July 17, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Happy Monday.

On July 17, 1918, Russia’s Czar Nicholas II, his wife and their five children were executed by the Bolsheviks.  Go to article >>
1955: Disneyland opened.

‘The night turned into day’: How Manhattan Project scientists reacted to the world’s first atomic bomb test
“All of a sudden, the night turned into day, and it was tremendously bright, the chill turned into warmth; the fireball gradually turned from white to yellow to red as it grew in size and climbed into the sky.”
Read More

Who was J. Robert Oppenheimer? Biographer Kai Bird delves into the physicist’s fascinating life and legacy
Kai Bird, co-author of “American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer” opens up on the physicist’s life and legacy. Read More

A nearby supernova nearly blew our solar system to bits 4 billion years ago, new research suggests
A supernova that erupted when a massive star died could have destroyed our infant solar system — if it weren’t protected by a cocoon of molecular gas. Read More

The 2023 Wimbledon champions
Carlos Alcaraz defeated Novak Djokovic, arguably the greatest tennis player in history. And on the women’s side, Markéta Vondroušová delivered a “painful loss” to fan favorite Ons Jabeur.

Cyclists fall ‘like skittles’ at the Tour de France competition
A number of bicycle riders fell after a fan apparently tried to take a picture. See the pileup here

in memoriam
Jane Birkin, the British singer and actress who found fame in France, has died. She was 76. While her relationship with French actor and singer Serge Gainsbourg made Birkin a household name, she became a fashion star in her own right. Notably, she was the inspiration for the famous Birkin bag by French luxury house Hermes.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
A horse gets skittish and runs off riderless as the British army marks Queen Camilla’s birthday. The King’s Troop Royal Horse Artillery fired a 41-gun celebratory salute at 12 noon. It was the first formal birthday salute for Camilla since she became queen
Photograph: Guy Bell/Shutterstock

Golmud, China
Tourists visit the Qarhan salt lake in Qaidam prefecture
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Maryland, US
A participant in the annual penny-farthing race in Frederick county
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 17^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1861, the first paper money payable on demand was issued by the U.S. government. The color of the bills gave the nickname “greenbacks” to  American money.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.2%, or 35.28 to 20,226.79 in Toronto. The move was the biggest since falling 1.5% on July 6.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 7 of 11 sectors lost; 123 of 229 shares fell, while 100 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%. Parex Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.6%.
Insights
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 13.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2% in the past 5 days and rose 1.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 14.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.21t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.90% compared with 10.00% in the previous session and the average of 11.12% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -35.1243| -1.0| 11/27
Communication Services | -12.8715| -1.6| 0/5
Industrials | -12.6526| -0.5| 14/12
Utilities | -8.5176| -0.9| 0/15
Materials | -4.2624| -0.2| 27/21
Consumer Discretionary | -2.3960| -0.3| 6/9
Real Estate | -1.5828| -0.3| 10/11
Consumer Staples | 1.2104| 0.1| 3/8
Health Care | 2.7774| 5.1| 4/0
Information Technology | 8.1201| 0.5| 7/4
Financials | 30.0309| 0.5| 18/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD| Index | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.1270| -1.6| -0.9| -2.0
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.4650| -1.2| -46.4| 4.3
Enbridge | -7.2240| -1.1| 199.6| -9.1
Manulife Financial | 5.5520| 1.7| 13.7| 5.0
Constellation Software | 7.3650| 2.0| -24.9| 32.9
RBC | 9.2410| 0.7| 32.4| 1.4
US
By Emily Graffeo and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — US stocks resumed a rally as investors weighed bets the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its interest-rate hikes against evidence pointing to a slowdown in China’s economy.
The S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%, adding to last week’s historic gains amid optimism the Fed may soon be able to claim victory over inflation.
Activision Blizzard Inc. rose after Microsoft Corp. and British regulators held “productive” talks needed to clear the companies’ $69 billion tieup. Ford Motor Co. fell after cutting the price on the electric version of its F-150 truck. The dollar fluctuated, and equities in Europe and mainland China declined after gross domestic product in China grew at a slower-than- expected pace in the second quarter, increasing risks likely to hit the global economy.
“Many countries do depend on strong Chinese growth to promote growth in their own economies, particularly countries in Asia, and slow growth in China can have some negative spillovers for the United States,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Monday. “Growth has slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong. I don’t expect a recession.”
For a time, analysts believed Chinese shoppers coming out of Covid lockdowns would be able to carry the global economy — despite rising US and European interest rates. However, that narrative is looking increasingly shaky.
Yellen said she sees the US on a “good path” to bringing down inflation without a major weakening in the labor market.  Last week stocks and bonds rallied after data showed a slowdown in the rate of inflation.
“We’re in a place where inflation is becoming problem number two and problem number one is growth and people are starting to get comfortable that growth is going to be okay,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments LLC. “Anytime you see small-caps outperforming large-caps and the Nasdaq, that’s people starting to get on board with the ‘growth in the US is going to be just fine’ standpoint.”
The next pressure point for markets will be earnings, with hundreds of companies reporting over the next few weeks. S&P 500 firms are expected to post a 9% drop in profits in the second quarter, making it the worst season since 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. In Europe, it may be even worse, with a projected 12% slump.
“Running bulls could be tripped up by cracks in the economy and corporate earnings,” Saira Malik, chief investment office of Nuveen, said. “Looking at S&P 500 corporate earnings as a gauge, analyst estimates continue to be revised lower for both the second quarter of 2023 and the full year.”
In commodities, crude futures dropped as traders weighed disappointing Chinese data and restarting Libyan supplies against signs of a tightening market. Wheat futures jumped after Russia terminated a grain-export deal, jeopardizing a key trade route from Ukraine. And gold was little changed.
Key events this week:
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, cross-border investment, Tuesday
* Eurozone, UK CPI, Wednesday
* US housing starts, Wednesday
* China loan prime rates, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, Conf. Board leading index, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1241
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3076
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 138.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $29,914.27
* Ether fell 2.2% to $1,887.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.80%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.43%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $74.11 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,958.90 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Denitsa Tsekova, John Viljoen and Ksenia Galouchko.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win by fearing to attempt. –William Shakespeare, 1564-1616.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com