September 19, 2023

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 19, 2023: The Battle of Saratoga begins in 1777, a turning point in the American Revolutionary War.  American forces defeated the British, gaining crucial support from France in the war.

September 19, 2008 Struggling to stave off financial catastrophe, the Bush administration asked Congress for $700 billion to buy up troubled mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions.  Go to article >>

1985: Mexico City earthquake,10,000 killed.

iOS 17 release: See what’s new in iPhone features
iPhone users can now update to iOS17 to unlock several new features, including FaceTime video messages and live voicemails.

Starbucks bets on China with $220 million roasting center
This is the company’s largest investment it has ever made for a coffee manufacturing and distribution center outside the US.

Humanity’s future on the moon: Why Russia, India and other countries are racing to the lunar south pole
Half a century after the first humans landed on the moon, global interest is once again rising to visit our celestial neighbor. This time, nations have their sights set on the lunar south pole. Why?  Read More.

14th-century shipboard cannon that fired ‘stone shots’ may be Europe’s oldest on record
An analysis of cloth found inside the cannon suggests that it dates to the 14th century and that the weapon was charged with gunpowder and ready to fire.  Read More.

Asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs allowed flowers to thrive in a post-apocalyptic world
Scientists have discovered flowering plants were largely unscathed by the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 million years ago, allowing them to take advantage of the new, dinosaur-free planet.  Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sandsend, UK
The aurora borealis over the North Yorkshire coast.  Photograph: Charlotte Graham/Shutterstock.

The Hague, Netherlands
Staphorst women in traditional costume arrive for budget day.  Photograph: Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock.

​​​​​​​Van, Turkey
A beekeeper harvests honey in Gevas district at an altitude of 2,000 metres.  Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.
Market Closes for September 19^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1931, the Bank of England sent a telegram to Governor Montagu Norman, at sea in the Atlantic: “Old lady goes off Monday.” He misunderstands it as a reference to his mother’s vacation. It was a heads-up Britain was abandoning the gold standard.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.3%, or 273.94 to 20,218.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.9% on Aug. 15.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 205 of 227 shares fell, while 21 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%. Equinox Gold Corp. had the largest drop, falling 20.0%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 12 times. The next day, it declined seven times for an average 0.7% and advanced five times for an average 1.2%
* This year, the index rose 4.3%, heading for the best year
since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 0.3%
* The index advanced 3.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 13.1% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022 * The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 on a trailing basis and 14.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.43% compared with 11.72% in the previous session and the average of 11.55% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -52.0184| -0.8| 4/24
Materials | -46.1767| -1.9| 9/42
Industrials | -41.9168| -1.5| 1/25
Energy | -40.8546| -1.1| 2/38
Information Technology | -33.8668| -2.2| 0/11
Utilities | -17.7841| -2.0| 1/14
Consumer Staples | -14.0949| -1.7| 0/11
Consumer Discretionary | -8.8609| -1.2| 1/13
Real Estate | -7.9144| -1.6| 0/21
Communication Services | -7.9132| -1.0| 2/3
Health Care | -2.5454| -4.0| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -15.8900| -2.4| -11.0| 66.8
Canadian National | -14.2400| -2.2| -33.1| -5.0
Brookfield Corp | -12.3200| -2.5| -17.5| 11.0
Fairfax Financial | 0.7040| 0.4| -30.2| 42.8
Methanex | 1.3060| 5.0| 201.2| 13.8
Manulife Financial | 2.9430| 0.9| -48.7| 9.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields rose and stocks fell ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with traders betting rates will be higher for longer to prevent an inflation flare-up. Brent oil briefly topped $95 a barrel.
US five- and 10-year yields hit the highest levels since 2007.
Most major groups in the S&P 500 dropped, but the gauge came well off session lows, led by gains in some mega-caps like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc.
Online grocery delivery business Instacart surged 12% in its Nasdaq debut.
Walt Disney Co. slid on plans to nearly double its theme-park spending to $60 billion over the next 10 years.
The loonie climbed after hot inflation data in Canada.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are widely expected to hold rates steady Wednesday.
Still, supply shocks such as climbing oil prices present the central bank with a quandary as they simultaneously boost inflation and curb economic growth.
Surging energy costs played a role in tipping the US into recession in the mid-1970s, as well as the early 1980s and 1990s.
“The risks for headline inflation to heat up over the next couple of months are rising and that should complicate what the Fed does,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda. “Do policymakers become convinced that despite a resilient labor market, pricing pressures will continue to ease?  If core inflation shows it is struggling to continue to drop, the higher-for-longer rate regime will last a lot longer than the market is pricing in.”
In fact, after pricing in a “peak” in interest rates in November, trader bets have recently shifted out to December — suggesting that perhaps the market is giving credence to signals of a more pronounced central bank pause, according to Christopher Jacobson at Susquehanna International Group.
Investors are keenly focused on Fed officials’ updated quarterly rate projections — known as the dot plot — that will be released Wednesday at the conclusion of the policy meeting.
High on the watchlist will be whether these forecasts continue to reveal a median view for one more quarter-point hike this year and whether forecasts for 2024 scale back the 100 basis points of rate reductions that officials foresaw in June.
To Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and FOREX.com, should the Fed revise the 2024 median plot to indicate fewer rate cuts than previously projected, that would discourage bearish bets on the dollar.
Since the Fed’s June forecasts, the disinflationary process has stabilized somewhat — but inflation risks are increasing, said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
As a result, officials will likely keep the incremental quarter-point hike in their projections, she noted — adding that a final increase would possibly be delivered in November.
“Our Fed checklist suggests the bar for rate cuts is still high,” Goodwin said. “Unless we see a meaningful economic slowdown, inflation is likely to fall in a slow and non-linear
way. In other words, for the Fed to cut rates next summer — like the bond market has priced — we believe we’d need to see a recession.”
Data Tuesday showed new US home construction dropped to the lowest level since June 2020 — highlighting the toll of declining housing affordability.
The sharp slide is concerning because housing has been one of the pillars of the economy that has held up much better than expected, said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.
“If it turns out that this is the first crack in an otherwise bulletproof consumer, then it could change the narrative from an economy that is impervious to rapid interest-rate hikes to one that is vulnerable and susceptible to a recession,” he added.

