March 14, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: It’s Pi Day! That’s a perfect excuse to stop being intimidated by pie-making and enjoy these pie recipes for bakers of every level.

3.14: On Pi Day, celebrate the history of the fundamental number.
On March 14, 1879, Albert Einstein, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist and one of the great thinkers of the ages, was born. Following his death on April 18, 1955, his obituary appeared in The Times. Go to obituary »
March 14, 1794: Eli Whitney is granted a patent for the cotton gin – a device for removing the seeds from cotton fiber, resulting in more profitable agricultural production.

This professional golfer’s lucky charm: grandma: At 88 years old, Scottie Scheffler’s grandmother was notably present on the sidelines of all 72 holes during last week’s TPC Sawgrass tournament — which Scheffler won.

Why it was ‘no accident’ the Obama White House was ‘scandal-free’: Former first lady Michelle Obama said her family was extra mindful of their actions while in the White House. Watch the video here.

Atmospheric rivers are the new hurricanes.

Beer-flavored popsicles.

Roman-era tomb scattered with magical ‘dead nails’ and sealed off to shield the living from the ‘restless dead’: In ancient Roman times, people may have feared the “restless dead,” according to the discovery of a cremation tomb sprinkled with intentionally bent nails and sealed not only with two dozen bricks but also a layer of plaster, a new study finds.
The unusual grave had 41 bent and twisted nails scattered along the edges of its cremation pyre, 24 bricks that had been meticulously placed on the still-smoldering pyre, and a layer of lime plaster on top of that.
Full Story: Live Science (3/13)

10 discoveries that prove Einstein was right about the universe – and 1 that proves him wrong: Despite the technical limitations of his time, Albert Einstein published his famous theory of general relativity in 1915, which made predictions about the nature of the universe that would be proven accurate time and again for more than 100 years to come.
Here are 10 recent observations that proved Einstein was right about the nature of the cosmos a century ago — and one that proved him wrong.  Full Story: Live Science (3/14)

Bizarre sand dunes on Mars are ‘almost perfectly circular,’ and scientists don’t know why: NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has captured stunning images of almost perfectly round sand dunes on the surface of the Red Planet.  While sand dunes of all shapes and sizes are common on Mars, circular dunes like these are a rare sight. Full Story: Live Science (3/14
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Mars
An image from Nasa’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows circular sand dunes on the surface of the planet
Photograph: Nasa/JPL-CalTech/University of Arizona/Reuters

London, UK
Shire horses spread seeded soil around the moat beside the Tower of London with a chain harrow. The process is part of a long-term transformation of the moat into a biodiverse landscape, one that will be rich with wildflowers
Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

