April 6, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On this day,1896 The first modern Olympic Games opened in Athens, Greece. Go to article >

Golf fans worldwide are turning their attention to Augusta, Georgia, today as The Masters gets underway for the 87th time. Scottie Scheffler will attempt to defend the green jacket after his dominant victory last year, while Tiger Woods gears up for his 25th appearance — which may be his last.

Mysterious mosaics depicting Medusa uncovered at 2nd-century Roman villa While excavating a villa used by ancient Roman emperors in Italy, archaeologists uncovered something unexpected: two mosaics that depict the Greek mythological figure Medusa, whose hair was made of snakes and whose gaze was said could turn people into stone. Full Story: Live Science (4/5)

The smallest and largest creatures make up most of Earth’s biomass, surprising study finds Scientists have spent five years classifying the size, mass and population of all living organisms, and at the end they made a surprising discovery — that the tiniest and largest living entities on Earth dominate by sheer mass. Full Story: Live Science (4/5)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kathmandu, Nepal
Tamang people stand in a queue to offer prayers during the Temal Jatra festival at Boudhanath Stupa
Photograph: Niranjan Shrestha/AP

Wehrheim, Germany
A hydrogen train stops at the a station north of Frankfurt
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Polar bear, vulnerable, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada
Jenny Wong says: ‘We had tracked this bear for several days, and after two weeks it was my last day out on the ice. We watched his brazen personality and curiosity as he wandered close to snowmobiles and camps. I think this image shows that you don’t need to get really close to animals to get an impactful image. We should always be conscious, when out there documenting wildlife, of the impact we have on their wellbeing.’
Photograph: Jenny Wong
Market Closes for April 6^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1998, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 9000 for the first time. In the midst of a late-1990s bull run, the Dow had only broken through 8000 just over a year earlier. It closed the day at 9033.23.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 20,196.69 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.4%. Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 148 of 232 shares rose, while 80 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.5%
* The index declined 7.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.6% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.6% below its 52-week high on April 21, 2022 and 13% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.3% in the past 5 days and fell 1.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 13.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.23t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 12.66% compared with 12.66% in the previous session and the average of 11.28% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | 17.2506| 0.6| 17/10
Financials | 10.6213| 0.2| 19/8
Utilities | 7.1449| 0.8| 14/2
Consumer Staples | 5.7181| 0.7| 9/2
Information Technology | 5.2876| 0.4| 7/5
Real Estate | 4.2133| 0.9| 19/2
Materials | 1.5539| 0.1| 33/16
Health Care | 1.3525| 2.1| 5/1
Consumer Discretionary | 1.2288| 0.2| 9/5
Communication Services | -2.4061| -0.3| 2/3
Energy | -14.8260| -0.4| 14/26
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD |Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | 9.3280| 1.4| -24.8| -0.6
Teck Resources | 7.6370| 4.3| -15.8| 17.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | 3.3180| 1.3| -62.2| 8.4
Suncor Energy | -4.0330| -1.0| -64.0| -0.7
Cenovus Energy | -7.1060| -3.0| -24.4| -8.7
Nutrien | -16.0900| -4.6| 38.1| -7.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street remained unwilling to commit to significant positioning ahead of Friday’s key jobs report, with stocks eking out gains, bonds trading mixed and the dollar barely budging.
Big tech led a rebound in equities, which also got a respite after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he doesn’t think tighter credit conditions stemming from the recent banking turmoil will tip the economy into recession. Still, uncertainties on whether the payrolls data will show inflation is cooling or fuel economic worries put many traders on hold.
As investors have aggressively priced in rate cuts this year, a “too hot” payrolls number would undermine those expectations, while a “too cold” report would add to concerns about a hard landing, according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter.
“There are two-sided risks to this jobs report for the first time in a long time, and to hold the recent rally, we will need a ‘just right’ number, otherwise we should prepare for more volatility,” Essaye noted.
In the run-up to the jobs data, the S&P 500 halted a two- day drop. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed major benchmarks, with Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. climbing at least 2.5%. Boeing Co. rose on a Bloomberg News report that the company plans to boost output of its 737 jets in a push for more cash.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, topped 3.8%. Benchmark 10-year rates dropped for a seventh consecutive session, trading near 3.3%.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast employers added nearly a quarter of a million jobs in March while the unemployment rate held at a historically low 3.6%.
The March payrolls print — as well as recent jobless claims and JOLTS data — will likely convince policymakers that rates are close to a sufficiently restrictive level, according to Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics. BE expects the Fed will deliver another quarter point hike in May, then hold rates there for the rest of the year.
It’s worth noting that Bullard also reiterated Friday that the central bank should keep raising interest rates to fight high inflation.
To Yung-Yu Ma at BMO Wealth Management, there’s probably a bit of a sweet spot where the Fed sees tangible evidence that the economy is cooling — but not too much softness.
“That ‘sweet spot’ is probably around 100,000 to 200,000 jobs created where the market can take some comfort that we’re on a softening trajectory, but one that’s not gaining momentum to the downside,” he noted.
Data Thursday showed applications for US unemployment benefits signaling the labor market still remains relatively strong, even though revisions indicated some emerging signs of softening.
“Jobless claims this morning came in a little higher than expected and that lends credence to the idea that the Fed’s rate hikes are beginning to cool down the labor market and slow down the economy,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance. “No one knows what it will take to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, but the odds are much higher that it will cause a recession – and even a significant recession – than most people are currently willing to believe.”
Bloomberg Economics’ recession-probability model, which relies on 13 indicators, sees a 97% chance of recession occurring as soon as July, up from 76% in the previous update – and that’s even before factoring in fallout from the banking crisis and oil-price shock. The 12-month-ahead recession probability remains at 100%.
The International Monetary Fund warned that its outlook for global economic growth over the next five years is the weakest in more than three decades, urging nations to avoid economic fragmentation caused by geopolitical tension and take steps to bolster productivity.
Investors, shaken by the ongoing turmoil in the banking industry and seeking higher yields, are racing into money-market funds.
About $350 billion flowed into those products in the four weeks ending April 5, according to the Investment Company Institute. That pushed assets to a record $5.25 trillion, topping the $4.8 trillion pandemic peak.
As traders parse economic data for signs of a slowdown, the upcoming earnings season will have added significance. It officially kicks off on April 14 when large US lenders including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. report results.
Analyst consensus expectations are for S&P 500 earnings- per-share to fall 7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, marking the sharpest decline since the third quarter of 2020 and a low point in the profit cycle, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Lily Calcagnini and David Kostin wrote in a note.  “If analyst projections are realized, this quarter will represent the trough in S&P 500 earnings growth,” they wrote.

Key events this week:
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Good Friday. US stock markets closed, bond markets close for part of the day

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0923
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2443
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 131.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $28,023.92
* Ether fell 1.8% to $1,871.52
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.18%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.43%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $80.51 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.7% to $2,022.20 an ounce

–With assistance from Srinivasan Sivabalan, Isabelle Lee, Carly Wanna and Emily Graffeo.

​​​​​​​
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel

Laughter is the tonic, the relief, the surcease for pain. Charlie Chaplin, 1889-1977

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff, Registered Representative

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com