Corporate Highlights
* Starbucks Corp. slipped as TD Cowen downgraded it to market perform, flagging “worrisome” pressures that could challenge same-store sales in China.
* Deere & Co. retreated after Evercore ISI downgraded the farm-equipment company to inline from outperform.
* Block Inc. dropped as the digital-payments firm said that Alyssa Henry, the CEO of its Square business, is leaving, with Jack Dorsey to take over.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and Carnival Corp. climbed after being upgraded by Truist Securities, which cited strong trends and “cooled off” stocks.
* Cboe Global Markets Inc. rose after the firm announced a chief executive officer change that analysts described as unexpected, while they were positive on the appointment to fill the role.
* Amazon.com Inc. says it will hire 250,000 employees this holiday shopping season and boost average pay for logistics personnel to about $20.50 an hour as it seeks to recruit and retain workers amid a labor shortage.
* CVC Capital Partners is gearing up for a potential listing as soon as November amid improved investor sentiment for new stock offerings, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Key events this week:
* Japan trade, Wednesday
* China loan prime rates, Wednesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve policy meeting followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference, Wednesday
* Bank of Canada issues summary of its September policy meeting, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* Bank of England policy meeting, Thursday
* US leading index, initial jobless claims, existing home sales, Thursday
* China’s Bund Summit, Friday
* Japan CPI, PMIs, Friday
* Bank of Japan rate decision, Friday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone PMIs, Friday
* US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0681
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2396
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 147.82 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.5% to $27,176.23
* Ether rose 0.4% to $1,643.55
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.74%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.34%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $91.62 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Liz Capo McCormick and Michael Mackenzie.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. –Tecumseh, 1768-1813.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com