London, UK
Two gallery assistants pose next to Glasgow Docks, by LS Lowry, estimated at £1.1-£1.5m, at Christie’s auction house for the Modern British and Irish Art evening sale
Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for March 14^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1821, the market was open but not a single share of stock changed hands in one of the quietest days in Wall Street history.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 19,694.16 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.2% on March 3 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.9%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.4%.
Ecn Capital Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.4%.
Today, 178 of 236 shares rose, while 57 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 1.6%
* The index declined 7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 6.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 10.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.9% in the past 5 days and fell 4.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 on a trailing basis and 12.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.13t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.06% compared with 10.40% in the previous session and the average of 8.36% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 48.4956| 0.8| 25/4
Information Technology | 30.2296| 2.4| 13/1
Materials | 21.5156| 0.9| 40/10
Utilities | 8.0794| 0.9| 15/1
Consumer Staples | 5.6911| 0.7| 9/2
Real Estate | 4.9830| 1.0| 17/5
Industrials | 4.4913| 0.2| 19/7
Consumer Discretionary | 3.9509| 0.6| 10/5
Health Care | 0.0151| 0.0| 5/2
Communication Services | -1.8241| -0.2| 5/1
Energy | -26.0881| -0.8| 20/19
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 20.5700| 4.4| -5.0| 27.4
RBC | 14.3400| 1.1| -18.8| 4.3
Nutrien | 8.4870| 2.3| -1.6| 5.3
Canadian Pacific | -5.9160| -0.9| 57.4| -1.1
Suncor Energy | -7.0880| -1.7| -41.4| 0.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -11.5600| -2.0| 159.7| -2.6
US
By Carly Wanna
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rallied into the close as traders wagered the worst of the banking turmoil has passed.
Treasuries fell.
The S&P 500 recovered much of its lost gains in the late afternoon session after a Russian fighter jet colliding with a US drone tamped down the initial enthusiasm.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq notched its biggest one-day gain in six weeks.
The relief rally in banking stocks was crimped as the KBW Bank Index ended the day with a 3.2% gain.
Remarks from ratings companies on the financial sector underscored the fragile sentiment as markets were jolted by the biggest American bank failures since the financial crisis.
Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on the sector on the heels of the trio of banking collapses over the past few days.
First Republic Bank triggered a volatility halt after S&P Global Ratings placing the company on watch negative.
The two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.3%— following a three-day swoon that was the biggest in decades amid the tumult — after data showed inflation remained elevated in February.
Swaps traders once again expect the Fed to lift rates by a quarter percentage point. Odds of an increase had slipped to nearly 50-50 on Monday.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in February, meeting economists’ forecast.
The closely watched core CPI number — which excludes food and energy — increased 0.5%, just ahead of the median estimate of 0.4%.
“The market is indecisive right now. It’s completely undecided on which way we’re supposed to go,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “At the end of yesterday it tried to price in what it thought CPI was gonna do and then CPI came in. It’s like we’re not sure what’s good and what’s bad anymore. And we’re stuck in this purgatory.”
Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter, expects that the data will keep the Fed on track to raise rates 25 basis points next week.
“Given the bank troubles, this report isn’t bad enough to put 50 bps back on the table, but if the Fed wants to maintain credibility on inflation, then this report says they have to hike again next week and not signal they are done,” Essaye wrote.  “Overall, this is an inflation update that, taken as a sole input, would suggest that a 25 bp hike next week is a foregone conclusion,” said Ian Lyngen, rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “Alas, the regional banking stress leaves next week’s decision as a wild card until there is greater clarity on the success of limiting the contagion to the rest of the banking sector from SVB/Signature.”
Elsewhere in markets, oil extended declines.
Gold slid after rising in the three previous sessions as traders turned to haven assets.
Here’s what else Wall Street is saying:

Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies trading at Mizuho International: “Although the number was higher in core MoM than expected, it is probably not sufficiently so to corner the Fed into hawkishness at the next meeting. Therefore risk assets are able to breathe a sigh of relief here, as the Fed probably has the option to go easy at the next meeting, if they feel the banking system requires it.”
Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin: “The CPI number is no game changer. After the events last week, a 50bps appeared unlikely going into the data print today and the slightly stronger than expected core inflation print puts speculation of a Fed pause to a rest.”  “The Fed is on track for another 25bps hike next week.  Equities should rebound somewhat as the Fed becomes more predictable for now. But the impact from higher rates on the economy is just starting to be felt and will likely become more and more visible as the year moves on.”
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown: “Policymakers may still feel forced to press pause on rates, despite evidence the hot inflation is still a risk, unwilling to be blamed for making a bad situation worse. While smaller banks remain under pressure, there are concerns that bigger banks could become more risk averse in lending, which could dip the economy into a sharper downturn.
James Athey, investment director at Abrdn: “Equity markets are still priced for a rosy future which looks increasingly fanciful with each passing day. I’m sure the lack of further selloff in the rates markets today will comfort some but the reality is that treasuries can sense what equities are blissfully or willfully ignoring – this sort of monetary tightening from such an extreme starting position is unequivocal bad news for a fragile and highly levered system.”
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen: “Every 24 hour period that passes where nothing else goes wrong, for the time being, maybe for the next week or so, is going to be encouraging and probably contributing to an upswing in equity prices across the board. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to leave this crisis, assuming that we’ve seen the worst of it, without any impairment at all.”  “It’s a go-ahead for 25 basis points.”
Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments: “Continued hawkishness should still be warranted, or at least that’s what the Fed will likely want to state.  It puts the Fed in a tight spot. Higher interest rates amid banking
turmoil might not be what investors want to see. However, a pause in a 0.25% hike next week only delays the inevitable.”  

Key events this week:
* China retail sales, industrial production, medium-term lending, surveyed jobless rate, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Wednesday
* US business inventories, retail sales, PPI, empire manufacturing, Wednesday
* Eurozone rate decision, Thursday
* US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Janet Yellen appears before the Senate Finance Committee, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, industrial production, Conference Board leading index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.7% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0741
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2178
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 134.15 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.4% to $25,052.27
* Ether rose 3% to $1,722.92
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 3.66%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 16 basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 3.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.3% to $71.56 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,908.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Allegra Catelli, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Out of the mountain of despair, a stone of hope. – Martin Luther King Jr., 1929-1968.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com