October 2, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

1908: Henry Ford introduced the Model T automobile to the market; each car cost $825.  Go to article >>.

Mahatma Gandhi, b.1869.
Groucho Marx, b.1890.
Sting, b. 1951.
1968: Redwood National Park established.
1950: Peanuts comic strip debuts.

On October 2, 1869: Political and spiritual leader Mohandas K. Gandhi was born in Porbandar, India. In the image above, Gandhi, center, is surrounded by workers from his law office in Johannesburg, South Africa, 1902.  A look at what else happened in history on October 2.

Jimmy Carter celebrates 99th birthday
Former President Jimmy Carter made a surprise appearance in his hometown of Plains, Georgia, to celebrate his 99th birthday on Sunday. See his life in pictures here.

CNN got invited inside the new Las Vegas Sphere
The $2.3 billion dollar Las Vegas venue debuted this weekend with concerts by U2 — but does it live up to the hype? A CNN editor was there, and here’s what he thought.

Europe holds off late USA comeback to regain Ryder Cup
Europe’s golf pros survived a Sunday scare to regain the Ryder Cup, holding off a late US fightback in Rome.

A host of animals from camels to crocodiles were paraded through a New York cathedral to receive blessings on Sunday. Click here to view the pictures.

Mysterious and ‘beautifully carved’ life-size camel carvings discovered in Saudi Arabian desert
Life-size carvings of camels have been found in the Saudi Arabian desert, but archaeologists aren’t sure who created them and when.  Read More.

Why are rare earth elements so rare?
There are 17 rare earth elements on the periodic table, but a better name for them would be the “troublesome earths.” Here’s why.  Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Barcelona, Spain
A huge heart sculpture at Barcelona University’s faculty of medicine. The art piece by Jaume Plensa was made to raise awareness of heart-related diseases.
Photograph: Ahmed Adnan/Quds Net News/ZUMA Press/Shutterstock

Kiental, Switzerland
Rico Luginbuehl leads 77 alpacas and llamas during the Alpabzug (cow parade), from the Griesalp alpine pastures to lower ground ahead of the winter.
Photograph: Peter Schneider/EPA

Florianópolis, Brazil
A stranded sperm whale is seen on Morro das Pedras beach.  Photograph: Anderson Coelho/AFP/Getty Images.
Market Closes for October 2^nd, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1839, the Bank of the United States of Pennsylvania suspended specie payments, meaning that it stopped paying depositors in gold and silver. The move by the overextended lender triggered a financial panic. In turn, that produced a deep recession remembered as the crisis of 1839.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.9%, or 364.09 to 19,177.18 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.1% on Sept. 21.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 208 of 227 shares fell, while 19 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.3%.
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss four times. The next day, it declined after all four occasions
* This year, the index fell 1.1%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* The index advanced 4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 7.3% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.1% in the past 5 days and fell 6.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 on a trailing basis and 13.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.39% compared with 13.30% in the previous session and the average of 12.64% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -108.4393| -1.8| 2/26
Energy | -92.9561| -2.5| 0/40
Materials | -62.4562| -2.8| 1/50
Industrials | -30.2302| -1.1| 3/23
Utilities | -29.4188| -3.7| 0/16
Communication Services| -24.2079| -3.3| 0/5
Information Technology| -6.7208| -0.5| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary| -6.5621| -0.9| 1/13
Health Care | -1.4609| -2.4| 0/4
Real Estate | 0.0000| -0.1| 1/20
Consumer Staples | 6.7161| 0.8| 7/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -26.8200| -2.3|n/a | -8.9
Enbridge | -19.0300| -2.9|n/a | -17.3
TD Bank | -18.2100| -1.7|n/a | -8.3
Loblaw | 0.7490| 0.6|n/a | -3.0
Fairfax Financial | 5.0520| 2.9|n/a | 42.3
Couche-Tard | 6.0160| 1.7|n/a | 17.9
US
By Cristin Flanagan and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — The rout in Treasuries intensified and US stocks lost ground as traders digested messaging that the Federal Reserve needs to leave borrowing costs high to rein in inflation.
Yields on five-year to 30-year Treasuries rose 10 basis points on the day.
The rate on the 10-year benchmark bond hit the highest since 2007, reaching 4.7%, while the 30-year topped 4.81%, the highest since 2010.
Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said Monday, the biggest question before central bankers was how long to leave interest rates elevated while Michelle Bowman, a known FOMC hawk, reiterated her call for multiple hikes.
On Friday, New York Fed boss John Williams had suggested interest rates should stay high for some time.
The S&P 500 ended the day little changed with NextEra Energy Partners LP dragging on the US stocks benchmark after a downgrade.
Energy stocks sold off erasing the gains for the year in the S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index.
The Nasdaq 100 ended the session up 0.8% buoyed by the nation’s largest technology firms including Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp.
An early sigh of relief for stocks after a weekend deal to avoid a government shutdown was short-lived as the focus in markets quickly shifted back to interest rates.
“It’s a pretty bearish signal that the S&P 500 is down today given the fact that Congress came in and averted a risk that was on everyone’s radar as far as the government shutdown,” said Mike Harris, president of Quest Partners. “The fact that we’re not seeing a more significant rally is meaningful, and once again this move up in interest rates in large part is the market finally waking up to this reality of higher rates for longer.”
The selloff in global bonds has gathered momentum as the US shutdown reprieve prompted traders to raise bets on a November rate hike from the Fed.
They now see a roughly one-in-three chance of a November move, up from the 25% likelihood priced on Friday.
Bank of England policy maker Catherine Mann called herself a hawk on interest rate policy while warning that inflation shocks were likely to be more frequent.
Gilts underperformed in global bonds.

The dollar rose versus its Group-of-10 peers, after enjoying its best quarter in a year.
Against the yen, it touched a year-to-date high, after the Bank of Japan said it would conduct an additional buying operation.
Gold prices slipped to seven-month lows, extending last week’s 4% slide, under pressure from surging bond yields.
After crude’s biggest quarterly gain since March 2022, oil was in retreat with West Texas Intermediate dropping below $90 a barrel. 
History suggests the US needs to brace for a recession, Bloomberg economists warned.
A major auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments and the still-looming prospect of an eventual government shutdown menace recent market gains.

Key events this week: 
* China has week-long holiday
* New York Fed President John Williams moderates discussion on climate risk, Monday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on economic outlook, Monday
* US ISM manufacturing index, Monday
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on economic outlook and inflation, Tuesday
* August US JOLTS report, Tuesday
* Eurozone services and composite PMIs, Wednesday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde gives welcome address at conference, Wednesday
* US ISM services index, Wednesday
* France industrial production, Thursday
* BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman participate at panel discussion, Thursday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks at the Economic Club of New York, Thursday
* Germany factory orders, Friday
* September US nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0482
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.2093
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 149.82 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $27,955.22
* Ether was little changed at $1,673.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 12 basis points to 4.69%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.92%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 13 basis points to 4.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $88.76 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.1% to $1,846 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Matthew Burgess, Joanna Ossinger, Tassia Sipahutar and Elizabeth Stanton.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Strategy without tactics is he slowest router to victory.  Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat. -Sun Tzu, 544 BC-496 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com