average out the difference between adjacent pixels in an image, which smooths and blends the individual spots of colour into a more coherent image that can be enlarged without it breaking up into constituent coloured dots.

​​​​​​​The original Moulin Rouge in Paris, France, the year before it burned down, photographed by Stéphane Passet, 24 June, 1914
We know that these people and places existed – the evidence is there in front of our eyes – but somehow, they seem less real; mere ghostly faces from a time and place long since vanished. These are people with different values, different fashion and different lifestyles than us. We cannot fully understand them because we don’t fully see them as they were in reality.
Market Closes for October 5^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.5%, or 103 to 19,137.81 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.8%.
TransAlta Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 165 of 228 shares rose, while 61 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 1.3%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* So far this week, the index fell 2.1%
* The index declined 0.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.2% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 7.1% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.3% in the past 5 days and fell 6.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 on a trailing basis and 13.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.23% compared with 14.13% in the previous session and the average of 12.86% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 27.6804| 0.5| 23/5
Energy | 20.1889| 0.6| 28/12
Materials | 19.2393| 0.9| 36/14
Utilities | 15.3131| 2.0| 16/0
Communication Services | 14.1651| 2.0| 5/0
Real Estate | 4.0467| 0.9| 20/1
Industrials | 3.3519| 0.1| 15/11
Consumer Staples | 0.8317| 0.1| 6/5
Health Care | 0.1032| 0.2| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary | -0.2851| 0.0| 5/9
Information Technology | -1.6251| -0.1| 8/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 8.5830| 0.8|n/a | -9.6
BCE | 6.8190| 2.1|n/a | -13.9
Enbridge | 5.9020| 0.9|n/a | -17.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -4.4250| -0.7|n/a | -1.2
Brookfield Corp | -5.4900| -1.3|n/a | -3.5
Shopify | -6.0140| -1.0|n/a | 52.1
US
By Cristin Flanagan and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — Stocks and bonds have backed away from the worst of this week’s slump, though key data Friday threatens to spur a fresh slide.
US equity benchmarks ended the day pointing lower Thursday after the latest data showed weekly unemployment claims holding near historical lows.
The S&P 500 has been hovering above a key support level that — should it fall below — technical analysts warn could drive a steeper drop. With the gauge already down roughly 8% from July highs, a too-healthy number from Friday’s monthly non-farm payrolls could push yields back up and stocks down.
“Tomorrow’s jobs report may be the most important one of the year,” according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader.  If the report is too hot and the yield on the US 10-year bond moves close to 5%, “we could easily see the S&P 500 fall through the 200-day moving average and at that point we could see an acceleration of the declines in stocks,” Essaye wrote in his The Sevens Report newsletter.
The yield on the US 10-year drifted down to 4.72% after touching a 16-year high around 4.88% this week.
The 30-year, which recently hit the 5% level, advanced toward 4.9% in Thursday’s session.
Wall Street has been keyed in on rising borrowing costs and saw 5% as a likely target for longer-term US government bonds, now some money managers are saying 6% is on the table.
With the US benchmark rate at a 22-year high Fed speakers reinforced the higher-for-longer message and said data would be key ahead of the November meeting.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who does not vote this year, said the market is seeing a return to a more normal rate seen in prior years.
The head of the San Francisco Fed Mary Daly — also a non-voting member — said that the central bank could hold rates steady if jobs and pricing showed signs of slowing.
“The markets are finally coming to grips with higher long-term rates, and I think we’re seeing more of that reflected in the markets,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at EverBank. “In the past, the Fed seems like they have always adjusted to the markets, but this go around, I think the markets have had to adjust to the Fed.”
Thursday’s report showed a slight rise in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits compared with the previous week.
Claims ticked up to 207,000 in the week ending Sept. 30, according to Labor Department data.
Earlier this week, the unexpected rise in August job openings spurred the rout in Treasuries.
The selloff paused after private payrolls data showed US companies added the fewest number of jobs since the start of 2021 last month.
While markets have stabilized from the recent rout, investor sentiment remains fragile. Investors are keen to see if Friday’s labor data cements bets on a November pause from the Federal Reserve.
Currently, swaps are pricing a one-in-four chance of a Fed move higher next month.
“Friday’s payrolls data, and next week’s inflation number will decide whether the 10-year Treasury yield goes up to 5% or down to 4.5%,” Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux said. A higher-than-forecast jobs number could trigger “another wave of dollar-buying and bond-selling,” he added.
In the monthly employment report, economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the US economy added 170,000 workers in September, slightly less than the previous month.
Even with markets showing signs of calm, strategists’ reports highlight deep concern about the long-term economic toll of higher-for-longer interest rates.
Barclays Plc analysts wrote in a note that global bonds are doomed to keep falling unless a sustained slump in equities revives the appeal of fixed-income assets.
“There is no magic level of yields that, when reached, will automatically draw in enough buyers to spark a sustained bond rally,” analysts led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha said. “In the short term, we can think of one scenario where bonds rally materially.  If risk assets fall sharply in the coming weeks.”
Oil extended a retreat, with WTI crude reaching below $83 per barrel for the first time since late-August.

Key events this week: 
* China has week-long holiday
* Germany factory orders, Friday
* US unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0551
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2194
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 148.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $27,498.5
* Ether fell 1.5% to $1,617.56
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.71%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.88%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $82.45 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Richard Henderson.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Loneliness is the way by which destiny endeavors to lead man to himself. -Hermann Hesse, 1877-1962.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com